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Cryptocurrency

Tron (TRX) Price Recovery Backed by Sharp Drop in VaR and Beta

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Tron TRX has maintained strong stability during a period of widespread market turbulence. The tenth-largest cryptocurrency has consistently traded above $0.26 for over two weeks and has managed to retain this level even as global trade tensions rise.

This growth amid broader market volatility is supported by a marked decline in key risk metrics.

TRX – A Safer Bet?

Recent analysis indicates that Tron’s Value at Risk (VaR) has decreased significantly in the past few months. This metric, which measures the potential for losses at a 95% confidence level, now points to a more stable and less risky investment profile, according to CryptoQuant.

The simultaneous drop in VaR during a period of price recovery highlighted Tron’s strengthening position in the market. In addition, TRX’s daily rolling Beta against Bitcoin has also declined notably. A lower Beta means that TRX is becoming less sensitive to Bitcoin’s price movements, which essentially suggests a reduced correlation and improved independence from broader market swings.

Such a decoupling indicates a shift toward a more mature and stable asset. Together, the lower VaR and Beta metrics suggest that Tron is not only recovering in price but doing so with reduced volatility and systemic risk.

“This powerful combination – price appreciation alongside reduced risk and market correlation – positions Tron as an increasingly attractive asset. It highlights a maturing ecosystem and a more robust foundation for future performance.”

Stablecoins Pour Into Tron, Drain From Ethereum

The current bullish signal in the Tron ecosystem has been building gradually as market participants shifted toward the asset. Lookonchain’s analysis recently revealed that the Tron network has seen a significant inflow of stablecoins, with USDT and USDC balances collectively increasing by $2.12 billion in a span of seven days.

On the other hand, the Ethereum network experienced an outflow as stablecoin balances dropped by $2.44 billion over the same period. This divergence highlighted a growing shift in user preference and capital allocation toward Tron, which is likely driven by its lower transaction fees and faster settlement speeds.

The development also marked a shift in stablecoin activity as liquidity moved away from Ethereum to Tron. The increased adoption is likely one of the price catalysts playing out on the market now.

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Cryptocurrency

DOGE Breakout Confirmed? New Bullish Signal Emerges

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TL;DR

  • Dogecoin retests a descending trendline, confirms the breakout, and stabilizes above the $0.24 level.
  • Hidden and regular bullish divergences emerge, strengthening Dogecoin’s short-term upward price setup.
  • Active addresses decline, but price holds firm, signaling accumulation by larger and less active holders.

Dogecoin Retests Trendline and Holds Above Key Level

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a firm structure on the daily chart after retesting a descending trendline. The level, which previously acted as resistance, is now holding as support. The price bounced near $0.23 and has remained above that level through the latest sessions.

Meanwhile, this trendline has shifted from a ceiling to a floor, confirming the breakout. DOGE’s price stood at $0.242 at press time, marking a 2.5% gain in the past 24 hours. After pulling back from $0.27, DOGE is showing signs of holding its ground rather than slipping into a deeper retrace.

According to crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, the daily RSI has confirmed a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern forms when the price makes a higher low while the RSI makes a lower low. It often indicates that the broader uptrend remains in place, despite weaker momentum.

There is no sign of bearish divergence. RSI has also exited the overbought zone, giving DOGE space to move higher without resistance from stretched momentum. These signals suggest the current pullback may have been temporary.

Dual Divergences Appear on 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin formed two bullish divergence patterns between July 24 and 26. The first was a hidden bullish divergence, followed by a regular bullish divergence. These were observed in the same price zone, adding to the case for a trend shift.

DOGE price chart
Source: X

Price has moved higher since then. Buyers have stepped in near short-term lows, and the move above $0.24 confirms follow-through. The $0.22 level remains the main support in this setup.

Fewer Active Addresses, But Price Holds

Glassnode data shows Dogecoin’s number of active addresses has dropped to 58,688 as of July 27, down from over 100,000 in mid-July. Despite the lower activity, DOGE price remains steady above $0.24.

glassnode-studio_doge-number-of-active-addresses
Source: Glassnode

This suggests that fewer users are transacting, but larger holders may be stepping in. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that DOGE is back in a zone that has triggered rallies before. A break above $0.25 could clear the way toward $0.36, where past moves have accelerated.

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Bitcoin Eyes $130K: Breakout, Trade Deal, and M2 Growth Signal Next Leg Up

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be gearing up for its next parabolic move, possibly toward $130,000, if an analyst is correctly reading a multi-pronged surge in technical, macroeconomic, and geopolitical signals.

