By Robert Harvey and Enes Tunagur

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices were steady on Friday, heading for a weekly loss, as investors mulled waning Chinese demand and a possible slowing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut path.

futures dropped 30 cents, or 0.41%, to $72.26 a barrel by 1238 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 24 cents, or 0.35%, at $68.46.

For the week, Brent is set to fall 2% while WTI is set to decline nearly 3%.

China’s oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier because of plant closures and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.

The country’s factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating, adding to investors’ concerns over the economic health of the world’s largest crude importer.

“China served a timely reminder about the true state of its oil sector. The country’s refinery throughput declined for the seventh successive month in October,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

Speaking on Thursday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank did not need to rush to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth, aiding fuel demand.

Oil prices also fell this week as major forecasters indicated slowing global demand growth.

“Global oil demand is getting weaker,” said International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol on Friday at the COP29 summit.

“We have been seeing this for some time and this is mainly driven by the slowing Chinese economic growth and the increasing penetration of electric cars around the world.”

The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by more than 1 million bpd in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.

OPEC meanwhile cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions.

Providing a floor to the price declines, U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week to the lowest since November 2022, the Energy Information Administration said, outweighing a 2.1 million barrel stockbuild.

“Without the weekly statistics on US oil inventories the major oil contracts would have probably settled lower (on Thursday). Gasoline supported the whole complex,” PVM’s Varga added.

Investing.com– Oil prices slipped lower Friday, heading for a weekly loss, on worries about waning Chinese demand and after data showed a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories. 

At 08:20 ET (13:20 GMT), fell 0.3% to $72.33 a barrel and fell 0.3% to $68.53 a barrel.

Oil heads for weekly decline

Both contracts are set to post weekly falls of over 2%, with losses initially sparked by unimpressive stimulus measures from China, especially as Beijing declined to dole out more targeted fiscal measures to support private spending and the property market. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its 2024 demand outlook for a fourth consecutive month, citing concerns over China. 

Sentiment towards China was also strained by the prospect of a renewed trade war with the U.S., as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on the country. 

US inventories grow in past week, but product stockpiles fall 

US government data, released on Thursday, showed that U.S. grew nearly 2.1 million barrels (mb) in the week to Nov. 8, more than expectations for a 0.4 mb build and a second straight week of outsized build.

The reading pushed up concerns over a U.S. supply glut, especially as production remained close to record highs of over 13 million barrels per day. Production is also expected to increase in a Trump presidency. 

But outsized draws in and inventories showed that demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer still remained robust, although this trend is also expected to shift with the upcoming winter season.

IEA raises 2024 demand outlook, warns of 2025 supply glut 

The on Thursday slightly raised its 2024 demand growth forecast to 920,00 bpd, seeing stronger gasoil demand in some parts of the world.

The agency left its 2025 demand outlook unchanged, but warned that robust production will see oil supplies exceed demand in 2025, even if the OPEC left its ongoing supply cuts in place. 

The IEA’s forecast comes after the OPEC cut its annual demand outlook earlier this week.

UBS cuts 2025 forecast, but sees potential upside 

UBS cut its Brent crude price target to $80/bbl in 2025, down from $87/bbl at the end of March and June and $85/bbl at the end of September.

However, the bank’s analysts continue to believe that oil market participants are pricing in a too pessimistic outlook for 2025.

“Despite the re-election of Donald Trump and his pro-drilling pledge, we believe that it is not the person sitting in the White House that determines the US crude production path, but the prevailing spot price. With the US crude price starting to trade into the production curve, US crude production could be flat or even negative next year if current prices prevail,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated Nov. 14.

“Moreover, energy executives have indicated an ongoing focus on capital discipline.”

Tariffs remain a risk for oil demand growth in 2025, but further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures would likely offset the associated economic growth drags.

“We see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year. With low positioning of financial investors due to their view of a strongly oversupplied market, we believe oil prices have room to recover from current levels,” UBS added.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday (NASDAQ:), after China’s stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking fuel demand growth in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer and as the U.S. dollar edged higher.

futures fell $1.10, or 1.5% to $72.77 a barrel by 1101 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.17 a barrel, down $1.21, or 1.7%.

Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.

The dollar firmed 0.40%, as traders prepared for a key reading of U.S. consumer inflation this week, as well as a parade of Federal Reserve speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

A stronger dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.

In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy.

“Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory…, Chinese economic momentum remains negative,” said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, market analyst at brokerage XM.

The latest support measures will not revive China’s oil demand growth or imports, said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM.

“After last week’s U.S. presidential election attention is slowly drifting back to the underlying fundamentals,” Varga said.

Oil prices also eased after concerns about potential supply disruptions from storm Rafael in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico subsided.

More than a quarter of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 16% of output remained offline on Sunday, according to the offshore energy regulator.

Looking ahead, there were also concerns that U.S. oil and gas output could rise under the new Trump administration although analysts say 2025’s production forecast is unlikely to change.

“We think producers may think twice about turbo-charging U.S. supply in an era when OPEC+ has already staked out plans to gradually raise production targets over the course of 2025,” Tim Evans of Evans Energy said in a note.

Trump’s election promise of hiking import tariffs to boost the U.S. economy has clouded the global economic outlook although expectations that he could tighten sanctions on OPEC producers Iran and Venezuela and cut oil supply to global markets partly caused oil prices to gain more than 1% last week.