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Tron (TRX) Price Recovery Backed by Sharp Drop in VaR and Beta

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Tron TRX has maintained strong stability during a period of widespread market turbulence. The tenth-largest cryptocurrency has consistently traded above $0.26 for over two weeks and has managed to retain this level even as global trade tensions rise.

This growth amid broader market volatility is supported by a marked decline in key risk metrics.

TRX – A Safer Bet?

Recent analysis indicates that Tron’s Value at Risk (VaR) has decreased significantly in the past few months. This metric, which measures the potential for losses at a 95% confidence level, now points to a more stable and less risky investment profile, according to CryptoQuant.

The simultaneous drop in VaR during a period of price recovery highlighted Tron’s strengthening position in the market. In addition, TRX’s daily rolling Beta against Bitcoin has also declined notably. A lower Beta means that TRX is becoming less sensitive to Bitcoin’s price movements, which essentially suggests a reduced correlation and improved independence from broader market swings.

Such a decoupling indicates a shift toward a more mature and stable asset. Together, the lower VaR and Beta metrics suggest that Tron is not only recovering in price but doing so with reduced volatility and systemic risk.

“This powerful combination – price appreciation alongside reduced risk and market correlation – positions Tron as an increasingly attractive asset. It highlights a maturing ecosystem and a more robust foundation for future performance.”

Stablecoins Pour Into Tron, Drain From Ethereum

The current bullish signal in the Tron ecosystem has been building gradually as market participants shifted toward the asset. Lookonchain’s analysis recently revealed that the Tron network has seen a significant inflow of stablecoins, with USDT and USDC balances collectively increasing by $2.12 billion in a span of seven days.

On the other hand, the Ethereum network experienced an outflow as stablecoin balances dropped by $2.44 billion over the same period. This divergence highlighted a growing shift in user preference and capital allocation toward Tron, which is likely driven by its lower transaction fees and faster settlement speeds.

The development also marked a shift in stablecoin activity as liquidity moved away from Ethereum to Tron. The increased adoption is likely one of the price catalysts playing out on the market now.

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ETH Breaks Key Resistance: Analyst Eyes $3K as Institutional FOMO Kicks In

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Ethereum (ETH) has surged past a critical resistance level at $2,600, sparking fresh bullish sentiment across the market as analysts and investors alike set their sights on the psychologically significant $3,000 mark.

With growing institutional interest, whale accumulation, and renewed momentum against Bitcoin (BTC), ETH’s latest rally is being hailed as the beginning of a broader altcoin resurgence.

ETF Inflows, Whale Activity Fuel Bullish Momentum

At the time of this writing, ETH had risen slightly in the last 24 hours, gaining 0.9% to go just beyond $2,640. Over seven days, the asset’s price fluctuated between $2,482 and $2,771, with the current value a 0.2% increase over that time. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency still edged out the broader digital asset market, which is down 1.9% this week.

ETH has also shone in longer periods, up a respectable 4.4% across two weeks and a more eye-catching 46.3% in the past month.

Market watchers are pointing to strong institutional accumulation as a primary driver of Ethereum’s upward movement. On June 4, pseudonymous crypto trader Doctor Profit reported visible on-chain signs of large players scooping up ETH, including a significant uptick in buying from BlackRock.

Echoing this, crypto enthusiast Kyle Chassé noted that a single whale wallet had acquired more than 108,000 ETH, worth almost $285 million, in less than 24 hours. This institutional embrace has been corroborated by data from CoinShares, which shows investment products based on the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency attracting almost $1.2 billion over six consecutive weeks, the strongest inflow streak since December 2024.

Based on this uptick in accumulation, Doctor Profit is explicitly calling for $3,000 “anytime soon” while targeting $4,000 ahead of a potential all-time high attempt “in late summer.” He also noted the profitability of rotating from assets like XRP, which has been down 7% recently, into ETH, which has gone up 6% in the same period.

Foundation Restructuring

The outlook may be overwhelmingly bullish, but a note of caution stems from the Ethereum Foundation itself.

The significant restructuring and layoffs announced yesterday within the Protocol Research and Development team highlight ongoing internal challenges related to scalability, blob space expansion, and user experience.

While aimed at long-term efficiency, such moves can introduce near-term uncertainty, which could affect the price of ETH.

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Bitcoin Futures Market Signals Bullish Momentum as Short Liquidations Dominate

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Despite a recent cooling in price, Bitcoin’s futures market is flashing bullish signals, suggesting the leading cryptocurrency may be gearing up for another leg upward, even as leveraged traders get wiped out in liquidation cascades.

