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Forex

Dollar hovers near 3-week high before Fed; bitcoin tops $106,000

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By Kevin Buckland and Greta Rosen Fondahn

TOKYO/GDANSK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar hovered close to a three-week high versus other major currencies on Monday, ahead of a week of central bank meetings in which markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates but signal a measured pace of easing for 2025.

soared above $106,000 for the first time, buoyed by signs President-elect Donald Trump will go ahead with a potential strategic bitcoin reserve.

The euro was down 0.1% on the day at $1.0494, after dipping to $1.0453 at the end of last week, its weakest since Nov. 26, hampered by ratings agency Moody’s (NYSE:) unexpectedly downgrading France on Friday.

The decline in euro zone business activity eased this month, a survey showed, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday the ECB will cut interest rates further if inflation continues to ease towards its 2% target.

The – which tracks the currency against six others – was up 0.1% at 106.98 at 1220 GMT, after rising to 107.18 on Friday for the first time since Nov. 26.

Traders are confident of a quarter-point Fed rate reduction on Wednesday but now expect officials to forgo a cut in January, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

With inflation running above the central bank’s 2% annual target, Fed policymakers have stated that recent upticks are part of the bumpy path to lower price pressures and not a reversal of the disinflationary trend.

But analysts say they are also likely to be wary of renewed inflation with Trump set to take office in January.

“The U.S. economy has been resilient in the face of high interest rates, which means the potential for inflation to rise if the economy overheats is a problem the Fed will need to address,” said James Kniveton, a senior FX dealer at Convera.

“There is concern that the incoming administration’s policies may be inflationary, but as the Bank of Canada Governor commented earlier this month, decisions cannot be based on potential U.S. policy, and (Fed Chair) Jerome Powell may follow suit.”

Investors indeed expect the outlook from the Fed this week will not incorporate potential future policy changes.

“Powell will … likely emphasise that it is still too early for officials to build any major policy changes from the new Trump administration into their outlook,” said Deutsche Bank (ETR:) analysts in a note.

The yen struggled to recover following its largest weekly slide since September after Reuters and other news outlets reported the Bank of Japan was leaning towards skipping a rate hike on Thursday.

The U.S. currency was up 0.1% against the yen, touching 153.92 for the first time since Nov. 26.

Sterling was up 0.33% to $1.2650, pulling up from $1.2607 on Friday, its lowest point since Nov. 27, when data showed a surprise economic contraction in the British economy.

A survey of business activity pointed to a rise in prices in Britain on Monday.

The Bank of England is due to announce a policy decision just hours after the BOJ.

BITCOIN HITS ALL-TIME HIGH

Bitcoin surged as much as 3.6% from Sunday’s close to reach an all-time high of $106,533, but had fallen back to $103,916 in midday European trading.

Trump suggested in an interview with CNBC late last week that he planned to go ahead with a proposal to build a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve, similar to its strategic oil reserve.

On the campaign trail, Trump had promised to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet”.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The CNBC interview “has been a bit of a slow burner, but it’s now resulted in that push above $105,000” for bitcoin, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

“We’re in blue sky territory here, and the next figure the market will be looking for is $110,000.”

Forex

Asia FX fragile with dollar upbeat ahead of PCE data; yen hits 5-mth low

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday with the Japanese yen recovering marginally from a five-month low as strong inflation data only partially offset a dovish outlook for the Bank of Japan.

Regional currencies were pressured by a broad push into the dollar, which hit an over one-year high after the Federal Reserve flagged a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. The greenback remained well-bid even as markets positioned for a potential U.S. government shutdown. 

The and rose marginally in Asian trade, and were at their strongest levels since November 2023. Focus is now on key data due later on Friday for more cues on interest rates. 

The Chinese yuan weakened to a more-than one-year low after Beijing left a key lending rate unchanged.

Yen rises from 5-mth low on strong CPI; BOJ outlook dovish 

The Japanese yen was among the better performers on Friday, with the pair falling 0.2% as inflation data for November read slightly stronger than expected.

But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, with USDJPY having surged to 157.93 yen- its highest level since late-July. 

While strong CPI data did further the case for an eventual rate hike by the Bank of Japan, comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025. 

The central bank and signaled that inflation will continue to rise. But Ueda’s comments on watching springtime labor wage negotiations suggested that a hike may not come until at least March. 

Recent weakness in the yen also spurred renewed speculation over government intervention, after ministers made a verbal warning on yen weakness. 

Chinese yuan at 1-yr low; PBOC leaves loan prime rate unchanged 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.2%, hitting its highest level since November 2023.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.

Looser monetary policy has also provided limited support to the Chinese economy over the past year, with Beijing expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to boost growth. 

Broader Asian currencies mostly weakened on Friday, and were nursing steep declines this week as traders remained biased towards the dollar. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and remained at a two-year low, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% and was close to its highest point in nearly 15 years. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair was flat, while the Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting a record high above 85 rupees earlier this week. 

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Forex

Dollar strengthens as market digests Fed’s hawkish cut

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By Chibuike Oguh, Harry Robertson and Rae Wee

NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar hovered near its two-year high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and signaled a much slower monetary policy easing trajectory in 2025, while the yen weakened against the greenback after the Bank of Japan held rates steady.

The dollar edged higher from losses early in the session after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. third quarter GDP showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate.

The number validated the Federal Reserve’s cautious new take-it-slow approach to easing, as did a bigger-than-expected fall in the number of applications for unemployment insurance to 220,000 last week.

Currencies around the world tumbled on Wednesday after the Fed decision sent yields higher and boosted the dollar, although many rebounded on Thursday in choppy trading conditions with thin volumes ahead of the holiday period.

