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Bitcoin Price Analysis: The 2 Most Probable Scenarios For BTC in the Short Term

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Bitcoin’s price remains in a state of indecision, confined within a tight consolidation range bounded by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

An impending breakout from this range will likely determine the asset’s short-term direction.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has been stuck in a multi-month consolidation between the $55K-$71K price range since March 2024, with no clear trend or direction emerging.

This prolonged period of sideways movement indicates an overall equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with accumulation occurring at the lower end of the range and distribution at the top. Despite this, a bearish sign has recently appeared as Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average at $63.4K.

However, the downward momentum was halted upon reaching the 100-day moving average at $61K, where the price has since entered a phase of low-volatility consolidation.

Bitcoin is squeezed within a narrow range, constrained by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that an impending breakout could determine its short-term direction. A decisive move outside this range would likely signal the next major trend.

btc_price_chart_1210241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, an ascending wedge pattern has formed during the recent prolonged consolidation phase. The price has been oscillating between this wedge’s upper and lower boundaries, which typically points to a continuation of the initial bearish trend if it breaks downward.

Following increased selling pressure near the 0.786 Fibonacci OTE level, Bitcoin experienced a significant rejection, causing the price to cascade toward the wedge’s lower boundary.

BTC is consolidating after receiving support at this level, but sellers aim to break below the wedge’s lower trendline, which coincides with the $60K support region. Should this breakdown occur, the next critical target for Bitcoin will be the $58K support region.

btc_price_chart_1210242
Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

One key on-chain metric for understanding Bitcoin market behavior is the realized price UTXO age bands. This metric highlights the average price at which holders acquired their coins, broken down by how long they’ve held them.

Historically, the realized price in the 3-6 months (short-term) and 6-12 months (long-term) cohorts have served as critical support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin struggles to break above the average buy price of these groups, it often signifies a bearish trend. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency can break above this realized price, it suggests growing bullish momentum, as new buyers are willing to hold even at higher levels.

At present, Bitcoin’s price is hovering between the realized prices of these two groups:

  • $64K for the short-term holders (3-6 months)
  • $55K for the long-term holders (6-12 months)

Bitcoin recently surged toward the 3-6 month holders’ realized price of $64K, indicating a test of this key resistance level. A successful breakthrough above this level could signal upward momentum and potentially continue the bullish trend. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above this zone, it may suggest renewed selling pressure from short-term holders, leading to bearish retracements toward the $55K level.

Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

XRP Prices Hit 7-Week Peak as This Crucial Metric Suggests Further Gains

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There’s an evident uptick in the cryptocurrency market, especially when it comes to altcoins, as many have marked notable gains of up to 5% on a 24-hour scale.

Ripple’s native cross-border token is among the examples, as the asset jumped to $2.4 for the first time since late May today.

XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

One of the possible reasons behind the price pumps in the past few hours could be linked to US President Trump’s call for a massive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After all, riskier assets like crypto should benefit from such a monetary move.

XRP is among the top performers on a daily scale, climbing by nearly 4% and reaching the aforementioned seven-week peak. Moreover, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency has gained over 25% since its monthly bottom at the end of June at $1.9 during the Israel-Iran war.

According to data shared by Santiment, Ripple’s price pump could also be attributed to large investors accumulating substantial portions of its supply. In fact, the number of wallets holding at least a million XRP reached a new all-time high yesterday at 2,743. Today, the number is just shy of that peak, Santiment said.

The analytics platform believes this shows growing confidence in XRP’s future. Additionally, smaller (retail) investors could follow suit by seeing this accumulation pattern by the so-called ‘smart money,’ which might result in further gains for Ripple’s token.

The XRP Army has certainly been vocal about its bullish belief in the asset’s price trajectory, and some analysts have indicated that reclaiming the $2.38 resistance could result in a quick 12% surge to $2.60.

