Forex
British inflation sends pound briefly below $1.30, dollar firm on Fed outlook, potential Trump win
By Alun John and Kevin Buckland
LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -Sterling tumbled to its lowest in two months on Wednesday after softer than expected British inflation data offered scope for the Bank of England to cut rates more forcefully, while the euro was at a 10-week low ahead of a European Central Bank meeting.
The pound dropped to as low as $1.2984, dipping under the $1.30 level for the first time since Aug. 20, after data showing the rate of annual consumer price inflation dropped to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August.
That was the lowest reading since April 2021, was under the 1.9% forecast by a Reuters poll of economists. It reinforced bets on a BoE interest rate cut next month and made a further cut in December more likely.
Sterling recovered a little ground in morning trading in Europe and was last 0.42% lower on the day at $1.3018.
“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year,” said Francesco Pesole FX strategist at ING.
“We think that has incidentally opened the door for a period of underperformance by sterling,” he said, adding they see the pound trading well below $1.30 and the euro above 84 pence.
The common currency was last 0.44% higher on the pound at 83.67 pence.
SOLID DOLLAR
Moves elsewhere were less dramatic but the euro was at $1.0891, steady on the day but pinned at its lowest since Aug 2, having been hurt by traders pricing out rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and including a potential election win by former President Donald Trump – seen as a dollar positive – in their thinking.
Investors will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s meeting Thursday, though if policy makers deliver the currently priced 25 basis point rate cut and President Christine Lagarde refrains from giving too many clues about the further rate outlook, the market impact could be muted.
Across the Atlantic, traders have laid 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool. A month ago, traders saw greater than 29% odds of a super-sized 50-basis-point reduction.
Market pricing still strongly favours a total of 50 basis points of easing this year, but comments from central bankers overnight leaned hawkish. The Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic said he pencilled in just one 25 basis-point rate reduction for this year, while the San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said “one or two” cuts in 2024 would be “reasonable”.
The dollar added 0.1% to 149.37 yen, not far from Monday’s high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1.
BOJ board member Seiji Adachi said on Wednesday the central bank must raise rates at a “very moderate” pace and avoid hiking prematurely, given uncertainties over the global economic outlook and domestic wage developments.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars sagged as scepticism widened over stimulus from top trading partner China.
The dropped as much as 0.51% to $0.6669, the lowest since Sept. 12, before recovering to $0.6684, while the sank as much as 0.69% to $0.6041, a level last seen on Aug. 19.
“There’s definitely been some building scepticism about China’s real commitment to the kind of fiscal support that would be seen as really cathartic,” and that is pulling down the Australian and New Zealand currencies this week, said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:).
New Zealand’s currency was also weighed down further by data showing cooling inflation, keeping the door open for aggressive easing by the central bank.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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