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Commodities

China refiners stoke petrochemical glut in market share war as demand flags

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China is relentlessly adding new petrochemical capacity despite a global glut as the country’s refiners diversify from transport fuels, threatening to depress margins worldwide through 2024 as weak economic growth saps demand.

In an ominous sign for producers of the chemicals used in plastic packaging, polyester clothing and auto parts, refiners’ profit margins on processing naphtha to make ethylene turned negative last week for the first time since October.

The profit crunch is being driven by China’s refiners boosting output of olefins such as ethylene to offset an expected decline in sales of petrol and diesel as electric vehicle take-up accelerates. Their capacity expansion is outpacing growth in demand for the chemicals.

Global demand for ethylene and propylene is forecast to surge 29% from 2023 to 426.8 million metric tons by 2030, while capacity is expected to jump 25% from 2023 to 485.9 million metric tons by 2030, research firm Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) estimates.

New capacity in China is expected to make up more than half of that growth, according to the International Energy Agency.

In 2023, WoodMac sees China’s output growth creating a local surplus of 4.24 million metric tons of ethylene and an even bigger oversupply of propylene at 8.69 million metric tons.

“The surplus of olefins will be pushed onto the water to clear elsewhere in Asia or further afield in Europe and the U.S. at steep discounts,” Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.

“This poses more risk to utilisation rates in the rest of Asia and Europe, which are more sensitive to margin compression.”

MARKET SHARE BATTLE

Newly launched refinery complexes by state giant PetroChina’s Guangdong Petrochemical and privately-run Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical have added to surging petrochemical supply from mega refiners Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Hengli Petrochemical that has come online in recent years.

Despite margin pressure, Chinese producers are likely to keep plants operating to protect market share and prevent deeper losses that would result from shutting units, a Chinese refining source said, declining to be named.

Producers are already feeling the pain in their battle against each other for market share.

Asia’s largest refiner, China’s state-run Sinopec Corp, warned in its first-quarter report that its chemicals business faced pressure from competing new supply and a tepid recovery in demand.

Independent refiner Hengli Petrochemical’s net profit slid nearly 76% in the first quarter due to “high operating costs and low industry demand,” the company said in April.

Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical swung to net losses in the first quarter.

The world’s largest producer and consumer of petrochemicals, China has been unable to absorb the extra output as its domestic market has struggled to recover from three years of strict COVID-19 curbs and weaker global demand for its exports.

Since the pandemic, Chinese consumption patterns have prioritised socialising over spending on goods, Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, TotalEnergies’s global head of petrochemical trading.

While Chinese demand from some sectors such as inexpensive clothing and daily essentials is robust, other sectors such as automative have yet to recover in line with expectations, said Salmon Lee, global head of polyesters at consultancy WoodMac.

Pointing to high petrochemical stockpiles, Lee said: “The destocking process could take time.”

($1 = 7.1779 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Commodities

Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.

inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.

The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.

Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. 

Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.

Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals

The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

The  rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.

Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.

Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.

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Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.

At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.

Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.

Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. 

China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices. 

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.

To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

US crude inventories shrink- API

US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.

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Commodities

Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions

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Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.

rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains. 

The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.

Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.

US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high

The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook

Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.

Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)  rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.

Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.

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