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Cryptocurrency

Mounting Evidence of Ethereum’s Struggles: Volatility, ETF Losses, Weak Demand

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Ether’s price has been struggling to break above the $2,750 resistance level, despite rising by over 44% this month.

Now, several evidence point to the altcoin’s struggles throughout the 2023-25 cycle, which revealed both volatility and capital flow patterns that contrast sharply with prior cycles and competitor assets like Bitcoin and Solana.

Ethereum Faces Significant Headwinds

One of the most notable indicators is Ether’s realized volatility, which has compressed across cycles as the asset’s size grows, currently hovering around 80%, down from over 120% in earlier periods, according to Glassnode’s latest report.

Typically, Ether’s 3-month realized volatility rises during bull markets and falls during bearish trends. However, this cycle has defied that pattern. In fact, after reaching 60% at the mid-2024 peak of roughly $4,000, realized volatility surprisingly climbed above 90% even as the price declined toward $1,500. This atypical increase in volatility amid falling prices signals increased market uncertainty and instability.

Moreover, while the drawdown structure in this cycle generally aligns with the typical Ether bull market pattern – where corrections of 40% or more from local peaks are common – the key deviation lies in the absence of a fresh ATH price for the altcoin, unlike Bitcoin and Solana, both of which set new peaks in this cycle. This lack of a new high has been a disappointment for many investors who expected the world’s second-largest crypto asset to track more closely with its peers.

Additionally, Ether’s downside price movements have been unusually volatile, with multiple drawdowns exceeding 40% and the current 2025 drawdown peaking at an unusually severe 65.4%. While previous cycles have seen similar or worse drawdowns, they tended to occur later in the cycle. As such, this early, steep correction suggests structural weaknesses unique to this period.

In terms of capital inflows, the Realized Cap – a measure of the value of all Ether based on the price at which coins last moved – has increased by only 38% since the cycle low in January 2023, growing from $176 billion to $243 billion.

This pales in comparison to the massive growth during the 2021 cycle, which saw more than a 1,000% increase. The relatively muted capital inflow of approximately $67 billion during this cycle underlines weaker liquidity support and helps explain the crypto asset’s subdued price performance.

Supporting this narrative, trade activity on major centralized exchanges has mirrored these trends: spot volume, which peaked at $14.7 billion per day during the $4,000 price high in December 2024, plunged by roughly 80% to $2.9 billion per day. Though recent trading volumes have rebounded to $8.6 billion daily, spot volumes have yet to establish new cycle highs, as seen with previous cycles.

Average ETH ETF investor Substantially Underwater

The firm’s analysis further revealed that the average investor in the BlackRock and Fidelity Ethereum ETFs is currently facing an unrealized loss of approximately 21%. Net outflows from these ETFs have tended to accelerate whenever Ethereum’s spot price drops below the average cost basis, observed during important declines in August 2024 and again in January and March 2025.

Despite initial excitement, the ETFs accounted for only around 1.5% of spot market trade volume at launch, pointing to a lukewarm reception. While this rose to over 2.5% in November 2024, it has since reverted back to 1.5%.

While the current market conditions reveal mounting pressure for the crypto asset, certain market experts also predict that it could hit the $3,000 mark as early as June.

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Cryptocurrency

DOGE Breakout Confirmed? New Bullish Signal Emerges

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TL;DR

  • Dogecoin retests a descending trendline, confirms the breakout, and stabilizes above the $0.24 level.
  • Hidden and regular bullish divergences emerge, strengthening Dogecoin’s short-term upward price setup.
  • Active addresses decline, but price holds firm, signaling accumulation by larger and less active holders.

Dogecoin Retests Trendline and Holds Above Key Level

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a firm structure on the daily chart after retesting a descending trendline. The level, which previously acted as resistance, is now holding as support. The price bounced near $0.23 and has remained above that level through the latest sessions.

Meanwhile, this trendline has shifted from a ceiling to a floor, confirming the breakout. DOGE’s price stood at $0.242 at press time, marking a 2.5% gain in the past 24 hours. After pulling back from $0.27, DOGE is showing signs of holding its ground rather than slipping into a deeper retrace.

According to crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, the daily RSI has confirmed a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern forms when the price makes a higher low while the RSI makes a lower low. It often indicates that the broader uptrend remains in place, despite weaker momentum.

There is no sign of bearish divergence. RSI has also exited the overbought zone, giving DOGE space to move higher without resistance from stretched momentum. These signals suggest the current pullback may have been temporary.

Dual Divergences Appear on 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin formed two bullish divergence patterns between July 24 and 26. The first was a hidden bullish divergence, followed by a regular bullish divergence. These were observed in the same price zone, adding to the case for a trend shift.

DOGE price chart
Source: X

Price has moved higher since then. Buyers have stepped in near short-term lows, and the move above $0.24 confirms follow-through. The $0.22 level remains the main support in this setup.

