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Ripple v. SEC Yearly Recap: Was 2024 the Most Important Year?

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TL;DR

  • The Ripple v. SEC case culminated in August when Judge Torres ordered the company to pay a $125 million fine for breaching certain securities laws. The penalty represented a substantial reduction of what the regulator initially asked for.
  • Donald Trump’s election victory and Gary Gensler’s announced resignation fueled optimism among XRP supporters, expecting pro-crypto leadership to influence the case’s resolution favorably.

The First Half of the Year

2024 has been quite eventful for the legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the first months of the year, both entities filed various motions in preparation for the trial’s start.

For instance, the SEC requested Ripple to hand over essential documents such as the company’s financial statements for 2022 and 2023 and its post-complaint XRP sales contracts. The firm opposed the demand, maintaining that those records were untimely and unrelated to the case.

This caused the agency to re-submit the motion, claiming that the documents could offer essential insights into Ripple’s financial history and help determine if the company breached specific securities regulations. The firm reacted with a motion to file a sur-reply letter, seeking “to correct a significant factual mischaracterization made by the SEC.”

Eventually, Judge Sarah Netburn ruled in favor of the Commission, ordering Ripple to disclose its financial records for the years 2022-2023.

The two entities continued to submit documents and data until the beginning of the trial stage. As CryptoPotato reported, the legal proceedings between Ripple and the SEC reached that pivotal phase on April 23.

While many industry participants raised their hopes that this could be a sign of a soon-approaching settlement, the complexity of the court process and possible appeals from both sides mean that the case could be prolonged for a few more years. In May, the popular American attorney Jeremy Hogan claimed that the lawsuit had entered a stage with fewer developments, and both entities had to wait for the judge’s decision.

Ripple and the SEC continued to throw punches at each other, clashing over a key witness’ testimony and arguing about the potential size of the company’s fine for violating certain laws.

The watchdog sought a $2 billion penalty on the company, alleging it of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling its XRP token. Ripple disagreed, insisting that the amount should not exceed $10 million. It compared its case to another legal battle between the agency and Terraform Labs, saying allegations of fraud are only present in the second lawsuit.

The Court’s Decision 

In August, Judge Analisa Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty for violating federal securities laws through its institutional sales of XRP. It is worth mentioning that in the summer of 2023, the same magistrate found that the company’s programmatic sales of XRP to retail clients through centralized exchanges did not breach the rules.

Many industry participants viewed the August ruling as a huge victory for Ripple, considering that the fine represents just a fraction of what the SEC initially asked for. The company’s executives also seemed pleased. CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the firm respects the court’s decision, while CLO Stuart Alderoty stated the organization will pay the penalty in cash off its balance sheet.

Nonetheless, the SEC officially appealed in October, triggering a fresh doze of uncertainty. The action means that the lawsuit entered a new phase comprised of filings and a briefing process.

Donald Trump Comes to the Stage

Many crypto proponents cheered Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections (held on November 5). Those in favor of Ripple and its native token were also among the pack due to the Republican’s promise to fire the SEC’s Chairman Gary Gensler on day 1 after taking office. 

Gensler has been in charge for over three years, during which time the agency has filed numerous lawsuits against crypto businesses. 

While some doubted that Trump could fire him (since the SEC operates as an independent entity), the Chairman said he would resign in January next year. Moreover, the newly elected president of the States picked the pro-crypto Paul Atkins to succeed him. 

The XRP Army expects the Commission’s upcoming leadership to take a less hostile stance toward the cryptocurrency industry and push the case against Ripple to a favorable resolution soon. 

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Analysts Post Thrilling Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025: Where’s the Top?

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The little orange cryptocurrency was one of several digital assets in this segment that walloped 2024 gains from investing in US stocks like those in the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Composite.

Others, like Ripple’s XRP tokens for international settlements between large institutions, performed even better than Bitcoin. XRP was up 247% by Christmas Day in December. It notched 271% for the entire year on Wednesday.

But here’s how some leading crypto market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to carry through some point over the 2025 calendar year.

For a basis of reference, Bitcoin traded at an average crypto exchange rate of $94,700 Wednesday evening US Eastern Time, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin Price Predictions: $80,000 – $160,000

Peter Brandt: $78,000

Brandt made a prediction on Sunday, Dec. 29, targeting a big drop in Bitcoin’s price to the $78,000 level, based on a 45-day head and shoulders top pattern.

