TL;DR

• While Anthony Scaramucci claims the Ripple lawsuit is over, no official confirmation exists, with experts predicting a settlement.
• US attorney James Murphy suggests the company is negotiating to vacate Judge Torres’ rulings, which might explain why the case remains ongoing.

The End of the Battle?

A lot has happened in the cryptocurrency space since Donald Trump became America’s 47th President. Some of the major developments are centered on the legal saga between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and certain digital asset entities. 

The agency, whose former anti-crypto Chairman Gary Gensler resigned on January 20, was succeeded by Mark Uyeda (who has an entirely different stance on the matter). Under his leadership, it dismissed its lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap, and more.

In a recent interview, former White House official Anthony Scaramucci claimed that the legal tussle between the SEC and Ripple is also over. The host of the conversation, Scott Melker (known as The Wolf of All Streets), agreed with this assumption. 

Despite Scaramucci’s viewpoint, there is no official information that the lawsuit has finally reached its conclusion. It has been ongoing for more than four years, with some legal experts describing it as totally different from the aforementioned cases. 

US attorney Jeremy Hogan recently predicted that the battle would most likely be resolved after a settlement rather than a dismissal.

“The SEC broke up with Coinbase after a couple dates. Ripple and the SEC live together and have a baby,” he opined. 

The Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett shared a similar thesis, outlining that Judge Torres has already ordered a $125 million penalty on the firm for violating certain rules. 

Negotiations for a Better Deal

The American lawyer James Murphy also chipped in lately. He suggested that the lawsuit remains unsolved because Ripple might be “trying hard to get the SEC to agree to vacate some or all of Judge Torres’ decisions.” 

He agreed that the $125 million fine is “great” for Ripple and the XRP Army since it represents just a fraction of the $2 billion the SEC initially requested.

On the other hand, Murphy maintained that the findings that the company has breached some laws “is not great” for its reputation.

“This is particularly true if Ripple is considering a future exempt securities offering or IPO. I believe the SEC would have accepted a settlement – where both sides dismiss their appeals and the SEC takes the $125 million penalty – in a heartbeat,” the expert added.

Following bitcoin’s euphoric rally on Sunday, the leading crypto asset has returned to levels below the $84,000 range, recording a 10% decline in the last 24 hours. Market experts have attributed this decline to the lack of positive sentiment among United States investors.

Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of the market analytics platform CryptoQuant, believes the bitcoin market will continue to struggle until sentiment improves among U.S. investors.

Bitcoin Market is Slow

Ju stated in a previous tweet that BTC whales on the largest American crypto exchange, Coinbase, led the surge on Sunday. Their efforts were evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which surged from -0.05 to 0.15 as bitcoin’s value jumped by nearly $10,000 within three hours.

Bitcoin’s rally from $85,166 to $94,590 was triggered by United States President Donald Trump’s announcement of the creation of a strategic crypto reserve, including BTC, ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL). Before the rally, BTC and the broader crypto market had struggled, with the leading digital asset plummeting to the $78,000 range for the first time since November 2024.

Currently, BTC has erased all gains recorded on Sunday and was trading around $83,000 at the time of writing. The Coinbase Premium Index has retracted its steps and fallen back to -0.072, a level lower than the range recorded before the rally on Sunday.

It is worth mentioning that a high Coinbase Premium Index signals high demand for BTC among U.S. investors, while a plunge in the metric indicates lower demand.

Bull Cycle Still Intact

The CryptoQuant founder noted that while the current market sentiment is entirely different from late last year when the Coinbase Premium Index mostly hovered above 0, the bull cycle is still intact.

According to Ju, the market is seeing no significant on-chain activity, fundamentals remain strong, and key indicators are neutral. Additionally, more Bitcoin mining rigs are coming online, indicating that miners are not capitulating. However, the possibility that the bull cycle could end at this phase still remains.

“If the cycle ends here, it’s an outcome no one wanted—not old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesn’t care about retail.)” the analyst stated.

The crypto market suffered a dramatic crash after what seemed like a short-lived recovery following US President Donald Trump’s strategic crypto reserve announcement. While Bitcoin is down by over 10% on Tuesday, the rest of the crypto market cap has slid below $2.8 trillion.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that Trump’s economic strategy could have a significant impact on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Debt-Fueled Policies Could Ignite a Bitcoin Rally

In his latest blog post, Hayes said that Trump’s approach to financing his “America First” policies will involve extensive debt issuance, which would require the Federal Reserve to increase money supply and lower interest rates. He noted that such conditions have been historically favorable for Bitcoin.

Hayes also outlined how Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, aims to restructure US debt by extending maturities and reducing yields. He sees this as a “soft default” that lowers real debt burdens.

This, combined with Trump’s push to cut government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), may induce a recession, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to pivot toward monetary easing. The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, would then be expected to cut rates, halt quantitative tightening, and potentially restart quantitative easing – injecting trillions into the financial system.

$1 Million Target

Historically, aggressive monetary expansion has been bullish for Bitcoin. Hayes estimates that potential liquidity injections ranging between $2.74 trillion and $3.24 trillion could trigger a Bitcoin rally similar to the post-COVID surge, where the asset’s price multiplied 24 times despite the current struggle.

Given BTC’s larger market capitalization today, Hayes projected a more conservative but still significant 10x increase, which could drive its price toward $1 million during Trump’s presidency.

Bitcoin’s trajectory, according to Hayes, hinges on the interplay between Trump’s fiscal policies and the Federal Reserve’s response – both of which could set the stage for another major crypto bull run.