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Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant

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Historical data shows bitcoin (BTC) performing well in the fourth quarters of previous bull cycles, especially in halving years. Current on-chain data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is following previous patterns and is on track to another remarkable Q4.

A report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that bitcoin’s price rally in the coming weeks could be sustainable because demand for the asset is recovering and growing at the fastest monthly pace since April.

Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance

During bitcoin’s seasonal performance in the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the cryptocurrency increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, in their fourth quarters. CryptoQuant analysts found that BTC is behaving very similarly to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.

This positive performance is driven by the spike in apparent demand for BTC, which recorded a monthly growth of 177,000 BTC last week, its largest reading since April. Apparent demand refers to the difference between BTC production (mining issuance) and changes in its inventory (supply inactive for more than a year). This metric reached 496,000 BTC in early April, shortly after BTC rallied above $72,000 in March.

The surge in this metric preceded an over 5% rally in the price of BTC. The cryptocurrency touched a ten-week high of $68,100 earlier this week and was changing hands at $67,900 at the time of writing.

Demand Is Growing

Furthermore, the rise in BTC demand can be seen in the increased purchases of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products have been net buying roughly 8,000 BTC recently, their highest daily purchase since July 21.

Large bitcoin investors (whales) are also expanding their holdings, with their balances growing by 670,000 BTC yearly. Additionally, the growth of whale holdings stands above its 365-day moving average, which is considered a positive sign for prices.

CryptoQuant says the expansion of bitcoin’s apparent demand is necessary for BTC to surge sustainably to record highs. Historical data shows how positive and growing apparent demand led BTC price rallies in 2020-2021 and earlier this year. Apparent demand in those cases peaked at 490,000-550,000 BTC; however, current demand stands at 177,000 BTC. Hence, there is more room for growth.

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VeChain Kicksoff $15M StarGate Staking Program After SEC’s Staking Clarity

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Layer 1 blockchain platform, VeChain, is set to launch its $15 million StarGate staking program on July 1. The latest rollout is expected to be one of its largest incentive initiatives amid broader industry interest in staking adoption following SEC guidance.

According to the official press release shared with CryptoPotato, the new program arrives days after the SEC clarified that protocol staking does not constitute a securities offering.

$15M StarGate Staking Program

StarGate introduces direct-from-protocol staking on the VeChainThor blockchain, utilizing NFT technology, which enables holders with as few as 10,000 VET to participate while earning higher rewards under the network’s upgraded Weighted Delegated Proof of Stake system.

The program forms a core part of the VeChain Renaissance roadmap, which is the blockchain’s most significant technical overhaul to date, and features enhanced tokenomics, EVM equivalence, and a reworked staking structure. The primary goal of these features is to make VeChainThor more appealing to developers and institutional participants.

In an effort to drive early adoption, the VeChain Foundation has allocated 5.48 billion VTHO tokens, which are valued at approximately $15 million. This will provide a six-month bonus rewards pool that will boost APY for participants who migrate their nodes or stake VET during the program’s initial phase.

Approved staking tiers will range from the Dawn tier, requiring 10,000 VET, to the Mjolnir X tier, requiring 15.6 million VET. The structure also offers higher yields for larger commitments, while smaller holders will still earn rewards within the new system.

VeChain Applauds SEC Ruling on Staking

The launch comes as ETF issuers and banks weigh staking integrations following the SEC’s landmark decision wherein the agency ruled that protocol staking does not constitute a securities offering, and removed registration requirements for solo, self-custodial, and custodial staking. Applying the Howey test, the SEC found that staking rewards stem from participants’ actions, not others’ efforts.

Responding to this clarification, VeChain CEO and Founder, Sunny Lu, said,

“The SEC’s recent guidance validates what we’ve been building toward: a fully compliant, accessible staking model that treats rewards as compensation for network services rather than investment returns. Our innovative approach of leveraging NFTs to represent participation ensures both simplicity for users and full regulatory alignment.”

