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Commodities

Expect slower oil-production growth in 2025: Wells Fargo

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Investing.com — Wells Fargo analysts anticipate a deceleration in global oil-production growth for 2025, pointing to persistent cost pressures and supply constraints. 

The analysts said that although prices have seen fluctuations in 2024, they remain largely unchanged from the start of the year. 

This volatility reflects a tug-of-war between concerns about the global economy and shrinking production capacity, with the latter expected to dominate next year.

One critical factor cited is the rising cost of drilling new wells, which is expected to further constrain production. 

As per Wells Fargo, the average breakeven cost for new wells in the U.S. now hovers around $65 per barrel—an increase of 6% from 2023. 

With current prices, such as West Texas Intermediate trading near $72 per barrel, barely above breakeven levels, the incentive to ramp up drilling remains limited. 

This economic reality is likely to inhibit production growth in the U.S., the world’s largest producer, and other key regions, leading to tighter supply conditions in the coming year.

On the demand side, the report points to expectations of economic recovery, spurred by monetary easing cycles undertaken by global central banks. 

As interest rates decline and liquidity increases, demand for energy, including oil, is expected to rebound. Wells Fargo argues that these combined supply and demand dynamics could result in higher oil prices throughout 2025.

This forecast reflects broader challenges within the oil sector, where structural issues have limited production capacity. 

Despite technological advances, oil-producing countries continue to struggle with scaling output, and production increases remain incremental rather than transformative. 

These constraints suggest that even if demand surges, meeting it through increased production could prove difficult. 

As Wells Fargo concludes, the convergence of higher costs, supply constraints, and a recovering global economy points toward tighter market conditions and elevated oil prices ahead.

Commodities

US lawmakers question oil service company’s SLB’s exception to Russian sanctions

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By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Dozens of U.S. Representatives from both political parties urged the Biden administration to toughen sanctions on Russian oil shipments and questioned an exception issued to the world’s largest oilfield company SLB to operate in the country.

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and European countries have sought to cut Moscow’s energy revenue for fighting the war through sanctions. That prompted several oilfield service companies to leave Russia but SLB has remained operating in the country, helping keep Russian oil production flowing.

The 52 lawmakers, including Democratic Representatives Jake Auchincloss and Lloyd Doggett and Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, said that since the invasion in February 2022, SLB has signed new contracts, recruited hundreds of staff, and imported nearly $18 million in equipment into Russia.

“This U.S.-based company is keeping (Russian President) Vladimir Putin’s war machine well-oiled with financing for the barbaric invasion of Ukraine. We urge you to continue supporting our Ukrainian allies by pursuing more rigorous oil sanctions to effectively restrict Putin’s profits,” the lawmakers said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The departments of Treasury and State did not immediately respond to requests for comment. SLB did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The lawmakers said President Joe Biden’s administration has pointed to a Treasury Department general license that authorizes U.S. persons to process energy-related transactions that involves certain sanctioned Russian financial institutions.

“We are cognizant of the arguments often cited that

Russian oil provides a critical and irreplaceable segment of the global oil supply,” the lawmakers said. “However, allowing Russia to benefit from Western technology and expertise only increases the resiliency of their oil and gas sector against Western sanctions and prolongs its ability to finance its illegal offensive.”

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The entrance to oilfield service provider SLB's office in Houston, Texas, showing the former Schlumberger's new name and logo, is seen in this handout image taken June 2023. Courtesy of SLB/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY./File Photo

In May, Assistant Secretary of State Geoffrey Pyatt told Reuters that SLB had not violated sanctions against Russia.

SLB last year received 5% of its revenue from Russia. It had 10,000 employees in Russia helping energy firms pump oil and gas when the war began in 2022.

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Venezuela arrests former oil minister Tellechea

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CARACAS (Reuters) -Venezuelan authorities have arrested former industry and oil minister Pedro Tellechea, Attorney General Tarek Saab said on Monday, the latest high-profile detention connected to management of Venezuela’s sanctioned oil industry.

