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Cryptocurrency

How High Could Bitcoin Go in This Bull Cycle? Analyst Weighs In

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TL;DR

  • Analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin (BTC) has more room for growth during this bull run before a potential cycle shift.
  • Essential factors like reduced MVRV and negative exchange netflows support the thesis of further gains in the near future.

The Possible Cycle Top

The primary cryptocurrency has been on an evident uptrend in the past several months, charting substantial gains after Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections.

Recall that Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at less than $70K prior to the voting, whereas a month later, it surpassed the psychological level of $100K for the first time in its existence. Despite the volatility, the solid performance continued, and on January 20 (hours before Trump’s inauguration), the asset tapped a new all-time high of almost $110,000. The next 10 days offered more turbulence before BTC stabilized at its current $105,000 (per CoinGecko’s data).

BTC Price
BTC Price, Source: CoinGecko

According to numerous industry participants, the valuation has yet to reach unseen peaks during this bull cycle. The popular X user Ali Martinez recently suggested that BTC could soar to as high as $184,000 before entering a bearish mode. He based his prediction on the assumption that cycle shifts typically occur once the price surpasses 2.4x the 200-day Simple Moving Average (which is set at the depicted mark). 

Many factors signal that BTC might indeed flourish in the following months. One of those includes the asset’s historical performance in February. As CryptoPotato reported, 8 of the last 12 Februaries saw BTC jumping by double digits. It is important to note that next month is a post-halving February, and all previous ones have resulted in impressive spikes. 

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and exchange netflow are also worth mentioning. The former metric has been hovering below the healthy level of 2.5 over the last several days, suggesting that the asset might have shifted toward undervalued territory.

BTC’s exchange netflow has been predominantly negative in the past week, with outflows surpassing inflows. This could be interpreted as a transition from centralized platforms toward self-custody methods, which reduces the immediate selling pressure. 

Additional Bullish Predictions

Martinez is not the only one envisioning further pumps for BTC in the near future. X user Captain Faibik observed the formation of a “broadening wedge pattern” to set a $120,000 target potentially reached in February. 

Michael van de Poppe and Jelle were also bullish. The former thinks a new ATH may occur in the coming weeks, while the latter believes $110K is “the final hurdle” before “a new leg of price discovery awaits.”

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Cryptocurrency

Ripple Taps The Oldest US Bank to Custody RLUSD

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The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon) continues to serve as a global partner for different cryptocurrency-related initiatives, and the latest involves Ripple and its recently launched stablecoin.

According to a press release by the company, the oldest bank in the US will serve as a custodian for RLUSD.

The statement reads that both parties are “jointly committed to paving the way for digital asset adoption at institutional scale, and together, are bridging the gap between traditional finance and crypto.”

RLUSD saw the light of day at the end of last year when the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) gave the green light. It’s now one of the few global stablecoins issued under the agency’s Trust Company Charter.

It is pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, and it is backed by “high-quality liquid assets,” the company stated. Unlike other stablecoins, RLUSD is not focused on retail engagement. Instead, it has been “purpose-built for enterprise utility, particularly in improving the speed, cost, and efficiency of cross-border payments.”

“As primary custodian for RLUSD, we’re proud to support the growth of digital assets by providing a differentiated platform, designed to meet the evolving needs of institutions in the digital assets ecosystem,” commented Emily Portney, Global Head of Asset Servicing at BNY.

In addition to the collaboration for RLUSD custody, Ripple will also utilize BNY’s transaction banking services to “underpin its operations and continue delivering seamless solutions for its customers.”

BNY was one of the first US banks to dip its toes in the cryptocurrency market years ago, well before the country’s political and regulatory landscape became as favorable as it is now. Since the early COVID days, the institution has launched several BTC and crypto-related products and provides custody to certain digital asset firms, such as Grayscale.

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Cryptocurrency

Ripple (XRP) Eyes Breakout After 32-Week Hold Pattern

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TL;DR

  • XRP completes a 32-week consolidation, matching the 2017 pattern that led to an explosive breakout.
  • Futures open interest hits $5.17B, with traders betting big on near-term XRP momentum.
  • Tight Bollinger Bands suggest volatility ahead; the past setup led to a 600% price pump.

