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Analyst Forecasts BTC Short-Term Holders Could Drive Price to $162K in Weeks

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Bitcoin’s current rally may only be warming up, with market watchers predicting a potential surge to $162,000 by mid-June, largely driven by short-term holders approaching a critical profit threshold.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for those who’ve held the cryptocurrency for a maximum of three months sits at 27%.

The Short-Term Holder Catalyst

In a May 26 post on X, the macro researcher noted that historically, this cohort begins selling when unrealized profits go beyond 40%, creating notable price resistance.

His analysis shows the indicator rising at 0.818 percentage points per day, suggesting it could cross the 40% mark around June 11, 2025, at which point BTC could hit $162,000, barring unexpected macro disruptions.

Adler’s projection may have found some support from pseudonymous analyst Dr. Profit, who flagged a “rare and powerful” Golden Cross signal, which he claims has preceded major Bitcoin rallies in the last two years.

Noting an 87.8% historical accuracy rate on higher timeframes, he cited similar technical setups in October 2023 and October 2024, which triggered price increases of 170% and 173%, respectively.

With the latest signal flashing in May, Dr. Profit is maintaining a short-term range of $117,000 to $120,000, highlighting major price catalysts such as strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, which are absorbing new supply at nine times the mining rate, Strategy’s continued BTC accumulation, and a liquidity cluster at $113,000.

On-Chain Data Reinforcing Bullish Thesis

The flagship cryptocurrency’s recent on-chain behavior has also reinforced the bullish narrative. Per Santiment data, as of May 23, BTC’s Mean Dollar Age, which measures how long coins are held, had dropped from 441 to 429 days since mid-April. This suggests that dormant Bitcoin is moving again, something experts typically view as a hallmark of the early stages of a bull run.

Furthermore, figures from Glassnode indicate that while BTC recently hit an all-time high of $111,814 (ATH) on May 22, realized profit-taking remains subdued. Just $1 billion in profits were realized, an amount less than half of the volume seen when BTC first crossed $100,000.

Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, the crypto asset has gained 2.3%, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU, pushing its weekly rise to 6.7%.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s current price of $110,085 reflects a 16.3% climb over 30 days. And despite slipping 1.6% from its ATH, the king cryptocurrency’s market cap is holding firm at $2.18 trillion, cementing its position as the fifth-largest asset globally.

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US SEC Commences First Formal Review of Spot XRP ETF

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The possibility of trading spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States just went a notch higher. This is because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) just commenced its first formal review of an application seeking to launch an XRP ETF in the country.

According to a filing from the securities agency, it has initiated proceedings to determine whether it will approve or deny an application to list and trade shares of the WisdomTree XRP ETF on the Cboe BZX Exchange. WisdomTree is an asset management firm that issued one of the eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

SEC to Review WisdomTree Spot XRP ETF

The SEC is evaluating whether the proposed rule change to list WisdomTree’s XRP ETF on Cboe BZX is designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative practices. The proposal must implement measures that protect investors and serve the public interest before it can be considered for approval.

Additionally, the SEC noted that the proposal may raise new concerns not previously considered by the agency, and these issues need to be addressed. While the proceedings continue, the Commission has asked interested persons to submit their views regarding the approval or disapproval of the application.

“The Commission asks that commenters address the sufficiency of the Exchange’s statements in support of the proposal, which are set forth in the Notice, in addition to any other comments they may wish to submit about the proposed rule change,” the SEC stated.

Notably, the initiation of proceedings for the proposal does not guarantee that the SEC will approve the product. The agency has roughly 240 days to decide whether the proposal is worth approving or not.

Not the First

It is also worth mentioning that the WisdomTree ETF, if approved, will not be the first XRP fund to be listed in the U.S. Early last month, the Vermont-based asset manager Teucrium launched the first leveraged XRP ETF in the U.S. on NYSE Arca. Towards the end of the month, the fund management company ProShares listed three futures ETFs. The funds provide investors with leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP through derivatives.

The SEC approval of a spot XRP ETF would pave the way for the launch of similar products. This would be a huge win for the XRP community, considering that the token’s issuing company, Ripple, was involved in a tedious legal battle with the SEC for years.