According to pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, after months of struggling beneath a critical long-term resistance, the flagship cryptocurrency has finally broken above a trendline dating back to the 2021 all-time high, confirming a bullish breakout that he argues the market has yet to fully price in.

Bullish Breakout and Trade Deal Fuel Market Optimism

In a detailed X post on July 28, Doctor Profit highlighted Bitcoin’s decisive monthly breakout above its multi-year diagonal resistance. The said level rejected bulls four months in a row, between November 2024 and February 2025. July’s clean break and retest on the monthly chart signal the beginning of what he calls “the next leg up,” setting the stage for an advance toward $130,000.

Adding fuel to the rally is the recent trade deal between the United States and the European Union announced by President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on July 27. The agreement includes $750 billion in U.S. energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments into U.S. infrastructure, measures expected to lift U.S. stock markets and, by extension, crypto assets like BTC.

“This is very bullish for the mid and long term as there is no longer fear due to a tariff war between countries, especially and most importantly between the US and Europe.”

The announcement had an immediate impact, with Bitcoin rising from $114,500 to over $119,000, while BNB soared to a new all-time high above $850.

Doctor Profit also noted the quietly increasing M2 money supply, reinforcing the sense of macro bullishness. According to him, despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing “quantitative tightening,” M2 has expanded by 2.3% year-to-date, with May and June seeing the most aggressive monthly increase at +0.63%.

Historically, every 1% increase in M2 has roughly corresponded to a 30% to 35% rise in BTC. The analyst suggested that if the correlation holds, Bitcoin could rally another 15% to17.5%, which would land it squarely in the $130,000 zone.

Price Analysis and Broader Market Trends

At the time of this writing, BTC was trading at $119,389, marking a modest 0.9% gain in the last 24 hours and 0.7% over the week. The asset’s performance is more solid across longer time frames, gaining 11.3% in 30 days and 75.6% across the past year. However, its short-term moves lag behind Ethereum (ETH) and select altcoins.

Nevertheless, the OG crypto’s fundamental drivers remain intact. ETF inflows continue to absorb more BTC than is being mined, particularly from issuers like BlackRock, acting as long-term vacuum cleaners. And with the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC decision due this Wednesday, where a rate hold is almost certain, Doctor Profit believes the stage is set for continued liquidity expansion.

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AVAX on Fire: Traders Target $140 as Avalanche DeFi Heats Up

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TL;DR

  • Avalanche DeFi TVL rose to $1.5 billion, driven by faster speeds and lower fees following the upgrade.
  • Daily AVAX activity surged, with 519K users and 10M transactions recorded across chains.
  • AVAX is testing a multi-year trendline, with a potential breakout targeting $140 next.

DeFi Activity Rises After Network Upgrade

Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem has grown sharply over the last quarter. Total value locked (TVL) climbed 37%, reaching $1.5 billion, after the launch of the Octane upgrade, which introduced faster transaction confirmations, lower fees, and a smoother user interface.

AVAX Total value locked (TVL)
Source: Messari

Data shows steady growth in both AVAX-based and USD-based TVL since early 2025. The USD value crossed $2.2 billion in late May, while AVAX-denominated TVL moved past 70 million tokens. These trends reflect higher capital allocation and growing developer activity within the Avalanche ecosystem.

Reports from Messari show that Avalanche’s network usage rose across multiple areas in Q2. Daily transactions increased by almost 170% to an average of 10.1 million. Daily active addresses also averaged over 519,000, up 210%.

Notably, these increases cover activity from Avalanche’s main C-Chain and its Layer 1 subnets. The improvements follow changes introduced by the Octane upgrade, which reduced friction for both users and applications. The numbers point to a growing user base and stronger project engagement.

AVAX Price Builds Momentum Near $27

Avalanche (AVAX) was priced at $27 as of press time. It has gained 9% over the last 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 4%. Trading volume stands at just under $1 billion.

Meanwhile, the token has been moving within a tight range over recent weeks, with buyers defending key support levels. If the price holds above $27, analysts expect the market to test the $30 mark next. Current trends suggest that on-chain growth is starting to reflect in the token’s performance.

Long-term chart data shows that AVAX is testing a descending trendline that has been in place since late 2021. Price action is currently trading on the line of this resistance area. This structure also includes a rounded bottom pattern from 2022 to 2025.

A move above the trendline could open the door to a stronger price push. Chart analyst Smith sees a potential climb toward $140 if volume steps in. This would represent nearly an eightfold gain from current levels. While the breakout is not confirmed, traders are tracking the setup closely as altseason activity increases.

AVAX price chart
Source: X
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