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Cryptocurrency

CQ CEO Backtracks on BTC Cycle Theory, Now Cites Institutional Surge

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared that the long-standing Bitcoin (BTC) cycle theory is “dead,” and has issued a public apology for his earlier bearish predictions.

Ju, once a proponent of cycle-based forecasting, where he advocated buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail floods in, acknowledged that “the pattern no longer holds” amid a structural transformation led by institutional investors.

The Death of the Bitcoin Cycle Theory

In a July 25 post on X, Ju explained that old whales are selling to new long-term whales, adding that holders now outnumber traders and traditional trading strategies now feel “pointless.”

“My mistake was ignoring this shift in my ‘bull cycle is over’ call,” wrote the CQ founder. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment. I’ll be more careful with forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights.”

For years, BTC’s price movements followed a familiar rhythm: whales accumulated early, retail FOMO kicked in near the top, and a bear market ensued. However, CryptoQuant’s latest on-chain analysis supports Ju’s new stance. The report shows that in contrast to past cycles where retail investors dominated euphoric peaks, today’s rally is characterized by their absence.

Retail selling has intensified, particularly on platforms like Binance, where inflows from small traders surged from $12 billion to $16 billion over the past month. Instead, it’s deep-pocketed investors, institutions, high-volume wallets, and ETFs that are aggressively accumulating. Whales Screener data from earlier in the week supports this, showing over $200 million in BTC was withdrawn from exchanges in one 24-hour period to signal long-term conviction further.

Google Trends has also shown muted retail interest, a stark contrast to the social media frenzy of 2021. “This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021,” CryptoQuant noted. “Quiet and smart money is currently on stage.”

Last year, Stockmoney Lizards, another prominent analyst account, made observations similar to Ju’s. They argued this current cycle “marks the beginning of something different,” with Wall Street and TradFi institutions entering the market in droves. “Mass adoption has started,” they claimed, suggesting future BTC market behavior may resemble the S&P 500 more than the boom-bust patterns of days gone by.

A Few Believers Remain

However, not everyone agrees. On July 16, pseudonymous analyst CryptoCon pushed back against the growing debate over Bitcoin’s future trajectory, asserting that the four-year halving cycle is still intact.

“People expect the 4-year cycle to die every time. It hasn’t,” they said, projecting a cycle top between October and December 2025.

Amid the debate, BTC is trading at $115,500, a 2.5% dip in the last 24 hours and a 4.7% decline over the past week. This means it is underperforming the broader crypto market, which is down just 1.5% in that period.

The flagship cryptocurrency is now 6.2% below its all-time high set on July 14, though it remains up 8.6% in the last 30 days and nearly 80% year-on-year.

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Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Price Recovers $3K, SUI Rockets 10% to $4: Weekend Watch

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Bitcoin’s sudden nosedive on Thursday evening and most of Friday has finally stopped as the asset bounced off and recovered three grand from bottom to top.

The altcoins are also well in the green today, with ETH jumping back above $3,700 and SUI marking a notable double-digit surge.

BTC Reclaims $117K

The primary cryptocurrency was in a consolidation phase since July 14, when it hit a new all-time high of over $123,000. In the following ten days or so, it remained sideways around $118,000, with a few brief attempts for a breakout in each direction.

The buyers and sellers managed to maintain equilibrium for a while, but the bears took control on Thursday evening as Galaxy Digital began disposing of massive portions of BTC. In a matter of hours, bitcoin’s price tumbled from over $119,000 to a two-week low at $114,500.

After dumping by more than four grand, the bulls finally reemerged and didn’t allow a further breakdown. Just the opposite, BTC bounced off and jumped past $117,000, where it stands as of press time as well.

Crypto analysts believe this could be a pivotal moment if it manages to maintain above this level, as it could open the doors for fresh ATHs next week.

Alts in Green

The altcoins experienced substantial losses at the end of the business week but have reacted well today, with notable gains. Ethereum is above $3,700 once again after a 3.5% daily jump. XRP defended the $3 resistance and is now at $3.15.

Solana, HYPE, XLM, LINK, and BCH have charted even more impressive gains, while SUI and HBAR are up by double-digits. The former has tapped $4, while the latter is above $0.26.

The top performers from the largest 100 alts include ENA (17%), SPX (14%), and SKY (13%). The total crypto market cap has gained roughly $70 billion since yesterday’s bottom and is up to $3.940 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

Whales Bought the XRP Dip While DOGE Hits Key Accumulation Zone: Details

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TL;DR

  • Ripple’s native token was among the poorest performers during the Thursday and Friday market crash, dropping below $3 after the recent all-time high.
  • This has allowed large investors to buy the dip, while Dogecoin’s surge today has pushed it back to a key accumulation zone.

Recall that the third-largest cryptocurrency posted a new all-time high at the end of last week when it finally broke above the 2018 peak of $3.4 and surged beyond $3.6. However, it started to retrace in the following days, which culminated on Friday with a slip below $3.

This came amid worrying moves by Upbit, longs getting crushed on Binance, and a reported sell-off of $140 million worth of XRP from one of Ripple’s co-founders.

Nevertheless, the cross-border payments token managed to remain above the crucial $3 resistance and has recovered some ground to $3.17 as of press time. This dip didn’t go unnoticed by large investors, as they have accumulated over 130 million tokens in just 24 hours. From a USD perspective, this stash is worth roughly $400 million.

Meanwhile, the crowd became a lot less greedy in regard to XRP (and BTC), which could be considered a bullish signal.

When it comes to DOGE, the popular analyst Ali Martinez said it has returned in a “range that has historically served as a buying zone, triggering major bull runs.”

He further noted that DOGE has to reclaim the $0.25 resistance, which would be a “huge win.” If it does, then the path toward $0.36 will be cleared with “almost zero resistance.”

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Is This the Ultimate Bullish Signal for BTC and XRP?

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The cryptocurrency market experienced some turbulence at the end of the business week, with multiple assets dropping by up to 10% from their local peaks.

BTC and XRP are no exception. Both dropped hard, driven to an extent by FUD from large sell-offs. Now, though, Santiment has outlined a big bullish sign.

BTC, XRP to Reverse Trajectories?

Remember Warren Buffett’s wisdom about investing – buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy? This narrative has been particularly impactful in the cryptocurrency market, where greed and fear often dominate investors’ thoughts.

Santiment has also been a massive proponent of the thesis, and the company’s latest post highlights the recent changes in investors’ behavior. According to the overall social dominance, it determined that BTC and XRP have dropped out of the greed zone, even though both registered new all-time highs just last week and are currently trading close below them.

This is mostly because BTC dumped from over $123,000 to under $115,000, while XRP slipped from $3.65 to just below $3. However, Santiment said markets tend to move in the opposite direction of what the crowd expects, which “actually makes BTC and XRP buy-low candidates.”

The same theory cannot be applied to ETH at the moment, though. The second-largest digital asset has soared by triple-digits from its April lows, and retail investors continue to be greedy, which might not be such a good sign for it.

Galaxy Completes Sell-Off

Perhaps driven by substantial sell-offs initiated by Galaxy Digital for a third party, BTC’s price slumped hard yesterday to a two-week low. However, Mike Novograz’s company announced late on Friday that it had successfully executed “one of the largest national bitcoin transactions in the history of crypto on behalf of a client.”

“Galaxy completed the sale of more than 80,000 bitcoin—valued at over $9 billion based on current market prices—for a Satoshi-era investor, representing one of the earliest and most significant exits from the digital asset market.”

With such a massive sell-off out of the picture and retail’s lack of greed for BTC, the asset could be primed for another leg up to and beyond its all-time high.

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