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Goldman lowers 30-yr mortgage rate outlook to 6% for 2024

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On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for 30-year conforming mortgage rates, lowering the expectation to 6% for the year 2024 and 6.05% for 2025. This revision comes down from its previous forecast of 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. The adjustment follows the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on September 18, which led to a reduction in the 10-year US Treasury yield forecast for the end of 2024 to 3.85% from 4.25%.

The firm’s analysts suggest that the revised mortgage rate forecasts imply there is limited room for further declines, as the current Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey rate stands at 6.08%. The expectation is that the forward path of the base yield component will primarily influence the mortgage rates. The analysts also anticipate that a gradual build-up of positive growth data and a data-dependent Fed, coupled with limited scope for fiscal consolidation, will eventually lead to a market repricing of the terminal Fed Funds rate higher, lifting intermediate yields.

Despite the potential for higher yields, tightening in the spread components, including the mortgage basis and primary-secondary spreads, could offset this increase. Goldman Sachs expects the mortgage basis and primary-secondary spreads to tighten by year-end 2024 and 2025. The mortgage basis is predicted to narrow to 120 basis points by the end of 2024 and 111 basis points by the end of 2025 from the current 129 basis points. The primary-secondary spreads are expected to tighten by 10 basis points through the end of this year and by an additional 2 basis points the following year.

The firm also notes that while lower mortgage rates have improved its Housing Affordability Index by 17% from historical lows last October, the index is still about 20% below the equilibrium level of 100. According to Goldman Sachs, the baseline forecasts for mortgage rates, home prices, and income growth indicate that the recovery of housing affordability will be gradual, barring any significant improvements on the supply side.

In other recent news, the Secure Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) recently experienced its largest single-day increase since the COVID-19 pandemic, coinciding with a substantial rise in SOFR volumes. This spike in funding rates was accompanied by an unusual pattern of Federal Reserve repo facility usage, indicating a tightening in short-term funding markets. In the same vein, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have analyzed a substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, predicting further reductions despite a healthy economy and strong labor market.

Simultaneously, escalating tensions in the Middle East have prompted a shift towards safe-haven assets, with potential implications for oil prices and market stability, as monitored by Tellimer and LPL Financial (NASDAQ:). Investors are also awaiting a critical labor market report following a series of weaker-than-expected job increases.

In international developments, Morgan Stanley anticipates further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while expecting an increase by the Bank of Japan. The firm also predicts rate cuts by the Bank of England, citing a mix of softening economic data and stable inflation.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement the analysis of mortgage rates and housing affordability, let’s examine some key metrics for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which serves as a broad indicator of the U.S. stock market performance.

According to InvestingPro data, SPY has demonstrated strong performance with a 34.87% price total return over the past year and is currently trading near its 52-week high, at 98.83% of that peak. This robust performance aligns with the overall market optimism despite concerns about interest rates and housing affordability.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that SPY has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years and maintained dividend payments for 32 consecutive years, indicating stability and consistent returns for investors. This could be particularly appealing in the context of a potentially challenging housing market.

The ETF’s current dividend yield stands at 1.23%, which, while modest, provides an additional income stream for investors who may be hesitant to enter the housing market due to affordability concerns.

It’s worth noting that InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips for SPY, providing investors with a more comprehensive analysis to navigate the current economic landscape.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Allbirds stock touches 52-week low at $7.65 amid market challenges

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In a challenging market environment, Allbirds Inc. (NASDAQ:) stock has recorded a new 52-week low, dipping to $7.65. The eco-friendly footwear company has faced significant headwinds over the past year, reflected in a substantial 1-year change with a decline of -55.8%. Investors have shown concern as the brand navigates through a competitive retail landscape and supply chain issues, which have pressured the stock to its current low. The company’s efforts to rebound will be closely watched by market participants looking for signs of a turnaround or further indications of industry-wide pressures.

In other recent news, Allbirds disclosed its Q3 2024 financial results, reporting a net revenue of $43 million. This figure reflects a downturn due to reduced unit sales and transitions to a distributor model in certain regions. Despite these challenges, the company managed to increase its gross margin to 44.4%, attributed to lower freight costs and improved inventory management.

The company also launched two new products, the Tree Glider and Lounger Lift, which have been positively received by consumers. Allbirds revised its full-year revenue guidance to between $187 million and $193 million and anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of $75 million to $71 million.

Additionally, Allbirds has signed two new international distributor agreements, expanding its reach in Latin America and Europe from mid-2025. The company’s management, led by CEO Joe Vernachio and CFO Annie Mitchell, remains optimistic about future growth, driven by forthcoming product launches and strategic marketing efforts.

InvestingPro Insights

Allbirds Inc. (BIRD) continues to face significant challenges, as reflected in its recent stock performance and financial metrics. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s revenue growth has declined by 22.67% over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, with a quarterly revenue decline of 24.89% in Q3 2024. This aligns with the InvestingPro Tip that analysts anticipate sales decline in the current year.

The company’s financial health is also concerning, with an operating income margin of -48.08% for the same period. An InvestingPro Tip highlights that Allbirds is quickly burning through cash, which is particularly worrisome given the current market conditions.

Despite these challenges, InvestingPro Tips indicate that Allbirds holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet and its liquid assets exceed short-term obligations. This could provide some financial flexibility as the company navigates its turnaround efforts.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 17 additional tips for Allbirds, providing a deeper understanding of the company’s financial position and market performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Quipt Home Medical stock hits 52-week low at $2.55

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Quipt Home Medical (TASE:) Corp. (QIPT) stock has reached a new 52-week low, trading at $2.55. This latest price point marks a significant downturn for the company, which has experienced a 46.87% decline over the past year. Investors are closely monitoring the home medical equipment provider as it navigates through a challenging period marked by this notable decrease in stock value. The 52-week low serves as a critical indicator for the market, reflecting investor sentiment and potential shifts in the company’s financial health and operational performance.

