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Current natural gas market news: experts have assessed the consequences of increasing Russian gas supplies to China for Europe

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natural gas market news

All current natural gas market news today is centered around the Russian Federation. Russia is cutting gas supplies to Europe and at the same time increasing them to China. In Brussels, at least internally, they do not mind that Beijing is buying as much natural gas as possible from Moscow. The consulting firm Accenture Plc. says this is good for united Europe because it helps it fight the energy crisis. 

Oil and gas market news: pipeline gas restrains Chinese demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG)

The reason is that Russian natural gas from pipes is holding back demand in China for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which Europeans are now looking for across the world to replace Russian gas, Bloomberg says, citing Accenture director Ohan Kose. Even though the Power of Siberia pipeline exports pipe gas from Russia to China is still a fraction of what Moscow was supplying to Europe until February 24, due to its low price, it is successfully replacing expensive LNG in the Chinese market. Also, new gas pipelines are being built from Russia to China.

“It’s important that Russian gas goes to China,” Kose said last week, “because it reduces China’s demand for LNG and its price.

If you follow global oil and gas market news, you know that China also imports gas through pipelines from Central Asia. Beijing is now trying to buy as much cheap pipeline gas as possible and as little expensive liquefied gas as possible. Because of the pandemic and coronavirus lockdowns and the resulting slowdown of the Chinese economy, Beijing has not yet even entered the spot gas market this year, where, incidentally, it was the main player last year. The appetite for LNG in China, according to forecasts by experts, may remain low not only in August, but also in September.

Current european natural gas market news

At the moment Europe is closely watching the epidemiological situation in the Celestial Empire and the way China is coming out of the blackouts and starts to restore its economy. Economists at Goldman Sachs explained in a research note last week that the less LNG China buys, the more Europe gets. 

Accenture believes that if Russia stopped supplying gas to Europe completely, the price of gas could increase fivefold! Of course, this situation will last until spring. Kose is certain that the average price of gas next year will be lower than this year.

Gas consumption and demand is also being held back by the risk of a global economy sliding into recession. According to Accenture, the risk of a global recession would cut gas demand in the EU by 16% next year. Brussels is now persistently urging EU members to reduce gas consumption by 15% this winter. French energy company Engie SA, for example, reports that French residents have already begun to vigorously conserve electricity and reduce their gas consumption.

“The combination of lower demand in Europe and Asia and the fact that Russian gas has found new markets will lower gas prices in the medium term,” Kose forecasts. This is a positive for gas energy news. If the coming winter is harsher than the previous ones, high gas prices will certainly last longer, but they should decrease in the long run.

Commodities

Oil set for weekly loss on surplus fears despite OPEC+ cut extensions

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By Enes Tunagur

(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Friday as analysts continued to forecast a supply surplus in 2025 despite the OPEC+ decision to postpone planned supply increases and extend deep output cuts to the end of 2026.

futures were down 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.43 per barrel at 1128 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 65 cents, or 1%, to $67.65 per barrel.

For the week, Brent was on track to fall 2%, while WTI was on course for a 0.5% drop.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.

The group, known as OPEC+ and responsible for about half of the world’s oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand – especially in China – and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.

“The outcome of the latest meeting of OPEC+ members surprised us positively … The extension of the production cuts shows the group remains united and is still targeting to keep the oil market in balance,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Pressuring prices on Friday, analysts reiterated expectations of a supply surplus next year, although some of them now view a smaller surplus than before.

Bank of America forecasts increasing oil surpluses to drive Brent to average $65 a barrel in 2025, while expecting oil demand growth to rebound to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the bank said in a note on Friday.

HSBC, meanwhile, now expects a smaller oil market surplus of 0.2 million bpd, from 0.5 million bpd previously, it said in a note.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Crude oil tanker Otis delivers crude oil for Dangote Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria December 9, 2023. REUTERS/Seun Sanni/File Photo

Brent has largely stayed in a tight range of $70-75 per barrel in the past month, as investors weighed weak demand signals in China and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

“The general narrative is that the market is stuck in its rather narrow range. While immediate developments might push it out of this range on the upside briefly, the medium-term view remains rather pessimistic,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

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Commodities

Oil pares some gains after source says OPEC+ to delay output hike

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By Paul Carsten

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices pared some gains on Thursday after a source told Reuters OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output hike until April 2025.

was up 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.55 a barrel at 1237 GMT. It had been at $72.84 before Reuters reported the delay.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 25 cents, 0.4%, and was trading at $68.79 a barrel.

The planned delay comes as OPEC+, made up the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, tries to support prices as it wrestles with weak demand, notably from China, and rising supply outside the producer group.

“It will not make next year’s oil balance tight and supply surplus is still anticipated,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. “This view was mirrored in the gut price reaction.”

There remains the question of how long the delays could last, with this only the latest in a series. OPEC+ was originally due to begin raising output in October as part of a plan to gradually unwind the group’s most recent layer of output curbs of 2.2 million barrels per day.

“They reiterate that these barrels will indeed come back,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. “It’s a limited time frame. This means there is no upside to the oil price in the next couple of years.”

Elsewhere, a larger-than-expected draw in stockpiles last week also provided some support to prices.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An oil pump is seen operating in the Permian Basin near Midland, Texas, U.S. on May 3, 2017. Picture taken May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the U.S. President-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters.

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Commodities

OPEC+ likely to extend oil output cuts to support market- report

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On Thursday, OPEC+ is expected to postpone its planned increase in oil production, which was initially scheduled to commence in January, Reuters reported.

The decision to maintain current output levels aims to provide additional support for the oil market. The group, responsible for about half of the world’s oil supply, had intended to start easing output restrictions through 2025 but is now reconsidering in light of a global demand slowdown and increased production from non-member countries.

The consortium’s plan to unwind output cuts has faced challenges due to these market conditions, which have also exerted downward pressure on oil prices.

Accordingly, an extension of the current output cuts for an additional three months is the most probable outcome of the online meeting. However, there are indications that an even longer extension could be under consideration.

The deliberations within OPEC+ reflect the group’s ongoing efforts to balance oil supply with fluctuating global demand. The decision to delay the increase in output is seen as a measure to stabilize the market, which has been affected by various economic factors.

Market participants are closely monitoring the developments from OPEC+’s meeting, as the group’s decisions have significant implications for global oil supply and pricing. The final outcome of the meeting, including the length of the extension, will be determined by the consensus of the member countries.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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