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Monero (XMR) Dumps by Double Digits, Bitcoin (BTC) Calms at $109K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price ascent was stopped ahead of $111,000 yesterday, and the asset has retreated and calmed at around $109,000.

There’s an evident lack of volatility from most altcoins as well, aside from SUI, which has surged by 6%, and XMR, which has dumped hard.

BTC Calms at $109K

Bitcoin reminded of its bull season last week when it finally broke above $109,000 (the January 2025 all-time high) and set a fresh peak of almost $110,000. That was last Wednesday, but it was not the only record set that week.

After a violent but brief retracement, BTC went on the run once again and flew to almost $112,000 on Thursday – the Bitcoin Pizza Day – which became its latest peak.

It stood close to that level on Friday before US President Trump recommended a new set of tariffs against the EU. This has a dramatic and immediate impact on BTC’s price, which tumbled by over three grand in minutes.

Nevertheless, the bulls intervened and didn’t allow another nosedive. Just the opposite, bitcoin started to climb after the quiet weekend and jumped to $110,500 on Monday. It dropped back down to $107,500 before it aimed at $111,000 yesterday.

It didn’t see any success there and is back to $109,000 as of now. Its market cap has declined slightly to $2.165 trillion on CG, and its dominance over the alts is just shy of 61%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

XMR Slumps

The most volatile cryptocurrencies from the top 100 largest ones today are XMR and QNT. They stand on the opposite sides, though, as Monero has slumped by almost 12% to trade below $350. In contrast, QNT has gained 11% and sits close to $120.

SUI is another notable gainer after some promising news on the Cetus hack front. The asset is up by 6% and trades above $3.7.

In contrast, most other larger-cap alts, such as SOL, DOGE, ADA, XRP, TRX, HYPE, SHIB, and others, are slightly in the red. ETH and BNB have marked insignificant gains.

The total crypto market cap has remained at almost the same level as yesterday, of around $3.560 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: is BTC About to Challenge $120K Next?

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Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase just below the $111K level, showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum.

The market is currently in a state of anticipation, waiting for fresh demand or supply to define the next major move. Despite the pause, the broader outlook continues to favour a bullish continuation.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin is currently navigating through a consolidation phase beneath its recently established all-time high of $111K, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum following the breakout above the former ATH at $109K.

The market is showing signs of indecision, awaiting a fresh wave of demand to reignite the uptrend.

Despite the modest pullback to the $109K region, now acting as support, the lack of strong buying activity suggests that the bulls are cautious.

For BTC’s price to resume its upward trajectory and reach the critical psychological level of $120K, increased participation from buyers is essential. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the $109K breakout level, it may trigger a more significant correction, potentially targeting the $100K support zone.

btc_price_chart_2705251
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues to respect an ascending channel structure, consistently forming higher lows and higher highs.

Following its rejection from the $111K resistance zone, the price retreated to the lower boundary of the channel near $106K, where it found temporary support and rebounded slightly.

The market currently reflects a state of balance between bulls and bears, suggesting that further consolidation may occur in the short term.

A breakdown below the channel support could open the door for a sharper decline toward the $100K range. However, as long as the structure remains intact, BTC is more likely to oscillate between the lower trendline and the $111K resistance, building pressure for an eventual decisive breakout that will define the next major move.

btc_price_chart_2705252
Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

Despite reaching a new all-time high at $111K, a wave of profit-taking is typically expected. Particularly if long-term holders start to sell, it could trigger a significant correction. To evaluate whether this cohort is distributing, the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric serves as a key indicator.

Historically, each major peak in Bitcoin’s price during previous bullish cycles has been accompanied by sharp spikes in this metric, reflecting the movement of long-dormant coins to exchanges, often signaling that long-term holders are offloading their assets.

However, this current rally paints a different picture. Despite the price climbing to a new high, the Exchange Inflow CDD has remained subdued. This lack of activity from seasoned holders suggests that they are not yet participating in profit-taking and instead continue to hold their coins with conviction. This behavior underscores strong confidence in the continuation of the uptrend, with expectations for even higher price targets in this cycle.

As long as this group remains inactive and does not exert significant sell pressure, the path remains open for Bitcoin to push toward new highs in the mid-term.

btc_exchange_inflow_2705251
Source: CryptoQuant
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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