Forex
Dollar falls as markets ponder proposed Trump tariffs, US data in focus
By Stefano Rebaudo
(Reuters) – The U.S. dollar was close to a one-week low on Tuesday as markets await U.S. economic data while assessing whether President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs will align with his rhetoric.
Investors have been pricing in a scenario where the implementation of widespread tariffs could boost U.S. inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates and thereby supporting the dollar’s strength.
Now, they are wondering whether officials are preparing to water down some of Trump’s campaign promises, while a lot of uncertainty remains about future moves in U.S. policy.
Trump on Monday denied a Wall Street Journal report that said his aides were exploring tariff plans that would only cover critical imports.
The market focus will shift to U.S. JOLTS job opening data and the ISM Services index for December later in the session.
The , which gauges the currency against the euro, sterling and four other rivals, eased 0.22% to 108.03, after dropping to as low as 107.74 overnight, its weakest since Dec. 30.
On Jan. 2, the index hit a high of 109.58 for the first time since November 2022, largely due to expectations that Trump’s promised fiscal stimulus, reduced regulation and higher tariffs would boost U.S. growth.
“With numerous large policy shifts on the horizon, markets should be prepared for a lot more volatility ahead,” said George Saravelos, head of global forex strategy at Deutsche Bank (ETR:).
On tariffs specifically, “there are likely to be multiple overlapping legislative and executive initiatives with rolling deadlines and announcements throughout the year,” he added.
The euro zone has been a particular target of Trump’s tariff threats, and the euro added 0.18% to $1.0409, after jumping to a one-week high of $1.0437 on Monday.
“While Trump’s rebuttal of the original (Wall Street Journal) article has curtailed the euro/dollar bounce, some doubt about the potential breadth of the tariffs could see an overbought dollar hand back a little more of its recent gains,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
“We see no need to change our euro/dollar forecast profile of a gentle grind towards 1.02 this year,” he added, recalling that the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates more quickly than the Fed.
Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro picked up to 2.4% last month from 2.2% in November, Eurostat said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, euro zone households increased their inflation expectations in November, an ECB poll showed.
Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at 2.1% in July, unchanged after data, from 1.9% before Christmas. The depo rate is currently at 3%.
“The continued stickiness of services inflation means that the ECB is likely to keep cutting interest rates only slowly even as the economic outlook remains poor,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics.
The dollar gained 0.04% to reach 157.69 yen, and earlier rose as high as 158.425 yen for the first time since July 17, drawing support from higher U.S. Treasury yields.
The yen may have also been sold as investors adjusted positions at the start of the new year, said Shinichiro Kadota, a currency strategist at Barclays (LON:), who forecasts the dollar to be at 158 yen at end-March.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.1% to 1.4315 versus the greenback as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday he would step down in the coming months.
Analysts said former central banker Mark Carney would be the most market-friendly candidate.
Still, they reckoned the domestic political shake-up would not be enough to support the Canadian dollar as the currency outlook remains tied to U.S. tariff policies.
The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars resumed their climbs, with the up 0.48% at $0.6276 and the up 0.63% at $0.5679.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 0.9% at $100,766, after trading at its highest levels since Dec. 19.
Forex
Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities
Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.
In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.
“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.
The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said.
Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.
Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.
“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.
Forex
Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data
Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.
Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar
The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.
This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level.
“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”
The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.
There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.
German economic weakness weighs on euro
In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.
fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.
The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.
Yuan sentiment remains weak
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.
Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.
gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.
The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency.
Forex
Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks
By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn
SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.
Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.
Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.
hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.
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