Commodities
Crude oil prices forecast: Swiss analysts predict $110 a barrel
New crude oil prices forecast. In the second half of 2023, world prices for Brent crude oil will rise to $110 per barrel, and in the coming months will exceed the threshold of a hundred dollars. This forecast, quite favorable for Russia, was made by the largest Swiss financial holding UBS. Meanwhile, at the moment, oil continues to fall in price, and so far this trend looks quite stable.
Will the forecast come true? Crude oil prices real time
Crude oil prices in real time will be pushed by the restoration of demand for energy in emerging markets as a whole, and in China in particular, analysts believe UBS. According to their calculations, demand for oil in China will exceed the level of 2019. At the same time, to the maximum extent will be aware of the key energy problems in 2022 due to sanctions against Russian supplies of raw materials and the chronic underfunding of oil production.
On Wednesday, January 4, oil quotes accelerated their fall to nearly 3%, with Brent futures falling below $80 a barrel. The previous trading day, the first one this year, the price of Brent dropped by 4.43% at once, to $82.1. On Thursday, January 5, the price was $79.65 per barrel.
The situation is associated with an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China (which worsens the short-term prospects for oil demand in this country). There are also concerns about a possible recession in the global economy. Also, China’s non-manufacturing sector business activity index (PMI) fell to 41.6 points in December from 46.7 in November.
Now all forecasts on oil prices, including UBS estimates, are tentative. In this case, the Swiss holding joined a group of large international banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, which voiced the same figure – $110 per barrel, in the second half of the year or in the 4th quarter. However, there is another expert point of view, according to which oil will cost about $90 on average. It is hard to say who is closer to the truth here, we have to wait at least two months until the risks associated with the sanctions are realized.
On January 19-20, the last contracts concluded between Russia and foreign buyers of its energy resources before December 5, the date of entry into force of EU sanctions (embargo on maritime deliveries and the ceiling price of $ 60 per barrel) expired. And until they are implemented, it is difficult to predict further price trajectory.
Also, the UBS forecast does not consider the factor of a likely global recession. The recession in 2023 will cover one third of the world’s economy. It means that consumption and, consequently, demand for energy carriers will decrease. In such a case, there will be neither a deficit, nor a serious (maximum up to $90 per barrel) rise in oil prices.
Earlier, we reported that oil prices slowed down after Saudi Aramco’s decision to sell prices.
Investing.com–Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as optimism around China’s economic growth lifted market sentiment.
The were last up 0.8% to $76.6 a barrel, and expiring in February was up 1.1% to $73.3 a barrel.
Oil had gained sharply in the previous session after data showed growth in Chinese factory activity.
Both contracts were on course for second consecutive weekly gains, with WTI 1.3% and 0.9% higher.
Chinese stimulus hopes support oil prices
China’s grew in December, a Caixin/S&P Global survey showed on Thursday, but at a slower pace than expected.
An official survey released on Tuesday also showed that China’s manufacturing activity barely grew in December. However, services and construction fared better, with the data suggesting that policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors.
Beijing has signaled looser monetary policy for 2025 and has doled out a raft of major stimulus measures since late September, in order to boost its sluggish economy.
China’s central bank has indicated that it plans to lower interest rates from the current 1.5% “at an appropriate time” in 2025, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Traders assess EIA data amid oversupply concerns
{{8849|US crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks saw significant increases as demand softened during the week ending December 27, the reported on Thursday.
The EIA stated that dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week, falling short of analysts’ expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel decrease.
Latest EIA surveys have shown that U.S. oil production remains near record levels, and the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to agree to policies that would focus on ramping up domestic fossil fuel production.
This comes amid worries about potential oversupply driven by anticipated production increases from non-OPEC nations, further underscoring an oversupply scenario.
The International Energy Agency recently said that the oil market will remain adequately supplied, despite a rise in demand forecast for 2025.
(Peter Nurse contributed to this article.)
Commodities
Biden to ban new oil drilling over vast areas of US Atlantic, Pacific waters, Bloomberg News reports
(Reuters) – President Joe Biden is set to ban new offshore oil and gas development across 625 million acres (250 million hectares) of U.S. coastal territory, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
The ban, to be announced on Monday, rules out the sale of drilling rights in stretches of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, said the report, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
Biden is leaving the possibility open for new oil and leasing in the central and western areas of the Gulf of Mexico, which account for around 14% of the nation’s production of these fuels, the report said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside of business hours.
The ban would solidify Biden’s legacy on addressing climate change and his goal to decarbonize the U.S. economy by 2050.
The New York Times (NYSE:) reported that a section of the law Biden’s decision relies on, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, gives a president wide leeway to bar drilling and does not include language that would allow President-elect Donald Trump or other future presidents to revoke the ban.
Biden, Trump and Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, all used the law to ban sales of offshore drilling rights in some coastal areas.
Trump tried in 2017 to reverse Arctic and Atlantic Ocean withdrawals Obama had made at the end of his presidency, but a federal judge ruled in 2019 that the law does not give presidents the legal authority to overturn prior bans.
(Reuters) – Russian rescue workers have cleared more than 86,000 metric tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait following an oil spill in the Black Sea last month, the emergencies ministry said on Saturday.
The oil leaked from two ageing tankers that were hit by a storm on Dec. 15. One sank and the other ran aground.
More than 10,000 people have been working to shovel up viscous, foul-smelling fuel oil from sandy beaches in and around Anapa, a popular summer resort. Environmental groups have reported deaths of dolphins, porpoises and sea birds.
The emergencies ministry said on the Telegram messaging app that oil-tainted soil had been collected in the broader Kuban region in Russia and in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Kyiv in 2014.
The ministry published video footage showing dozens of workers in protective suits loading bags of dirt onto diggers and others skimming dirt off the sand with shovels.
Russia’s transport ministry said this week experts had established that about 2,400 metric tons of oil products had spilled into the sea, a smaller spill than initially feared.
When the disaster struck, state media reported that the stricken tankers, both more than 50-years old, were carrying some 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products in total.
The spill involved heavy M100-grade fuel oil that solidifies at a temperature of 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) and, unlike other oil products, does not float to the surface but sinks to the bottom or remains suspended in the water column.
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