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Arthur Hayes: China Interest Rate ‘Bazooka’ Will Goose Bitcoin Prices

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At its fourth quarter meeting on Dec. 27, the People’s Bank of China committee (POBC) proposed a more dovish (low interest rate) policy going forward.

At the same time, the US Fed has different plans.

China Announces Interest Rate Cut

Financial analysts expect the bank to make adjustments to the target funds rate so that credit demand aligns better with monetary policy, according to Reuters. As a result, crypto analysts expect a big wave of monetary support for Bitcoin prices in the Middle Kingdom’s yuan printing press.

China’s central bank issued a statement on Friday announcing a cut to the banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at “a proper time.” The central bank says the PBOC is likely to further slash China’s interest rates from the current target of 1.5% sometime soon in 2025.

The PBOC last cut rates to 1.5% from 1.7% in September, the same month as the Federal Reserve pivoted to a rate-cutting regime. Moreover, China’s 10-year and 30-year treasury yields both hit record lows on Friday over expectations of fresh monetary easing.

Arthur Hayes Predicts ‘Glorious’ Bitcoin Rally

The interest rate cut at China’s central bank will help to counter a deflationary yuan that threatens to spiral into debt-crippling loan revaluation. But, it will also push up the prices of the basket of financial goods, especially stocks and cryptocurrencies.

South Africa cut its main overnight money market rate by 0.25% to 7.75% in November.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted the next rate cut in Beijing will combine with the Fed’s low rate regime and cause a “glorious” rally for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in 2025.

Hayes is an influential macro strategic analyst for the price levels of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Immediately after the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate cut in September, Bitcoin’s price rocketed above the $60,000 level. Since then, the little orange coin has reached record high levels of $100,000.

Seven months ago in May, Hayes wrote on his Medium blog that when China brings out the monetary “bazooka,” buying a Wall Street Bitcoin ETF will be a no-brainer for regulated investors in the US.

“If my theory becomes reality, it is trivial for any institutional investor to buy one of the US-listed Bitcoin ETFs,” Hayes wrote. “Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the face of global fiat debasement, and they know it.”

In addition to a rising Coinbase premium index, ETF flows for Bitcoin are two strong indicators that mainstream investors are flocking back to Bitcoin in January.

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Top Cardano (ADA) Price Predictions as of Late

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TL;DR

  • Analysts cite bullish chart patterns to envision potential price breakouts above $3 and even a new all-time high of over $4.
  • A rising outflow of ADA from exchanges to self-custody wallets suggests strong holding behavior, while Grayscale’s proposed spot ETF (now awaiting SEC approval) could open the floodgates to mainstream investment if approved.

Time for Another Pump?

Cardano’s ADA has been underperforming over the past two weeks, with its price dropping by 5% during that period to the current $0.77 (according to CoinGecko’s data). Despite the downtrend, many market observers remain optimistic in their predictions.

Hardy, an X user with more than 70,000 followers, thinks ADA looks solid at its ongoing level. Furthermore, they argued that the asset’s “epic bull run” has not yet started.

X Finance Bull described ADA as “one of the biggest sleeper gains in crypto right now. The X user believes the valuation is poised to surpass $3, adding that a new all-time high is closer than some might think. 

Smith also chipped in, spotting the formation of a “monstrous cup and handle” on ADA’s price chart. This is a bullish pattern that signals the potential for a major rally. Smith believes the valuation could explode above $4 once it exceeds the breakout target of $0.92. 

Those interested in exploring additional price forecasts for Cardano’s native token can refer to our previous dedicated article here.

The Bullish Indicators

According to CoinGlass’s data, there has been a significant shift of ADA tokens from centralized exchanges toward self-custody methods in the past several months. This is considered bullish since it reduces the immediate selling pressure.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

The potential launch of a spot ADA ETF can also positively impact the price. The leading digital asset manager, Grayscale, displayed its intentions to introduce such a product in the USA in February of this year. The decision is now in the hands of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Such an investment vehicle will give investors additional and simplified options to gain exposure to ADA. After all, buying a spot ETF is like purchasing regular stocks, all done via standard brokerage accounts. In the aftermath, Investors own shares, while the fund holds the actual cryptocurrency on their behalf.

According to Polymarket, the approval odds before the end of 2025 stand at 83%.

ADA ETF Approval Odds
ADA ETF Approval Odds, Source: Polymarket
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Ethereum’s Low Funding Rates Signal ‘Full-Fledged’ Rally Ahead: Analyst

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Ethereum’s ten-year milestone has been marked not just by reflection but by a steady rally that has investors bracing for what could be the cryptocurrency’s next big breakout.

With ETH trading at $3,800 at press time, still 24% below its all-time high, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst CoinCare says its subdued futures funding rates and deep-pocketed accumulation suggest the uptick is far from over.