Data highlighted by market analyst Axel Adler Jr. earlier today reveals a liquidation dominance oscillator hovering around -11%. This negative reading indicates a clear skew towards the forced closure of bearish or short contracts.

Institutional Bets Drive Market Dynamics

In his post on X, Adler noted, “the predominance of short-contract liquidations points to buyer strength in the futures market.” Crucially, he observed the absence of extreme readings such as the -19 seen in April 2024 or the -24 from January 2023, suggesting the market is exhibiting bullish momentum without the dangerous “overheating” that often comes before sharp local reversals.

This futures activity is unfolding against a backdrop of consolidation with BTC retreating by about 5.8% from its record peak of $111,814 set on May 22. At the time of this writing, the crypto asset was trading at $105,366, effectively flat on the day. In the last month, it gained 11.2%, even though it dipped 3.2% over the past seven days, slightly underperforming the broader crypto market, which declined by 2.2% over the same period. The retracement, while significant, seems to be part of a wider cycle of profit-taking and leverage cleansing.

In a June 3 report, analysts from Bitfinex highlighted that open interest in BTC options peaked at $49.4 billion last week, $6 billion above the previous ATH, before it slid to $39 billion after May 29 expiries. According to them, the futures market followed a similar path, with high derivatives, reflecting growing institutional involvement and expectations of increased volatility.

This view is similar to that of veteran technical analyst Willy Woo, who warned that BTC is currently vulnerable to what he called “liquidation hunts” because of inflated open interest, which had risen to $80 billion before falling slightly to $72 billion.

According to Woo, the current market conditions are a “perfect setup” for forced flushouts before Bitcoin resumes its upward trend.

Underlying Strength Suggests Bullish Continuation Ahead

However, institutional conviction appears to be growing in the middle of the short-term turbulence. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, pointed out in a post on X that BTC is outperforming traditional risk assets on a volatility-adjusted basis. He stressed that the asset’s rising hash rate, now at an all-time high, was a key indicator of network strength and long-term resilience.

Retail interest, however, remains tepid. Daan Crypto Trades noted today that search volume for “Bitcoin” has dropped following the post-election bump, suggesting that the latest cycle is largely institution-driven.

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Interesting Cardano (ADA) Price Predictions as of Late

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TL;DR

  • Popular analysts remain bullish on ADA, pointing to strong fundamentals, rising adoption, and other factors as signs of a potential rebound.

  • Data shows ADA outflows from exchanges have significantly exceeded inflows lately, hinting at reduced selling pressure and a possible foundation for upward price movement.

Time for ADA to Shine Again?

The price of Cardano’s native token has plunged by around 9% on a weekly scale to the current $0.69 (per CoinGecko’s data). Despite the pullback, though, analysts and industry participants remain optimistic that a rebound could be on the way.

The X user Sssebi assumed that ADA is gearing up for a rally, claiming that “the bulls are strong and the buying pressure is growing.” Prior to that, the trader suggested that the asset’s recent drop to nearly $0.65 could have signaled a local bottom. “Let’s get above $0.70 now and back above $0.75,” they added.

Lucky chipped in, too. The analyst, who has over 2.2 million followers on X, described ADA as a “top 10 gem, primed for another move.”

This isn’t the first time Lucky has spoken favorably about ADA. Earlier this year, the analyst envisioned a price pump beyond $2, citing Cardano’s “strong fundamentals, rising adoption,” and growing ecosystem. 

The X users, Henry and Ali Martinez, also gave their two cents recently. The former labeled ADA as the ocean: “calm, deep, and misunderstood. The analyst claimed that the token was “built to last, forecasting a surge to $3 sometime this year. 

Martinez touched upon the matter in mid-May when ADA was worth around $0.78. He assumed that the price may hit $1 in case it breaks above the resistance level of $0.81. 

The valuation briefly soared above that mark in the following days, only to head south shortly after. In fact, the last time the cryptocurrency traded beyond $1 was in early March this year. 

Selling Pressure Goes Down

An essential element worth observing when trying to predict ADA’s future price dynamics is the asset’s exchange netflow. Data compiled by CoinGlass reveals that, in recent weeks, outflows have significantly outpaced inflows.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

This trend suggests that investors may have transitioned from centralized exchanges to self-custody solutions, thereby reducing the immediate selling pressure.

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