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Bitcoin Price Rises Above $109K as Trump Calls for Biggest Interest Rate Cut in History

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US President Donald Trump continues to state that the nation’s central bank keeps the interest rates too high and urged for another cut.

Unlike the previous similar occasions, though, he was rather radical this time, claiming that the Federal Reserve needs to slash the rates by at least three points.

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the US now pays well over $3 billion in interest alone per day. If Trump’s recommendation is followed by the Fed, then, he said, it would save $360 billion per year.

However, the analysts at Kobeissi said the only debt that matters is the public one, which is at around $29 billion. Their analysis claims that if the rates on that entire amount are cut by 300 bps, the “US could save $290B x 3 = $870B/year.”

“However, refinancing all of this debt immediately would be impossible. Realistically, 20% could be refinanced in year 1 to save ~$174B.”

Although these numbers sound promising, there are certain drawbacks to such a potential rate cut, especially when it comes to inflation. It would be three times bigger than the current record seen in March 2020, when the Fed reduced the rates by 100bps.

The Kobeissi Letter further warned that mortgage rates would drop from 7% to 4% into a market that “has already seen prices rise +50% since 2020.” The analysts suggested that prices can surge by another 25%.

Nevertheless, such a move should be highly beneficial for riskier assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s price is up by around 1% in the past day, and since Trump’s recommendation, it now stands close to $110,000.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
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Threshold Network’s tBTC is Now live on Sui: Ushering in a new era for Bitcoin DeFi

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[PRESS RELEASE – Texas, United States, July 9th, 2025]

Key Takeaways:

  • Resolving Bitcoin’s Utility Paradox: tBTC on Sui Eliminates the Choice Between Security and Utility.
  • Web3 Benefits with Web2 Ease: Experience Bitcoin DeFi with 400ms finality and near-zero fees on Sui’s high-performance network.
  • Unprecedented Capital Efficiency: Bitcoin liquidity flows freely across an ecosystem of protocols, maintaining deep liquidity without fragmentation.
  • Complete Bitcoin DeFi Suite: Immediate access to trading, lending, and leveraged DeFi strategies through tBTC, backed by 1:1 Real Bitcoin.

tBTC Meets Sui: Liberating Bitcoin from Digital Vaults

Threshold and Sui have announced a major integration to bring tBTC, the leading decentralized Bitcoin asset, to the Sui blockchain, engineered for mass adoption. This collaboration unlocks access to over $500 million in Bitcoin liquidity for Sui’s high-performance DeFi ecosystem, known for its near-zero fees, sub-second finality, and exceptional capital efficiency.

Threshold Network’s tBTC is a decentralized, trust-minimized onchain version of Bitcoin that preserves Bitcoin’s core principles while enabling liquidity across DeFi ecosystems. Now live on Sui, tBTC empowers users to trade, lend, and engage in advanced DeFi strategies within a secure, scalable environment, with transaction finality as fast as 400 milliseconds.

Sui will be the first non-EVM chain to support direct minting on the Threshold app, expanding accessibility and reinforcing its position as a premier destination for Bitcoin liquidity. On Sui, tBTC can participate in DeFi strategies within a high-speed, scalable environment—from trading and lending to more specialized use cases, such as serving as collateral on protocols like Bucket, while preserving its core properties.  

“Bitcoin was designed to be used, not locked away,” says Callan “Sap” Sarre, Co-founder and CPO at Threshold Labs. “With tBTC on Sui, we’re combining the security of threshold cryptography with a high-throughput network to create a new standard for Bitcoin utility.

The integration will expand Sui’s growing Bitcoin ecosystem across four Sui-native protocols:

  • Bluefin: Trade tBTC across select pairs and unlock additional APR rewards.
  • Bucket: Save, spend, and explore Bitcoin-powered DeFi with ease.
  • AlphaLend: Access advanced lending pairs and APR% rewards by supplying tBTC.
  • AlphaFi: Enable high-leverage BTC DeFi strategies with auto-looping vaults.