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Hackers Suck at Trading: The Story of How This Fraudster Lost $7M Trading ETH

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An on-chain analytics firm analyzes the losses from a fraudulent wallet.

The beauty of trading on-chain lies in the fact that every transaction is 100% public – that goes for both professional traders, beginners, and, believe it or not – even hackers.

This is the story of a supposed fraudster who lost millions in a bad trade.

Hackers Are Not Savvy Traders

Lookonchain, a popular blockchain analysis firm, noted the activity early this morning on its account on the social media platform X.

The wallet in question, which, according to the analysts is linked to illicit hacking activities, received 12,282 Ethereum (ETH) three months ago, valued at around $23.72 million at that time, and sold it at $1,932 per coin.

Earlier today, the same culprit purchased 4,958 ETH at $2,495, totaling $ 12.37 million.

This results in a de-facto loss of around $6.9 million, as noted by Lookonchain.

It’s Not Just Cybercriminals Out Of Luck

As CryptoPotato reported yesterday, it’s not just bad actors that wind up out of pocket.

We noted two separate instances in which two traders, cumulatively, lost multiple millions on very high-risk, overleveraged trades.

Both were testing their luck with 40x and even 50x leverage, only to see their positions shrink as the markets did not turn in their favor.

One tried one too many times to come on top, and the other one failed to realize a significant profit.

This just goes to show that testing fate can quickly lead to an enormous shortfall, regardless of the trader’s intention and the manner in which the funds used for the transactions were obtained.

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Shiba Inu-Themed Meme Coin Tanks After OKX Says Goodbye: Details

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TL;DR

  • A popular meme coin within SHIB’s ecosystem nosedived by double digits after OKX withdrew its support.
  • Team member LUCIE addressed the panic, urging users to embrace DeFi over centralized platforms and warning that even major exchanges aren’t immune to collapse.

BONE Heads South

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is a meme coin that has evolved into a robust ecosystem over the past few years. One of the most popular tokens within the network is Bone ShibaSwap (BONE).

The asset has not been in its best shape lately, posting a 32% decline on a monthly scale and plunging by 12% in the past 24 hours alone.

BONE Price
BONE Price, Source: CoinGecko

The main reason triggering the latest downfall is OKX’s decision to withdraw its support from the meme coin. The well-known cryptocurrency exchange announced that it will delist several digital assets on July 7, with BONE included in the list. 

OKX has already suspended deposits involving the token, while withdrawals will be terminated by the end of September. 

“We will continue to monitor all listed trading pairs and implement the delisting/hiding mechanism as necessary,” the company concluded.

OKX boasts over 50 million users globally and is among the behemoths in its field. When it withdraws support for a token, it often leads to negative price impacts driven by reduced liquidity, limited access, and potential reputational concerns.

BONE saw the light of day in the summer of 2021 alongside the debut of ShibaSwap – Shiba Inu’s decentralized exchange. It enables holders to vote on development proposals and influence protocol decisions, serves as a reward for liquidity providers, and functions as a gas token for Shibarium. During its early days, its price skyrocketed above $15, while currently, it trades at a mere $0.18. 

The Community’s Reaction

One person who gave their two cents on the delisting effort is the X user LUCIE, who serves as Shibarium’s marketing strategist. The team member thinks there’s much panic over two (unnamed) “manipulative” exchanges that have withdrawn their support from the token. 

LUCIE said they don’t want to be involved in the drama, putting their trust in DeFi and highlighting its advantages over centralized platforms:

“I trust DeFi. Use good exchanges only to exchange. We’re here to build and embrace DeFi – and simplify it so even beginners can onboard without needing 2FA, KYC, and a blood sample just to get started.”

Shibarium’s executive also noted that SHIB and other cryptocurrencies, like XRP, have faced similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) but have survived the backlash over the years. At the same time, LUCIE reminded about the demise of former giants like FTX and WazirX, hinting that centralized exchanges are not immune to another collapse of that type.

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