The Funding Rate Divergence

According to CoinCare, Ethereum’s ongoing four-month rally is quite similar in magnitude to a previous surge that happened between the start of Q4 2023 and the end of Q1 2024. However, unlike that run, where funding rates became overheated, today’s futures funding levels remain near pre-rally lows.

“In the current rally, there has been no overheating in funding rates,” wrote CoinCare. “In fact, the current funding rates are closer to the levels seen before the October 2023 rally began.”

CoinCare believes this is a sign that “a cooldown after a short-term surge is essential,” following which ETH could “enter a full-fledged rally” driven by renewed speculative interest.

Beyond derivatives, fundamental and on-chain forces also support Ethereum’s potential breakout. For instance, heavyweight Ethereum investors recently acquired 220,000 ETH, worth an estimated $850 million, in just 48 hours. This boosted their holdings to 23.5% of the asset’s supply, a record high that should lessen market liquidity and amplify an upward push.

At the same time, spot ETH ETFs have attracted roughly $5 billion in just 17 days, adding steady demand from regulated investment vehicles. Meanwhile, exchange balances have plunged to a near-decade low of 19 million ETH, with more than 1 million coins withdrawn in the past month alone, potentially reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

Price Momentum

Looking at the market, ETH has gained 1.7% in the past 24 hours, 7.9% in the last week, and 57% across 30 days. It is currently trading within a tight $3,708 to $3,874 range, with $4,000 as the next key resistance level and $3,500 providing critical short-term support.

Analyst Ali Martinez believes going above $4,100 could trigger “the real breakout” for ETH, marking a major psychological shift and potentially opening the door for a run towards its 2021 all-time high.

Despite short-term warning signals, such as an overbought RSI and a potential pullback toward $3,300 highlighted in CryptoPotato’s latest analysis, the bigger on-chain picture remains decisively bullish. If CoinCare’s funding-rate thesis proves accurate and institutional demand continues to grow, ETH’s next chapter could be written not with caution but with new highs.

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FTX Stakes $79M in ETH, Whales Are Buying, BlackRock’s ETHA Keep Growing

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TL;DR

  • FTX staked $79M ETH after withdrawing $75M, signaling renewed activity from major crypto players.
  • BlackRock now holds 2.5% of all ETH, adding $375M more through its growing Ethereum ETF.
  • Eleven new whale wallets added 722K ETH since July, with most already staked for the long term.
  • Ethereum ETFs saw $5.41B in July inflows, beating combined gains from the last eleven months.

FTX Moves ETH From Bybit, Then Stakes It

On-chain data tracked by Lookonchain shows that FTX and Alameda Research staked 20,736 ETH, valued at around $79 million, within the past few hours. The move follows a previous withdrawal of 21,650 ETH from crypto exchange Bybit. That withdrawal, carried out between December 17, 2024, and January 9, 2025, totaled $75.3 million at an average price of $3,478 per ETH.

At the time of writing, ETH trades at $3,860. The price has increased 1% in the last 24 hours and 7% over the past seven days. These ETH transfers and staking actions add to a trend of growing market activity around the asset.

BlackRock and Other Firms Continue ETH Accumulation

BlackRock added $375 million in ETH to its holdings this week. The firm now controls about 2.5% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply, which translates to over $11.4 billion in ETH, based on current prices. 

In addition, the iShares Ethereum ETF, launched in 2024, has now acquired more than 3 million ETH, according to Nate Geraci’s recent post. Since July 12 alone, it has added another 1 million ETH.

The Ether Machine, a company focused on ETH accumulation, bought 15,000 ETH this week for $56.9 million. This brings its total ETH holdings to over 334,000. 

Meanwhile, it also confirmed that additional capital remains available for further ETH purchases. With this latest transaction, The Ether Machine now holds more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation.

SharpLink, a Nasdaq-listed company, made yet another purchase earlier today, adding 11,359 ETH, which brings its total to 449,276 (worth $1.73 billion). A significant portion of the newly acquired ETH has already been staked.

Whale Wallets Enter the Market With Billions in ETH

Eleven new wallets have acquired a total of 722,152 ETH, worth $2.77 billion, since July 9. Three of those wallets added 73,821 ETH, worth $283 million, in the past 24 hours. The data was tracked by Crypto Rover.

Most of these new wallets are staking their ETH. This reduces the circulating supply and signals long-hold strategies. These new holders are joining a broader trend of long-term ETH accumulation by large entities.

ETF Inflows Surge in July

As we recently reported, Ethereum ETFs brought in $5.41 billion in net inflows during July. That figure is higher than the $4.21 billion combined inflows from the 11 previous months. Since their launch in July 2024, ETH ETFs have received $9.62 billion.

Earlier in the year, flows were more uneven. The first quarter of 2025 saw low inflows and a brief outflow in March. By contrast, November and December 2024 saw stronger interest, with inflows of $1.05 billion and $2.08 billion, respectively.

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