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Cryptocurrency

US Inflation Rises Again, Could Hawkish Fed Pivot Curb Crypto Bull Market?

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Economic data released in the United States on Wednesday has raised red flags as Core PCE inflation has increased to 2.8% for October.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report reflects the average amount of money consumers spend monthly and is used by central bank policymakers as their primary inflation gauge.

“The Fed’s worst nightmare is officially here,” exclaimed the Kobeissi Letter, which added that this week’s data confirms that all three inflation metrics are back on the rise.

Compounding Inflation

These reports have been indicating a rising cost of living in the US since July, and now all three inflation gauges are increasing as well, it revealed.

“For the first time since February 2022, Core CPI, PCE, and PPI inflation are now rising at the SAME time.”

It added that the clear “elephant in the room” is that inflation has leveled off above the Fed’s 2% target.

Kobeissi added that the Core CPI has been above 3% for 42 consecutive months, the longest streak since the early 1990s, “which effectively means we have compounding inflation.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could also increase consumer prices and push inflation back up.

This week, Goldman Sachs economists predicted that tariffs would directly impact Personal Consumption Expenditures.

“Using our rule of thumb that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE by 0.1%, we estimate that the proposed tariff increases would boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented,” they wrote.

Impact on Crypto

Increasing inflation means the Federal Reserve could pivot back to a hawkish stance in halting interest rate reductions or even increasing rates again.

After starting rate cuts with a 50 basis point cut for the first time in 2008, the Fed is now worried with chair Jerome Powell, who recently said the central banks were “not in a hurry” to cut rates.

High interest rates are usually bad news for risk-on assets such as crypto since lower-risk cash-related investments become more attractive. Additionally, higher rates mean lower liquidity and excess money for investing as there is less borrowing.

Nevertheless, crypto markets continued to march higher this week, with total capitalization hitting $3.5 trillion again, primarily driven by Ethereum and altcoins.

The bullish momentum from a new pro-crypto administration and major institutional acceptance and investment could be enough to overcome a hawkish pivot by the US central bank.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitwise Proposes New ETF Based on its 10 Crypto Index Fund

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Bitwise Asset Management has submitted a proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on its existing 10 Crypto Index Fund.

The ETF would include ten leading cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Polkadot (DOT), and Uniswap (UNI).

Details of The Filing

The fund is designed to reflect the prices of the ten assets in weighted proportions, providing investors with indirect exposure to the cryptocurrencies.

Each asset in the crypto index ETF is allocated a specific share, with Bitcoin making up 75.1% of the index, Ethereum 16.5%, and Solana 4.3%. XRP accounts for 1.5%, followed by Cardano at 0.7%, Avalanche at 0.60%, and Chainlink and Bitcoin Cash at 0.4% each. Uniswap and Polkadot round out the index with allocations of 0.3% each.

According to a November 27 filing, the Trust’s assets will be limited to portfolio assets and cash, with no plans to hold digital assets beyond those included in the portfolio. It also explicitly disclaimed ownership of any additional cryptocurrencies.

The fund’s net asset value (NAV) will be calculated using pricing data from CF Benchmarks, which aggregates information from multiple cryptocurrency trading platforms.

Coinbase Custody will oversee the crypto holdings, while the Bank of New York Mellon will act as custodian for cash reserves, administrator, and transfer agent. Meanwhile, the SEC acknowledged the application but did not indicate the decision timeline.

Bitwise’s Market Moves

Bitwise’s registration comes as the firm builds momentum in the crypto market. Earlier in November, the company crossed the $10 billion mark in assets under management (AUM), gaining an additional $1 billion in just 10 days.

The asset manager has also expanded its ETF lineup. On November 26, it revealed that NYSE Arca had filed to list a combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP weighted by market capitalization.

The following day, Bitwise rebranded its European XRP ETF as the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP. Ripple has also pledged to invest in the product.

Further, the company joined the Solana ETF train earlier this month. On November 20, it registered a statutory trust in Delaware for a proposed spot Solana ETF, adding to its earlier filing for an XRP exchange-traded fund in the state.

The recent election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and the resignation notice of SEC Chair Gary Gensler have fueled optimism in the cryptocurrency sector. Many firms are capitalizing on this sentiment to push forward their crypto ETF proposals, with market expert Nate Geraci previously anticipating a wave of ETF filings following Trump’s triumph.

