Forex
Dollar retreats from highs ahead of PPI; sterling under pressure
Investing.com – The US dollar fell Tuesday amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs policy, but remained near two-year highs ahead of the release of the first of the week’s key inflation data.
At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% lower to 109.325, after climbing to a 26-month high on Monday.
Dollar retreats from highs
The dollar slipped from its highs Tuesday following a Bloomberg report that suggested the Trump administration could take a gradual approach to tariffs.
The dollar had received a boost earlier this year after the President-elect vowed to impose steep tariffs on several countries, including a 60% duty on China, from “day one” of his term.
That said, the greenback remains elevated after a strong report on Friday reinforced support for the US central bank’s cautious stance toward further monetary policy easing this year.
The cut the number of rate cuts projected for 2025 to two at its December meeting, from four in September, with policy members fretting about inflation remaining above target.
The focus this week is now on the US report due on Wednesday, preceded by later this session.
“This week’s US inflation data could potentially reinforce the dollar’s strong momentum and cast further doubts on whether the Fed needs to cut at all,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“Tomorrow’s CPI should have the biggest market impact, but today’s PPI is still highly relevant, especially as many of the PPI components feed into the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE.”
Sterling under pressure
In Europe, traded 0.1% higher to 1.2214, after falling to 1.21 on Monday, its lowest since November 2023.
The pound has struggled this year as surging gilt yields, and thus higher borrowing costs, have prompted fears that the new Labour government may be forced to rein in spending or raise taxes to meet its fiscal rules, potentially weighing on future growth.
There is an abundance of UK economic data to study this week, starting on Wednesday with the latest .
“Gilts have remained under pressure, following the global bond underperformance. There is now a tangible risk that 10-year yields will be trading above 4.90% before tomorrow morning’s UK CPI print. Should that come in hotter than expected, selling pressure can intensify into the 5.0% handle and potentially beyond,” said ING.
rose 0.1% to 1.0255, just above hovered near the more than two-year low of 1.0177 seen on Monday.
The single currency has struggled at the start of the year after dropping more than 6% in 2024 as investors fret about the weak economic growth in the region and tariff threats.
There is sentiment data due later in the session from both and the to digest.
The widely expected to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in 2025, with most of the cuts coming in the first half of the year.
BOJ meeting looms large
In Asia, climbed 0.2% to 157.77, after BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said that the will debate whether to raise interest rates at a meeting next week.
Speculation over more rate hikes by the BOJ has grown in recent weeks, following strong wage growth and household spending data. Japanese inflation has also consistently remained above the BOJ’s 2% annual target in recent months.
traded largely unchanged at 7.3311, remaining close to its highest level since September 2023, amid increased focus on more stimulus measures from Beijing.
The People’s Bank of China is also set to decide on its benchmark this week.
Forex
Japanese yen subdued despite BOJ deputy governor’s rate hike hint
Investing.com– The Japanese yen exhibited minimal movement on Tuesday, despite Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicating a potential hike in the upcoming policy meeting.
Himino suggested that the central bank might consider raising rates, citing sustained wage growth and expectations of a clearer U.S. policy landscape following President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural address later this month.
The yen’s pair edged 0.1% higher to 157.62 yen on Tuesday.
In recent months, the BOJ has been adjusting its monetary policy to address rising inflation. In March last year, it ended its negative interest rate policy, and by July, it had increased the short-term policy rate to 0.25%.
These measures aim to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, supported by robust wage growth and a weakening yen, which have contributed to higher import costs.
Despite these developments, the yen’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable, reflecting market skepticism about the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
Analysts suggest that while the BOJ is signaling a shift towards policy normalization, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and domestic wage dynamics may lead to a cautious approach.
Barclays (LON:) expects the central bank to implement rate hikes in March and October, with a terminal rate of 0.75%.
The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, where new growth and price projections will be discussed.
Forex
UBS notes hedge funds sell GBP amid UK fiscal worries
Forex
US dollar to stay stronger for longer, UBS says
Investing.com — UBS strategists expect the US dollar “to stay stronger for longer,” citing robust US economic activity and ongoing tariff concerns impacting other regions.
Monday saw the (DXY) soar to its highest level since November 2022, trading above the 110 mark during the session. This represents a roughly 9% appreciation since late September.
The US dollar’s recent strength has been bolstered by better-than-expected domestic data, including nonfarm payrolls and the services sector purchasing managers’ index. These positive indicators have led to a decrease in the anticipated number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the consequent rise in US yields lending broad support to the USD.
While US economic data is expected to remain solid in the near term, the outlook for Europe is less optimistic, with subdued growth prospects.
Although growth in China is forecasted to accelerate to 5% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, the threat of US tariffs poses a significant risk. Political and economic uncertainties in South Korea, the European Union, and the UK have been linked to weakness in their respective currencies.
According to UBS, potential monetary policy divergence is among the key factors that could further propel the dollar upward in the near term.
While the Fed is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in the second and third quarters, the European Central Bank is projected to reduce rates by 100 basis points in the first half of the year.
“Policy divergence is a powerful driver of currencies, which leads to trending FX markets and the potential for overshooting exchange rates,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote.
The firm also points out that tariff risks may not be fully accounted for in the current USD valuation. Despite the dollar’s recent rally being largely attributed to solid US macroeconomic data, the introduction of new tariffs could drive the dollar even higher.
UBS suggests that if tariffs are implemented, the DXY could trade between 110 and 115, with significant impacts on other major currency pairs.
“If tariffs were to materialize, DXY could trade in a 110-115 range, could drop below parity, could slide below 1.20, and could move toward 0.94, in our view,” strategists noted.
However, the investment bank believes that the story of 2025 could be a tale of two halves, with the dollar strength in the first half of the year potentially reversing in the second half.
The current trading position of the USD, which is considered strongly overvalued and shows the highest level of dollar net length since 2015, supports this view.
UBS’s revised forecasts for the EUR/USD pair reflect this expected trajectory. Strategists expect the pair to trade at 1.00 in March, 1.02 in June, and 1.06 in December 2025.
In the case of China, despite the possibility of dramatically higher effective tariff rates, the CNY has only partially priced in this risk, with UBS reiterating its forecast for the to reach 7.50 by June.
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