Stock Markets
Interactive Brokers sees surge in election forecast trading
GREENWICH, Conn. – Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:), a leading automated global electronic broker, has reported a surge in trading of its newly launched Election Forecast Contracts. Since their introduction on October 3, 2024, over one million contracts have been traded, reflecting significant investor interest in the political prediction market.
The contracts, available through Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx exchange, offer investors the opportunity to trade on political outcomes, including the 2024 US election results, as well as economic data releases and climate indicators. These contracts have quickly gained traction, with substantial trading volume reported shortly after their release.
Thomas Peterffy, the Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, stated that the demand for these election-focused contracts indicates the growing relevance of political prediction markets. He emphasized the platform’s role in providing investors a means to hedge against political volatility and to speculate on important political, economic, and environmental outcomes.
The Election Forecast Contracts allow investors to purchase “yes” or “no” positions on various political events, such as the outcome of the US Presidential Election, control of the US House of Representatives and Senate, and key Senate races in states including Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The contract prices, ranging from $0.02 to $0.99, represent the market consensus on the likelihood of each event, with a correct prediction settling at $1 and an incorrect one at $0.
Additionally, Interactive Brokers is offering an incentive coupon with a 4.33% APY on the daily closing value of positions to encourage trading.
These Forecast Contracts are available exclusively to eligible US residents. ForecastEx LLC, the operator of the contracts, is a CFTC-regulated entity and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers.
Interactive Brokers Group has a long-standing reputation for providing sophisticated trading platforms and tools to a global clientele, including individual investors, hedge funds, and financial advisors. The company’s commitment to technology and automation has been recognized with numerous industry awards.
For more information on live market prices and details on the Election Forecast Contracts, interested parties can visit the IBKR ForecastTrader platform. This news article is based on a press release statement from Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
In other recent news, Interactive Brokers Group has been making headlines with its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company’s Q2 2024 earnings report revealed record net revenues and pretax income, with commissions reaching $406 million and net interest income setting a new quarterly high at $792 million. Jefferies and BofA Securities have updated their outlooks on the company, both maintaining a Buy rating but adjusting their price targets.
Citi also reaffirmed its Buy rating on Interactive Brokers, emphasizing the company’s ability to navigate various market conditions while maintaining profitability and growth. The firm has launched Forecast Contracts, a tool that allows investors to trade based on political event predictions, further expanding their innovative financial product portfolio.
Interactive Brokers has also reported significant growth in its September metrics, with client equity and trading activity showing notable year-over-year increases. The number of client accounts grew to 3.12 million, a 28% jump from last year. These are the recent developments for Interactive Brokers, underlining the company’s robust financial management practices and positive analyst ratings.
InvestingPro Insights
Interactive Brokers’ recent launch of Election Forecast Contracts aligns well with the company’s strong financial performance and market position. According to InvestingPro data, IBKR boasts a market capitalization of $62.62 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the brokerage industry. The company’s revenue growth of 22.02% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 indicates robust business expansion, which may be further bolstered by innovative offerings like the Election Forecast Contracts.
An InvestingPro Tip highlights that IBKR is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 0.82. This suggests that the stock may be undervalued considering its growth prospects, which could include the potential success of new products such as the Election Forecast Contracts.
Another relevant InvestingPro Tip notes that IBKR has maintained dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, demonstrating financial stability and a commitment to shareholder returns. This track record of consistent dividends may appeal to investors looking for both growth potential and income from their investments in the financial services sector.
These insights are just a sample of the valuable information available on InvestingPro. The platform offers 13 additional tips for IBKR, providing a comprehensive analysis for investors interested in delving deeper into the company’s financial health and market position.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Stock Markets
Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza over 48 hours, Palestinian officials say
By Nidal al-Mughrabi
CAIRO (Reuters) -Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 120 Palestinians over the last 48 hours and hit a hospital on the northern edge of the enclave, wounding medical staff and damaging equipment, Palestinian medics said on Saturday.
Among the dead were seven members of one family whose house was hit overnight in the Zeitoun suburb of Gaza City, the health officials said. The rest were killed in separate Israeli strikes in central and southern Gaza.
At the same time, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month.
A spokesperson for the armed wing of Hamas said a female Israeli hostage in the group’s custody had been killed in a northern area under attack by Israeli forces.
“The life of another female prisoner who used to be with her remains in imminent danger,” spokesperson Abu Ubaida added, accusing the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being to blame.
An Israeli military spokesperson said it was investigating the Hamas report.
“At this point, we are unable to confirm or deny it,” the spokesperson said. “Hamas continues to engage in psychological terrorism and act in a cruel manner.”