However, challenges persist. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart recently warned that significant regulatory obstacles for altcoin ETFs could delay approval timelines.

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Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Hits 6-Month High Near $3,700 as ETFs Drive Momentum 

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Ethereum is finally moving independently from its big brother, Bitcoin, which has corrected over the past week.

As a result, ETH prices hit $3,682 during early trading in Asia on Thursday, its highest level since June 10. This culminated in an 18% gain over the past week. Conversely, Bitcoin has declined by 2% over the past seven days.

Ethereum had retreated to $3,600 at the time of writing, but it appears to have awakened after months of slumber.

ETH Retuns to Summer Highs

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital commented that Bitcoin’s range between $91,000 and $100,000 “may very well be a recipe for Ethereum to take the lead and enable money flow into smaller Altcoins.”

In a separate post, he said that ETH would need a weekly close above $3,650 for it to break out from previous highs in June.

He added that this would enable ETH to target resistance at $4,000 before adding, “Historically, such weekly closes inside the red resistance have preceded strong upsides,” which could see the asset reach $4,500.

Engineer and analyst ‘Wolf’ echoed the sentiment to his 107,000 X followers on Nov. 28. “No matter how you look at the$ETH chart, it’s incredibly bullish,” he said before adding:

“One way to view it is as a 3-year cup and handle, with major resistance at $4k. Once that’s cleared, a measured move places it north of $15k.”

Meanwhile, investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows said ETH was forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern and showing strength despite BTC’s decline before predicting:

“I personally think ETH will outperform BTC over the next 4-6 months, and I’m betting heavily on it. $10,000+ ETH is programmed this cycle.”

The Ethereum bull-posting follows months of FUD from Bitcoin maxis and Solana disciples asserting that the network and asset were dead.

Ethereum ETFs Driving Momentum

Institutional investors appear to be leading the charge with spot Ether ETFs in the United States, which have seen large inflows recently.

According to preliminary data from Farside Investors, the nine funds saw an aggregate inflow of $145.7 million on Nov. 27, their highest for a fortnight.

BlackRock’s ETHA fund led the pack with $55.6 million inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FETH with $38 million and the Grayscale mini Ethereum Trust (ETH) with $37.3 million.

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Cryptocurrency

US Inflation Rises Again, Could Hawkish Fed Pivot Curb Crypto Bull Market?

letizo News

Published

on

Economic data released in the United States on Wednesday has raised red flags as Core PCE inflation has increased to 2.8% for October.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report reflects the average amount of money consumers spend monthly and is used by central bank policymakers as their primary inflation gauge.

“The Fed’s worst nightmare is officially here,” exclaimed the Kobeissi Letter, which added that this week’s data confirms that all three inflation metrics are back on the rise.

Compounding Inflation

These reports have been indicating a rising cost of living in the US since July, and now all three inflation gauges are increasing as well, it revealed.

“For the first time since February 2022, Core CPI, PCE, and PPI inflation are now rising at the SAME time.”

It added that the clear “elephant in the room” is that inflation has leveled off above the Fed’s 2% target.

Kobeissi added that the Core CPI has been above 3% for 42 consecutive months, the longest streak since the early 1990s, “which effectively means we have compounding inflation.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could also increase consumer prices and push inflation back up.

This week, Goldman Sachs economists predicted that tariffs would directly impact Personal Consumption Expenditures.

“Using our rule of thumb that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE by 0.1%, we estimate that the proposed tariff increases would boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented,” they wrote.

Impact on Crypto

Increasing inflation means the Federal Reserve could pivot back to a hawkish stance in halting interest rate reductions or even increasing rates again.

After starting rate cuts with a 50 basis point cut for the first time in 2008, the Fed is now worried with chair Jerome Powell, who recently said the central banks were “not in a hurry” to cut rates.

High interest rates are usually bad news for risk-on assets such as crypto since lower-risk cash-related investments become more attractive. Additionally, higher rates mean lower liquidity and excess money for investing as there is less borrowing.

Nevertheless, crypto markets continued to march higher this week, with total capitalization hitting $3.5 trillion again, primarily driven by Ethereum and altcoins.

The bullish momentum from a new pro-crypto administration and major institutional acceptance and investment could be enough to overcome a hawkish pivot by the US central bank.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).

LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!

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