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BTC Price Analysis: Where Is Bitcoin Headed After $100K Rejection?

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Bitcoin is struggling with low trading activity and weak momentum, leading to subdued price action near the 100-day moving average.

However, a strong bullish rebound remains possible, contingent on a return of sufficient liquidity to the market.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin remains in a phase of indecision, with price action hovering near the 100-day moving average at $98K. This prolonged consolidation, characterized by low volatility and weak momentum, suggests a balance between buyers and sellers.

The RSI indicator reinforces this notion, highlighting an ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish forces, with the $98K support and the $108K resistance emerging as key battlegrounds. However, a decisive move in either direction is unlikely until liquidity returns to the market. Despite this uncertainty, an ultimate bullish breakout appears more probable, given the presence of multiple support zones below the current price, indicating strong buyer interest.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin initially attempted a bullish push but failed to break above the upper boundary of the bullish flag, facing rejection due to insufficient buying momentum. Consequently, the asset has retraced toward the Fair Value Gap, a historically significant demand zone that has provided support in recent months.

Currently, Bitcoin is confined between the critical $90K support and the dynamic upper trendline of the bullish flag. A breakout above this pattern could ignite a fresh rally, potentially driving the price toward a new all-time high beyond $108K. BTC will likely remain range-bound within this consolidation phase until a clear directional move occurs.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

Given Bitcoin’s indecisive price action and lack of a clear directional move, analyzing market participants’ accumulation and distribution behavior can provide valuable insights.

The chart below illustrates the BTC exchange reserve metric, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin held in trading platforms’ wallets. This metric serves as an indicator of potential selling pressure, as holdings stored on exchanges can be quickly sold.

Notably, the exchange reserve has been declining sharply in recent days, signaling a possible accumulation phase and a reduction in available supply. A similar trend was observed in December 2022, preceding a significant price surge following a substantial drop in exchange reserves. If this pattern persists, it could strengthen the case for an impending bullish breakout.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

Cryptocurrency

Bybit Announces Recovery Bounty Program: 10% of Stolen Funds

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The cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, which just suffered a major security incident, is now launching a recovery bounty program. The team wants to give back 10% of the funds that anyone is able to recover, according to a press release shared with CryptoPotato.

As reported previously, Bybit suffered a security breach, resulting in the theft of over $1.4 billion in ETH. The attack was carried out by the infamous Lazarus group, an organization allegedly run by the North Korean government.

In any case, speaking on the matter was Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of bybit, who said:

We want to officially reward our community, who lent us their expertise, experience, and support through the Recovery Bounty Program and our efforts to make this difficult lesson a valuable one does not stop here. Bybit is determined to rise above the setback and fundamentally transform our security infrastructure, improve liquidity, and be a steadfast partner to our friends in the crypto community.

He also added:

Within 24 hours of the event, we were overwhelmed with support from some of the best people and organizations in the industry, and we do not take it for granted. We have shared in a dark moment of crypto history, and we’ve proven we are better than the malicious actors.

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Bybit Hack Fallout: Arthur Hayes, Samson Mow Push for Ethereum Rollback

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In what is considered now the largest hack within the cryptocurrency industry, Bybit’s hot wallet was compromised when trying to complete a legitimate transfer, and roughly $1.5 billion, mostly in ETH, was stolen by being sent to another address.

Aside from the immediate impact on crypto prices, such a notable incident garnered the attention of the community, and now some prominent figures are calling for a rollback of Ethereum’s chain.

Hayes, Mow Say Yes

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO who described himself as a “mega ETH bag holder,” suggested the rollback shortly after the attack. He believes ETH stopped being money in 2016 when the Ethereum blockchain went through a hard fork (creating Ethereum Classic) after a $60 million hack against The DAO.

Since it has already been done once, Hayes noted that it could happen again. Chinese-Canadian entrepreneur and CEO of JAN3, Samson Mow, supported Hayes’ stance, indicating that such a rollback will not only return the stolen ETH to Bybit but also help prevent “the North Korean government from using those funds to finance their nuclear weapons program.”

He went further, indicating that a potential rollback could readjust EIP-1559 to correct the deflationary burn mechanism, which has failed to an extent.

The Risks

Rolling back Ethereum (or another blockchain) might sound simple, but it’s a highly complex technical move that could jeopardize numerous internal processes. To understand the risks, you should know that the rollback process allows the blockchain to revert back to a previous point in time. This means that it will not only return the stolen ETH to Bybit, but it will erase all other non-hack-related transactions and movements on the Ethereum network.

It has been done only a handful of times (like the aforementioned DAO hack) and is even rarely considered because it is highly controversial as it undermines the immutability of the underlying blockchain.

Many other community members highlighted the risks of such a potential move now, indicating that the Ethereum blockchain is a lot more complex now than it was nine years ago. YugaLabs’ VP, going by the X handle Quit, summarized the risks under Hayes’ post.

As of press time, there has been no official statement by Vitalik Buterin or anyone else from the highest levels of the Ethereum food chain on the matter.

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Yearly Low in Bitcoin Network Activity Hints at Possible Price Drop to $86K: CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin network activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year as demand for the leading digital asset remains low.

A report from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has revealed that the Bitcoin Network Activity Index, which measures the growth across major metrics like active addresses, number of transactions, and block size, is down 17% from its November 2024 record high.

Bitcoin Network Activity in Negative Trend

The network activity index is currently at 3,658, the lowest level since February 2024. It has also fallen below its 365-day moving average, an occurrence not seen since July 2021, after China placed a ban on Bitcoin mining. This indicator signals that activity on the world’s largest blockchain network has entered into a negative trend.

Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth has been on a decline since November-December, when it experienced a period of acceleration.

Following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin demand surged to 279,000; however, the metric hovers around 70,000 today. Factors affecting demand growth include economic uncertainty regarding the imposition of trade tariffs in the U.S., inflation fears, and potential selling pressure from bankrupt crypto exchange FTX repayments.

Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak

The weak demand for BTC is also seen in purchases from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. Bitcoin ETF daily purchases have plummeted from over 18,000 BTC in early November to less than 1,000 BTC currently. CryptoQuant noted that BTC rallies have historically coincided with rising ETF purchases; however, current purchase levels do not support such price surges.

Moreover, CryptoQuant’s Inter-exchange Flow Pulse shows that Bitcoin spot demand has slowed in the U.S. The volume of BTC flowing from other exchanges to Coinbase has declined and fallen below its 90-day moving average, indicating relatively lower demand and a period of price correction.

What’s Next for BTC?

Furthermore, stablecoin liquidity expansion has slowed down. The total market cap of stablecoins has hit new highs above $200 billion; however, their liquidity is expanding at a slower pace. Tether (USDT), for example, has seen a 92% decline from the December 16 60-day change of $20.4 billion in market cap – the figure now sits at $1.5 billion.

CryptoQuant says BTC needs a new wave of stablecoin liquidity expansion to rally again. The cryptocurrency could fall towards $86,000, the Trader’s On-chain Realized Price minimum band, if demand growth and liquidity conditions do not improve soon enough.

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