If he’s right, BTC will have to take one step back before it advances toward the more bullish price targets for 2025. But Brandt also cautioned in the comment thread on his post, “Charts do NOT predict anything. Charts merely suggest possibilities.”

The famous stock chart technical analyst is bullish for XRP in 2025, but his outlook for Bitcoin’s price is bearish.

CoinShares: $80,000

European crypto hedge fund CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, recently told CNBC that $150,000 BTC is possible in 2025. But he said a bearish correction to $80,000 is also on the cards.

“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill warned.

Bullish 2025 BTC Targets: $160,000 – $250,000

Standard Chartered: $200,000

British multinational bank Standard Chartered’s research head Geoff Kendrick says his office is targeting $200,000 BTC in 2025. He added that the entry of the United States government into the Bitcoin race is likely to fuel that rally.

“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted.

“We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”

Nexo: $250,000

Swiss-based crypto fund manager Nexo’s chief product officer, Elitsa Taskova, told CNBC, “We see Bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year.”

She points to ongoing trends in adoption by institutional finance and social indicators for the bullish outlook in 2025.

“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Taskova said.

Bottom Line for Investors

Like stocks, cryptocurrency assets are held at risk. But for more than a decade, Bitcoin has delivered world-class returns during bull markets. That means it’s possible for a small allocation to BTC can substantially speed individual investment portfolios toward reaching personal finance goals.

Nevertheless, investors should do their own research before allocating funds into any asset, no matter its returns over the past year or two.

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From $2 to $11: Popular Analyst Maps Out Ripple’s (XRP) Next Big Move

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TL:DR;

  • XRP rebounded from its most recent price slip below $2, but the asset might not be out of the woods yet.
  • However, a popular crypto analyst suggested that a potential decline toward that level again could be beneficial for XRP’s long-term price movements.
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView
XRPUSD. Source: TradingView

Ripple’s cross-border token went on a massive run after the US elections, skyrocketing by triple digits at one point and peaking close to $3. All of these gains came in the span of a few weeks, but the asset lost momentum at the start of December.

It tumbled hard on several occasions in the following weeks, with the latest decline to under $2 transpiring last Monday – December 30. This came during the most recent market-wide correction.

However, the popular crypto asset reacted well to this decline and shot up by over 20% since then, currently sitting at around $2.45. Consequently, XRP has regained its spot as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap by surpassing Tether’s USDT.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, XRP still stands below a steep resistance level of $2.73, which has stopped its price ascent on a couple of occasions during this rally. If the asset fails to overcome it soon, it could slump back to $2.05.

However, Martinez actually believes that such a scenario could be a blessing in disguise for XRP, which could catapult it toward a fresh all-time high above $3.4 (CoinGecko data) and all the way up to $11.

It’s safe to say that $11 sounds quite extraordinary for XRP. Such a price tag would put the asset’s market cap at well over $600 billion, which would help it top Ethereum in that regard. Although this might sound plausible under a friendlier Trump administration, it’s still a long way away and falls under the category of exaggerated price predictions.

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2 Strong Indicators US Investors Are Flocking Back to Bitcoin

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The landscape around bitcoin after the last FOMC meeting for 2024 in the US turned upside down, with local investors pulling funds out of the ETFs and the Coinbase Premium Index declining to yearly lows.

However, on-chain data shows that US investors are back on the BTC front, with massive accumulations.

ETFs Demand Returns

During the aforementioned meeting at the highest levels in the US central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that there might be fewer or even no rate cuts in 2025 due to rising inflation. US investors reacted immediately and started pulling funds out of riskier assets like BTC and crypto.

Within the next four trading days, they withdrew more than $1.5 billion out of the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. December 26 was the only day well in the green, as December 27, 30, and January 2 saw more net outflows. Even BlackRock’s IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, was posting negative records.

However, this changed on Friday, January 3. The total net inflows for the day shot up to $908.1 million, according to FarSide data. IBIT was actually second with $253.1 million, trailing behind Fidelity’s FBTC with $357 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB also had a strong presence, attracting $222.6 million. This became the best day in terms of net inflows since November 21.

Coinbase Premium Index

The other metric that showcases US investors’ overall behavior toward bitcoin and crypto is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the BTC price difference between Coinbase and Binance. When it shoots up into positive territory, this means that US-based investors are accumulating heavily, and vice versa.

The metric recently plunged to a yearly low, as reported, which coincided with the growing ETF outflows after the FOMC meeting. Now, though, CryptoQuant data shows that it has returned to neutral territory almost immediately after posting that low. This shows that “sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
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