In other recent news, Quipt Home Medical Corp has been making notable strides despite facing several challenges. The company’s third fiscal quarter report revealed a steady increase in revenue, reaching $64 million, a 6.1% rise from the previous year. The customer base also expanded by 9%, serving 153,223 unique patients, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 2.7% to $14.2 million.

Benchmark revised its stock price target for Quipt Home Medical, reducing it to $7 from the previous $9, but maintained a Buy rating for the stock. This adjustment was influenced by several factors including the expiration of Medicare’s 75/25 rate relief, a diminished Managed Care contract, and the repercussions of the Change Healthcare (NASDAQ:) cyberattack. However, the firm predicts that Quipt could achieve an 8%-10% organic growth rate by the second quarter of fiscal year 2025.

In the face of these challenges, Quipt Home Medical has reported a 9% increase in resupply revenue for sleep therapy and supplies, which accounts for half of the company’s revenues. The company’s management has also indicated an active mergers and acquisitions pipeline, which could provide further growth opportunities. These are the recent developments that investors should keep an eye on.

InvestingPro Insights

Despite Quipt Home Medical Corp. (QIPT) hitting a new 52-week low, InvestingPro data reveals some interesting insights that may provide context for investors. The company’s revenue growth remains strong, with a 29.31% increase over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, reaching $244.23 million. This growth suggests that QIPT continues to expand its market presence in the home medical equipment sector.

However, profitability remains a concern. InvestingPro Tips highlight that QIPT has not been profitable over the last twelve months, with a negative P/E ratio of -24.61. On a more positive note, analysts predict that the company will become profitable this year, which could potentially reverse the stock’s downward trend.

The current market valuation implies a strong free cash flow yield, according to another InvestingPro Tip. This could indicate that the stock may be undervalued at its current price, especially considering that it’s trading near its 52-week low. Investors looking for a deeper analysis can find 7 additional InvestingPro Tips for QIPT, offering a more comprehensive view of the company’s financial situation and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Muslims who voted for Trump upset by his pro-Israel cabinet picks

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By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Muslim leaders who supported Republican Donald Trump to protest against the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza and attacks on Lebanon have been deeply disappointed by his Cabinet picks, they tell Reuters.

“Trump won because of us and we’re not happy with his Secretary of State pick and others,” said Rabiul Chowdhury, a Philadelphia investor who chaired the Abandon Harris campaign in Pennsylvania and co-founded Muslims for Trump. Muslim support for Trump helped him win Michigan and may have factored into other swing state wins, strategists believe.

Trump picked Republican senator Marco Rubio, a staunch supporter of Israel for Secretary of State. Rubio said earlier this year he would not call for a ceasefire in Gaza, and that he believed Israel should destroy “every element” of Hamas. “These people are vicious animals,” he added.

Trump also nominated Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and staunch pro-Israel conservative who backs Israeli occupation of the West Bank and has called a two state solution in Palestine “unworkable”, as the next ambassador to Israel.

He has picked Republican Representative Elise Stefanik, who called the UN a “cesspool of antisemitism” for its condemnation of deaths in Gaza, to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Rexhinaldo Nazarko, executive director of the American Muslim Engagement and Empowerment Network (AMEEN), said Muslim voters had hoped Trump would choose Cabinet officials who work toward peace, and there was no sign of that.

“We are very disappointed,” he said. “It seems like this administration has been packed entirely with neoconservatives and extremely pro-Israel, pro-war people, which is a failure on the on the side of President Trump, to the pro-peace and anti-war movement.”

Nazarko said the community would continue pressing to make its voices heard after rallying votes to help Trump win. “At least we’re on the map.”

Hassan Abdel Salam, a former professor at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities and co-founder of the Abandon Harris campaign, which endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein, said Trump’s staffing plans were not surprising, but had proven even more extreme that he had feared.

“It’s like he’s going on Zionist overdrive,” he said. “We were always extremely skeptical…Obviously we’re still waiting to see where the administration will go, but it does look like our community has been played.”

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Several Muslim and Arab supporters of Trump said they hoped Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting director of national intelligence, would play a key role after he led months of outreach to Muslim and Arab American communities, and was even introduced as a potential next secretary of state at events.

Another key Trump ally, Massad Boulos, the Lebanese father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany, met repeatedly with Arab American and Muslim leaders.

Both promised Arab American and Muslim voters that Trump was a candidate for peace who would act swiftly to end the wars in the Middle East and beyond. Neither was immediately reachable.

Trump made several visits to cities with large Arab American and Muslim populations, include a stop in Dearborn, a majority Arab city, where he said he loved Muslims, and Pittsburgh, where he called Muslims for Trump “a beautiful movement. They want peace. They want stability.”

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Richard Grenell, a top advisor to former U.S. President Donald Trump and former Acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks to the attendees of a Muslims and Bangladeshi Americans for Trump  outreach event in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. November 2, 2024.  REUTERS/Rebecca Cook/File Photo

Rola Makki, the Lebanese American, Muslim vice chair for outreach of the Michigan Republican Party, shrugged off the criticism.

“I don’t think everyone’s going to be happy with every appointment Trump makes, but the outcome is what matters,” she said. “I do know that Trump wants peace, and what people need to realize is that there’s 50,000 dead Palestinians and 3,000 dead Lebanese, and that’s happened during the current administration.”

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