In a statement on Instagram, Saab said Tellechea had been arrested in the early hours of Sunday for alleged “grave crimes against the highest interests of the nation.”

Tellechea, 48, was detained with his closest collaborators, the statement said, without naming them, adding that Tellechea handed over part of state oil firm PDVSA to a company controlled by U.S. intelligence services.

Tellechea had announced his resignation as industry minister in a social media post on Friday, citing health issues.

In August, President Nicolas Maduro conducted a large-scale cabinet shake-up that moved Tellechea from the oil ministry to the industry ministry and handed the country’s key oil brief to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.

Tellechea had been tasked with battling the state firm’s endemic corruption and boosting its finances when he was appointed to head the company in January 2023. Two months later, his brief expanded to include the oil ministry.

A corruption probe into PDVSA led to a string of major arrests in April, including former oil minister Tareck El Aissami, who had once been one of Maduro’s most influential officials.

Tellechea won worker support in his previous role as head of state petrochemical firm Pequiven by occasionally including Nutella, the hazelnut and chocolate spread which is a rare luxury in Venezuela, in monthly employee food boxes.

OPEC-member Venezuela is one of Latin America’s major oil producing countries, but its crude output has fallen sharply during Maduro’s more than decade in power due to under-investment as well as five years of U.S. sanctions on the industry.

The country’s oil production has slightly rebounded in recent years.

Following Venezuela’s July election that authorities say Maduro won but which the opposition says was a resounding victory for its candidate, some in the opposition have asked U.S. officials to amend or withdraw oil licenses that provide income to the government.

© Reuters. Venezuela's Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea leaves after a press conference, in Caracas, Venezuela April 16, 2024. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa/File Photo

The Biden administration earlier this year temporarily drew down strict Trump-era oil sanctions on the back of an election deal between the government and the opposition. They were reimposed soon after, with the U.S. saying Maduro had failed to comply with the deal.

U.S. officials have said Washington is closely studying possible new sanctions.

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Oil prices rise nearly 2%, recovers some of last week’s 7% decline

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By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Monday, recouping some of last week’s more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and expected Israeli retaliation on Iran worrying markets about supply from the region. 

futures were up $1.23, or 1.68%, at $74.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $1.34, or 1.94% higher, at $70.56 a barrel.

Brent settled more than 7% lower last week, while WTI lost around 8%. Those were the contracts’ biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, due to slowing economic growth in China and falling risk premiums in the Middle East.

Israeli forces besieged hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday, medics said, as they stepped up operations against Palestinian militants. Israel also carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s financial arm in Lebanon.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make another push for a ceasefire when he heads to the Middle East on Monday, the State Department said, seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and also defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon.

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut on Monday on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, two sources told Reuters. 

“Crude futures getting a lift this morning as escalated fighting continues in Middle East… Israel is also preparing for more retaliatory attacks likely into Iran,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.    

“The sell-off in crude over the past two weeks was mostly on long liquidation as the crude market continues to search for an equilibrium between slowing demand and continued unrest in the Middle East,” he added.

China on Monday cut benchmark lending rates as anticipated, part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.

Data on Friday showed China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.

China’s oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing as the world’s No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:)’s CEO told an energy conference in Singapore on Monday that he was still “fairly bullish” on China’s oil demand in light of stepped-up policy support aimed at boosting growth, and on rising demand for jet fuel and liquid-to-chemicals.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Monday repeated that he expects “modest” interest-rate cuts over the coming quarters, though a sharp weakening of labor markets could move him to advocate for faster rate cuts.

Lower interest rates cut the cost of borrowing, which can spur economic activity and boost demand for oil.

© Reuters. A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/ File Photo

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that weekly oilfield production rose by 100,000 barrels per day to a record 13.5 million bpd during the week ended Oct. 11.

oil stockpiles likely rose by about 100,000 barrels last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

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