Investing.com — Goldman Sachs has delayed its gold price target of $3,000 per ounce, pushing the forecast to mid-2026 instead of the previous expectation for December 2025. 

The revision comes as Goldman’s economists now foresee fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with a smaller anticipated reduction of 75 basis points, compared to the 100 basis points expected previously. 

The change is expected to slow the pace of ETF gold buying, leading to a delayed rise in gold prices.

In a research note on Monday, Goldman Sachs stated, “We now forecast that gold will rise about 14% to $3,000/toz by 2026Q2 (vs. Dec25 previously) and now expect it to reach $2,910/toz by end-2025.” 

While central bank demand for gold remains a key driver of the bullish forecast, contributing a projected 12% increase by 2026Q2, weaker-than-expected ETF flows following the resolution of the U.S. elections have dampened price expectations, according to the investment bank.

Speculative demand, which surged ahead of the U.S. election, has since moderated, keeping prices range-bound.

Goldman Sachs maintains that structural factors, particularly “structurally higher central bank demand,” will provide support for gold prices, even as ETF demand grows at a slower pace. 

Central bank purchases, particularly following the freeze of Russian assets, have surged, and Goldman expects this trend to continue, with monthly purchases averaging 38 tonnes through mid-2026, more than double the pre-freeze level.

Despite this positive outlook, the analysts cautioned that the risks to their forecast remain balanced. 

They explained that a “higher for longer” federal funds rate represents the main downside risk, while a potential U.S. recession or “insurance cuts” could drive prices above the $3,000 mark.

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices steadied at their highest since mid-October as colder weather spurred buying while further support came from expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports.

futures gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.73 a barrel by 1133 GMT, their highest since Oct. 14.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.19 for its highest since Oct. 11.

Oil had previously chalked up five sessions of gains, buoyed by hopes of rising demand after colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and more fiscal stimulus to revitalise China’s faltering economy.

Brent crude was supported by colder than normal weather in northwest Europe and the United States, a rally in prices and higher refining profit margins, said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

Investors are also awaiting economic news for more clues on energy consumption and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting are due on Wednesday and the December payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:), the world’s top oil exporter, has raised crude prices in February for buyers in Asia, the first increase in three months. A rise in these prices usually indicates firmer demand expectations.

On the supply front, stronger Western sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil shipments are a distinct possibility.

The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Sunday.

Goldman Sachs expects Iranian oil production and exports to fall by the second quarter as a result of expected policy changes and tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.

Output at the OPEC producer could drop by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.25 million bpd by the second quarter, the bank said.