The , which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, reached as high as 108.480 on the session, topping the 108.180 it reached in the prior session, which is its highest level since November 2022. It was last up 0.08% to 108.360.

The week has been chock-a-block with the last central bank policy meetings of 2024. The BOJ kept interest rates steady as expected, but the yen fell sharply as Governor Kazuo Ueda gave little away in a post-meeting press conference.

The dollar rose 1.63% against the yen to 157.55, trading at its highest levels since July.

“The main focus has been on the central bank decisions, which were very dollar supportive overall. The Fed had a hawkish cut and the Bank of Japan delivered a dovish hold, and those were probably the main two drivers,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.

Investors had been looking out for hints of imminent BOJ tightening, particularly after the Fed struck a hawkish tone at its meeting a day earlier.

But the governor reiterated that policymakers would need more time to assess incoming economic data and the implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

The fallout from the Fed continued to ripple across financial markets after traders heavily dialed back on easing expectations next year.

The euro, which tumbled 1.34% on Wednesday, managed to claw back some losses and was last 0.16% higher at $1.036650.

“Since the election interest rate expectations in the U.S. have gone up, but outside the U.S. they’ve gone down whether you look at ECB or you know most other central banks,” said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard (NYSE:) in New York.

“And that leads to dollar strengthening as those interest rate differentials widen in favor of the U.S. So I think you should expect more dollar strengthening because I don’t believe the interest rate markets or the currency markets have fully priced in the implications of tariffs.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75% as expected on Thursday. Sterling dipped, weakening 0.58% to $1.25.

The Canadian dollar sank to its lowest in more than four years at 1.44 per U.S. dollar. The South Korean won tumbled to its weakest level in 15 years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, sending global stocks plunging and bond yields spiking. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 7.2 basis points to 4.57%.

The Swedish and Norwegian crowns both rebounded against the dollar on Thursday, after Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates but Norway’s Norges Bank held them steady.

The Swedish crown strengthened 1% versus the dollar to 11.026, while the Norwegian krone pared earlier gains and was down 0.58% to 11.45.

The dropped to a two-year low before also ticking up. Data on Thursday showed that New Zealand’s economy sank into a recession in the third quarter. The currency was last up 0.16% versus the greenback to $0.5632.

Australia’s dollar bottomed at $0.6199, a two-year low, but was last up around 0.37%.

Currency bid prices at 19 December​ 09:21 p.m. GMT              

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Dollar index 108.4 108.26 0.13% 6.93% 108.48 107.81

Euro/Dollar 1.0362 1.0351 0.1% -6.12% $1.0422 $1.0348

Dollar/Yen 157.34 154.75 1.67% 11.55% 157.77 154.5

Euro/Yen 163.04​ 160.26 1.73% 4.76% 163.8 159.87

Dollar/Swiss 0.8984 0.901 -0.32% 6.72% 0.9022 0.895

Sterling/Dollar 1.2496 1.2574 -0.6% -1.79% $1.2665 $1.2497​

Dollar/Canadian 1.4389 1.4449 -0.4% 8.55% 1.4466 1.4346

Aussie/Dollar 0.6238 0.6218 0.33% -8.49% $0.6265 $0.6199

Euro/Swiss 0.9308 0.9328 -0.21% 0.24% 0.9355 0.9307

Euro/Sterling 0.8289 0.823 0.72% -4.36% 0.8293 0.8223

NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.563 0.5624 0.18% -10.84% $0.5662 0.5608

Dollar/Norway 11.448​ 11.3836 0.56% 12.95% 11.4594 11.2839

Euro/Norway 11.8616 11.7879 0.63% 5.68% 11.877 11.754

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

Dollar/Sweden 11.0294 11.1267 -0.87% 9.56% 11.1366 10.9966

Euro/Sweden 11.4289 11.5226 -0.81% 2.73% 11.5355 11.4276

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Forex

Dollar set for weekly gains ahead of key inflation release

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Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Friday, pausing for breath after strong gains this week as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 107.960, after earlier this week climbing to a two-year high.

Dollar on course for weekly gains

The has slipped slightly Friday, but is still on course of weekly gains of around 1%, bolstered by a relatively hawkish US rate outlook after the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year earlier this week.

The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, a likely two cuts of 25 basis points, instead of the four reductions indicated in the previous forecasts in September. 

The November is expected to rise 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.8% the prior month, while the monthly figure is seen climbing 0.2%, a slip from 0.3% in October. 

A stronger-than-expected rise in the core PCE index could have an outsized impact on markets, as the hawkish nature of the Fed’s comments has shifted the likelihood towards fewer or potentially no further reductions next year.

“Market pricing moved hawkishly and towards our view of just one further 25 bps cut outlined in our team’s 2025 outlook,” analysts from Macquarie said in a note.

Sterling near one-month low after weak retail sales

In Europe, traded largely flat at 1.2500, after falling on Thursday to a one-month low after Bank of England policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.

Data released earlier Friday showed that British rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, below the expected jump of 0.5%.

rose 0.2% higher to 1.0385, just off a one-month low, and still on track for a weekly drop of over 1% on the back of the dollar’s strength.

rose unexpectedly in November, increasing by 0.1% on the year, instead of the 0.3% decline predicted, while the business climate index in Germany’s retail sector fell slightly, the Ifo Institute said on Friday.

This year was very challenging for the retail sector and the overall economic environment is likely to remain difficult in 2025, “even though many retailers are hoping for an improvement in consumer sentiment,” said Ifo expert Patrick Hoeppner.

The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.

Yen helped by CPI data

In Asia, fell 0.4% to 156.74, as for November read slightly stronger than expected, strengthening the case for an eventual rate hike by the .

But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025. 

edged 0.1% higher to 7.3050, hitting its highest level since November 2023.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.

 

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