Additionally, users can also mint tBTC directly on Sui via the Threshold dApp, providing a secure and easy access point to BTCFi. Key benefits of tBTC on Sui include:

  • Sub-Second Finality: Transactions complete in 400 milliseconds.
  • Eliminate Fragmentation: Move Bitcoin seamlessly between protocols with near-zero fees.
  • True Sovereignty: No reliance on centralized custodians.
  • Web3 Power, Web2 UX: Fast, cheap, and user-friendly.

Lastly, Wormhole will serve as the key interoperability provider for tBTC’s expansion to the Sui network. A dedicated bridge enabling users to move tBTC from other networks to Sui will soon be available on the Portal website. This integration will streamline cross-chain activity, making it easier for users to access Bitcoin DeFi across various ecosystems, including Sui, Ethereum, and others.

“We’re excited to support Bitcoin’s growth on Sui through Wormhole’s cross-chain infrastructure,” said Robinson Burkey, Co-Founder of Wormhole. “This integration advances Bitcoin’s interoperability and unlocks new DeFi opportunities while preserving the security and decentralization users expect.”

Enhanced Bitcoin DeFi Experience

Bitcoin DeFi is thriving on Sui, with a significant portion of Sui’s TVL now composed of BTC-backed assets. Since February 2025, a substantial amount of Bitcoin volume has flowed into Sui-native protocols. The integration of tBTC will strengthen this ecosystem by:

  • Unlocking seamless Bitcoin liquidity on Sui through direct tBTC minting.
  • Supporting leveraged DeFi strategies without compromising decentralization.
  • Delivering frictionless DeFi interactions backed by industry-grade infrastructure.

As the world’s most valuable digital asset gains momentum and utility, Bitcoin expands beyond serving as a store of value to power decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

Strategic Three-Month Campaign

To support the launch of Threshold’s tBTC on Sui, Threshold and Sui are kicking off a three-month campaign to facilitate long-term adoption. The initiative includes protocol-level developer support and ecosystem-wide activations to ensure the Bitcoin Standard flourishes in modern DeFi applications. This also includes limited-time incentives on select Sui DeFi Protocols, namely Bucket, AlphaLend, and Bluefin.

“BTC is expected to bring a massive amount of Bitcoin liquidity to Sui, creating a bridge that truly matters for institutions and everyday people who love Bitcoin,” said Adeniyi Abiodun, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Mysten Labs, the original contributors to Sui. “This integration opens another door to accessible, sovereign BTCfi participation.

Getting Involved

Bitcoin was never meant to sit idle. With tBTC on Sui, it won’t have to. Users can get involved in this campaign by:

Learn more about Sui and the Threshold Network at sui.io and https://threshold.network, or follow them on X at @SuiFoundation and @TheTNetwork.

About Threshold Network

Threshold Network is the decentralized protocol behind tBTC, a fully non-custodial, 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset secured by a 51-of-100 threshold signer model. tBTC enables native BTC to move across chains like Ethereum, Base, BOB, and Arbitrum without requiring custodians or compromising security. With over $ 500 M in TVL and over $ 3.6 B in bridge volume, Threshold offers the most battle-tested, trust-minimized Bitcoin infrastructure in DeFi. For more information about Threshold Network, users can visit https://threshold.network.

About Sui

Sui is a first-of-its-kind Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract platform designed from the ground up to make digital asset ownership fast, private, secure, and accessible to everyone. Its object-centric model, based on the Move programming language, enables parallel execution, sub-second finality, and rich on-chain assets. With horizontally scalable processing and storage, Sui supports a wide range of applications with unrivaled speed at low cost. Sui is a step-function advancement in blockchain, providing a platform on which creators and developers can build amazing, user-friendly experiences. For more information about Sui, users can visit https://sui.io.

Disclaimer: This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed. Nothing in this press release should be considered investment advice.

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