Commodities
Oil hedging activity hits record in October as traders eye market risks
By Georgina McCartney
HOUSTON (Reuters) – Investors ramped up oil futures and options trading in October to record levels in a bid to hedge growing uncertainty as war rages on in the Middle East and a bearish 2025 supply and demand outlook looms, triggering big swings in crude prices.
Hedging can help producers reduce risk and protect their production from sharp moves in the market by locking in a price for the oil. It can also give traders opportunities to profit in times of volatility.
Some 68.44 million barrels of oil in futures and options were traded in October, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:), surpassing the monthly record hit in March 2020 when Brent futures plummeted roughly $30 per barrel as the COVID-19 pandemic crushed global oil demand.
CME Group (NASDAQ:), meanwhile, reported a single day volume record for weekly crude oil options on Oct. 18, with 58,132 contracts traded.
Aegis Hedging, which has a client base with a production profile of about 25-30% of total U.S. barrels of oil equivalent, saw the highest number of trades in October in the company’s history, jumping by around 15% above the previous monthly record.
“Bullish surprises like possible attacks on oil infrastructure are the sorts of events to spur activity among clients and cause jitters in the market,” said Jay Stevens, director of market analytics and fundamentals at Aegis Hedging.
Investors spent much of October waiting on Israel’s response to an Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1, concerned a retaliation could involve strikes on the country’s oil infrastructure. Israel’s strikes some weeks later bypassed Iranian oil facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.
This shrank oil’s geopolitical risk premium, analysts said, with futures tumbling by around $4 a barrel the following trading day.
Brent traded within a wide range in October, with lows and highs swinging between $70 and $81 per barrel. Last quarter, Brent crude futures slid 17%, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 16%, according to data from LSEG.
“When you see futures prices get very volatile because of geopolitical and a range of other uncertainties, the market often looks to options as a way to manage risk in a more efficient way,” said Jeff Barbuto, global head of oil markets at ICE.
Investors traded more than 8.38 million barrels in Brent options in October on the ICE, surpassing the April 2024 record of 6.02 million barrels.
SLUGGISH DEMAND BALANCE
While geopolitical conflicts pose some upward price risk, traders are also facing a weak fundamentals outlook for 2025.
West Texas Intermediate could average $65 a barrel next year, with a downside of under $50 a barrel if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) increase production next year, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co analyst Matt Portillo said in a note last month.
“The market is addressing the supply and generally sluggish demand balance,” said Peter Keavey, global head of energy at CME Group. “(Investors are) really turning to the options markets to hedge,” he said, citing the sharp 38% year-on-year jump in average daily volumes of monthly options traded on the CME last month.
U.S. shale producer Coterra Energy (NYSE:), which has not hedged a significant portion of its production through the end of this year and next, said it added new derivative contracts in October in its third quarter earnings report.
The company added an additional 305,000 barrels of WTI oil hedges for the fourth quarter of 2024, on top of the 3.68 million barrels it already held. It added another 4.205 million barrels of WTI oil hedges for the remainder of 2025.
Uncertainty around when OPEC+ would unwind its most recent layer of output curbs, a cut of 2.2 million bpd, further stoked producers’ concerns last month and helped buoy hedging activity.
“The outlook has turned sourer for 2025, with projected oversupply,” Aegis’ Stevens said.
OPEC+ ultimately agreed to delay its planned December oil output increase by one month, the group said on Sunday, as weak demand notably from China and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the oil market.
Commodities
Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.
inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.
The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.
Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut.
Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.
Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals
The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
The rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.
Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors
Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.
Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories
Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.
At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.
Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.
Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China.
China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices.
China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.
To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.
US crude inventories shrink- API
US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions
Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.
rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.
Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.
US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high
The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook
Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.
Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.
Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.
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