XRP Price Trends Higher Amid Low Volume

Ripple (XRP) was trading at $2.34 as of Wednesday, posting a 2.4% gain in the last 24 hours. This follows a rise from $2.26 and extends the asset’s weekly gain to 6.48%. Its total market capitalization now stands at approximately $137.4 billion.

Meanwhile, trading volume has dropped 42.4% in the same period, with $2.58 billion in tokens changing hands. Lower volume during a price rise can signal weaker conviction, though the overall trend remains positive. The 24-hour trading range sits between $2.26 and $2.34.

Technical Setup Mirrors 2017 Pattern

According to trader @Ripplesinwales, XRP’s price has completed a 32-week consolidation period. This pattern matches a similar formation that occurred in 2017, which preceded a sharp breakout in week 33.

Chart data confirms the token is moving out of a long-term symmetrical triangle, a structure that often leads to a directional move. Volume has shown small signs of picking up. This has led traders to monitor the next few sessions closely as a potential breakout window.

Futures Market Open Interest Nears Record

Open interest in XRP futures reached $5.17 billion, marking a 3.07% increase and the highest reading since January. This surge brings XRP’s open futures positions near their previous all-time high. The metric has risen 33% since the June 22 low, showing stronger interest in derivatives markets.

In addition, Coinglass data indicates that open interest peaked at 800 million XRP before settling slightly lower at 743 million. Futures open interest reflects how much capital is deployed in active positions, and growth in this area suggests that traders are positioning for possible larger moves.

As previously reported by CryptoPotato, Steph Is Crypto pointed out that XRP’s Bollinger Bands have recently tightened. The last time the asset saw this setup, it resulted in a 600% price move.

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Why Is AAVE Pumping? $1T Borrow Target Fuels Rally

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TL;DR 

  • AAVE gains 14% in 7 days as cumulative borrows edge toward the $1 trillion mark.
  • Aave dominates DeFi with 22% of total TVL, surpassing Lido in protocol share.
  • The price nears $300 as technical indicators show strength, trading above the Bollinger midline with rising volatility.
  • Analyst says AAVE’s timing aligns with monthly pivot pattern, keeping bulls on alert.

AAVE Approaches Major Borrowing Threshold

Aave (AAVE) was trading at roughly $300 at press time, reflecting a 6.41% increase in the past 24 hours. Over the last 7 days, the price has gained 14.16%, with a market capitalization of approximately $4.54 billion based on a circulating supply of 15 million tokens.

Trading volume has also picked up, with $494.6 million recorded in the last 24 hours. The current daily range is between $280.39 and $300.84, showing sustained interest and strong upward movement from traders and investors.

Consequently, Aave’s total cumulative borrow volume has reached $775 billion, according to a recent update from the protocol. “Trillions next,” the Aave account posted on X, suggesting continued growth and borrowing activity on the platform.

DeFi analytics platform DefiLlama reports that Aave now represents 22% of total DeFi TVL and 46% of TVL within the lending sector. The current TVL across all DeFi platforms stands at $26.426 billion. Aave leads with the largest share, overtaking Lido, which has seen a decline in its dominance within the staking category.

Technical Setups Show Bullish Strength

Looking at the daily chart, AAVE is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility and the possibility of a continued trend. The price remains above the midline of $266.38, a sign that bullish pressure is still active.

AAVE 1-Day Price Chart | Source: TradingView
AAVE 1-Day Price Chart | Source: TradingView

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is at +0.10, pointing to mild positive inflows. A reading above zero reflects buying activity, though current strength remains moderate. If CMF rises further, it could support a stronger move upward.

Analyst Sees Monthly Timing Patterns Align

Crypto analyst Jip Molenaar noted that AAVE often forms its first monthly pivot in the first six days. 

“Around 58% of months the last 5 years form the first pivot early,” they said. 

The second pivot usually appears during the final nine days, which could align with the current market setup.

Meanwhile, with more than two weeks left in the month, traders are watching closely. The price action around this timing window may help define the next direction as AAVE edges closer to key resistance at the $300–$310 zone.

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