Fewer Active Addresses, But Price Holds

Glassnode data shows Dogecoin’s number of active addresses has dropped to 58,688 as of July 27, down from over 100,000 in mid-July. Despite the lower activity, DOGE price remains steady above $0.24.

glassnode-studio_doge-number-of-active-addresses
Source: Glassnode

This suggests that fewer users are transacting, but larger holders may be stepping in. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that DOGE is back in a zone that has triggered rallies before. A break above $0.25 could clear the way toward $0.36, where past moves have accelerated.

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Bitcoin Eyes $130K: Breakout, Trade Deal, and M2 Growth Signal Next Leg Up

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be gearing up for its next parabolic move, possibly toward $130,000, if an analyst is correctly reading a multi-pronged surge in technical, macroeconomic, and geopolitical signals.

According to pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, after months of struggling beneath a critical long-term resistance, the flagship cryptocurrency has finally broken above a trendline dating back to the 2021 all-time high, confirming a bullish breakout that he argues the market has yet to fully price in.

Bullish Breakout and Trade Deal Fuel Market Optimism

In a detailed X post on July 28, Doctor Profit highlighted Bitcoin’s decisive monthly breakout above its multi-year diagonal resistance. The said level rejected bulls four months in a row, between November 2024 and February 2025. July’s clean break and retest on the monthly chart signal the beginning of what he calls “the next leg up,” setting the stage for an advance toward $130,000.

Adding fuel to the rally is the recent trade deal between the United States and the European Union announced by President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on July 27. The agreement includes $750 billion in U.S. energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments into U.S. infrastructure, measures expected to lift U.S. stock markets and, by extension, crypto assets like BTC.

“This is very bullish for the mid and long term as there is no longer fear due to a tariff war between countries, especially and most importantly between the US and Europe.”

The announcement had an immediate impact, with Bitcoin rising from $114,500 to over $119,000, while BNB soared to a new all-time high above $850.

Doctor Profit also noted the quietly increasing M2 money supply, reinforcing the sense of macro bullishness. According to him, despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing “quantitative tightening,” M2 has expanded by 2.3% year-to-date, with May and June seeing the most aggressive monthly increase at +0.63%.

Historically, every 1% increase in M2 has roughly corresponded to a 30% to 35% rise in BTC. The analyst suggested that if the correlation holds, Bitcoin could rally another 15% to17.5%, which would land it squarely in the $130,000 zone.

Price Analysis and Broader Market Trends

At the time of this writing, BTC was trading at $119,389, marking a modest 0.9% gain in the last 24 hours and 0.7% over the week. The asset’s performance is more solid across longer time frames, gaining 11.3% in 30 days and 75.6% across the past year. However, its short-term moves lag behind Ethereum (ETH) and select altcoins.

Nevertheless, the OG crypto’s fundamental drivers remain intact. ETF inflows continue to absorb more BTC than is being mined, particularly from issuers like BlackRock, acting as long-term vacuum cleaners. And with the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC decision due this Wednesday, where a rate hold is almost certain, Doctor Profit believes the stage is set for continued liquidity expansion.

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AVAX on Fire: Traders Target $140 as Avalanche DeFi Heats Up

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TL;DR

  • Avalanche DeFi TVL rose to $1.5 billion, driven by faster speeds and lower fees following the upgrade.
  • Daily AVAX activity surged, with 519K users and 10M transactions recorded across chains.
  • AVAX is testing a multi-year trendline, with a potential breakout targeting $140 next.

DeFi Activity Rises After Network Upgrade

Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem has grown sharply over the last quarter. Total value locked (TVL) climbed 37%, reaching $1.5 billion, after the launch of the Octane upgrade, which introduced faster transaction confirmations, lower fees, and a smoother user interface.

AVAX Total value locked (TVL)
Source: Messari

Data shows steady growth in both AVAX-based and USD-based TVL since early 2025. The USD value crossed $2.2 billion in late May, while AVAX-denominated TVL moved past 70 million tokens. These trends reflect higher capital allocation and growing developer activity within the Avalanche ecosystem.

Reports from Messari show that Avalanche’s network usage rose across multiple areas in Q2. Daily transactions increased by almost 170% to an average of 10.1 million. Daily active addresses also averaged over 519,000, up 210%.

Notably, these increases cover activity from Avalanche’s main C-Chain and its Layer 1 subnets. The improvements follow changes introduced by the Octane upgrade, which reduced friction for both users and applications. The numbers point to a growing user base and stronger project engagement.

AVAX Price Builds Momentum Near $27

Avalanche (AVAX) was priced at $27 as of press time. It has gained 9% over the last 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 4%. Trading volume stands at just under $1 billion.

Meanwhile, the token has been moving within a tight range over recent weeks, with buyers defending key support levels. If the price holds above $27, analysts expect the market to test the $30 mark next. Current trends suggest that on-chain growth is starting to reflect in the token’s performance.

Long-term chart data shows that AVAX is testing a descending trendline that has been in place since late 2021. Price action is currently trading on the line of this resistance area. This structure also includes a rounded bottom pattern from 2022 to 2025.

A move above the trendline could open the door to a stronger price push. Chart analyst Smith sees a potential climb toward $140 if volume steps in. This would represent nearly an eightfold gain from current levels. While the breakout is not confirmed, traders are tracking the setup closely as altseason activity increases.

AVAX price chart
Source: X
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