A group representing hostages’ families did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
DAMAGE, INJURIES AT HOSPITAL
Israel’s military says its operations in northern Gaza aim to prevent Hamas fighters from carrying out attacks and regrouping. Local residents say they fear the goal is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, something Israel denies.
At Kamal Adwan Hospital, one of three medical facilities on the northern edge of Gaza that is barely operational, director Hussam Abu Safiya said the ongoing Israeli bombardment in the area appeared aimed at forcing hospital staff to evacuate – something they have refused to do since the incursion began.
“Yesterday (Friday), from the afternoon until midnight, the bombardment directly targeted the entrance to the emergency and reception area several times,” he said in a statement, adding that 12 staff members including doctors and nurses were injured.
The strike also caused significant damage that disrupted the electrical generator, oxygen supply network and water supply, he added.
Asked to comment on Abu Safiya’s statement, the Israeli military said that following an initial review it was “not aware of a strike in the area of the Kamal Adwan Hospital”, adding that it does everything possible to avoid harming civilians.
Israel says Hamas uses hospitals and civilians as human shields, and has made public videos and photos to support that claim. Hamas rejects the allegations and says it does not use the civilian population or facilities for military purposes.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza officials.
The war was launched in response to an attack by Hamas-led fighters who killed 1,200 people and captured more than 250 hostages in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has said.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar having suspended its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
Hamas wants a deal that ends the conflict, and leads to the release of Israeli and foreign hostages held captive in Gaza as well as Palestinians jailed by Israel, while Netanyahu has said the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.
Stock Markets
Trump expected to pick Brooke Rollins to be agriculture secretary, WSJ reports
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pick Brooke Rollins (NYSE:), president of the America First Policy Institute, to be agriculture secretary, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
If confirmed, Rollins would lead a 100,000-person agency with offices in every county in the country, whose remit includes farm and nutrition programs, forestry, home and farm lending, food safety, rural development, agricultural research, trade and more. It had a budget of $437.2 billion in 2024.
Trump’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The nominee’s agenda would carry implications for American diets and wallets, both urban and rural. Department of Agriculture officials and staff negotiate trade deals, guide dietary recommendations, inspect meat, fight wildfires and support rural broadband, among other activities.
The America First Policy Institute is a right-leaning think tank whose personnel have worked closely with Trump’s campaign to help shape policy for his incoming administration. She chaired the Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term.
If confirmed, Rollins would advise the administration on how and whether to implement clean fuel tax credits for biofuels at a time when the sector is hoping to grow through the production of sustainable aviation fuel.
The nominee would also guide next year’s renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, in the shadow of disputes over Mexico’s attempt to bar imports of genetically modified corn and Canada’s dairy import quotas.
Trump has said he again plans to institute sweeping tariffs that are likely to affect the farm sector.
He was considering offering the role to former U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler, a staunch ally whom he chose to co-chair his inaugural committee, CNN reported on Friday.
Stock Markets
ICC warrants are binding, EU cannot pick and choose, EU’s Borrell says
By Michele Kambas
NICOSIA (Reuters) – European Union governments cannot pick and choose whether to execute arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against two Israeli leaders and a Hamas commander, the EU’s foreign policy chief said on Saturday.
The ICC issued the warrants on Thursday against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged crimes against humanity.
All EU member states are signatories to the ICC’s founding treaty, called the Rome Statute.
Several EU states have said they will meet their commitments under the statute if needed, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has invited Netanyahu to visit his country, assuring him he would face no risks if he did so.
“The states that signed the Rome convention are obliged to implement the decision of the court. It’s not optional,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said during a visit to Cyprus for a workshop of Israeli and Palestinian peace activists.
Those same obligations were also binding on countries aspiring to join the EU, he said.
“It would be very funny that the newcomers have an obligation that current members don’t fulfil,” he told Reuters.
The United States rejected the ICC’s decision and Israel said the ICC move was antisemitic.
“Every time someone disagrees with the policy of one Israeli government – (they are) being accused of antisemitism,” said Borrell, whose term as EU foreign policy chief ends this month.
“I have the right to criticise the decisions of the Israeli government, be it Mr Netanyahu or someone else, without being accused of antisemitism. This is not acceptable. That’s enough.”
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has killed about 44,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population while creating a humanitarian crisis, Gaza officials say.
Israel began its offensive after the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people in southern Israel, with more than 250 others taken hostage, Israel has said.
In their decision, the ICC judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution and starvation as a weapon of war as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza”.
The warrant for Masri lists charges of mass killings during the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Israel says it has killed Masri.
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