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Commodities

Does Saudi Arabia control oil prices: preparing for unprecedented oil price hike

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does saudi arabia control oil prices

Riyadh will not be deterred by the fact that traders are treating record price increases as a big risk. Many are wondering if Saudi Arabia controls oil prices. 

Bloomberg expects Saudi Arabia to raise the price of its main crude, Arab Light, for Asian buyers by record levels despite forecasts that the oil market may be slightly depressed in September. Representatives of five refineries surveyed by Bloomberg cite a price at a premium to the region’s main oil brand, Dubai, of $10.8 a barrel. Forecasts also show that given the market’s slump in the first month of fall, a price increase could take demand for additional barrels off the market.

Saudi Arabia traders against shorting oil prices

Global crude oil prices in July showed a month-long decline for the first time since late 2020 as traders tried to put the risks of an incoming U.S. recession, monetary tightening by the central banks of major economies and China’s repeated attempts to beat Covid-19 into the price. Despite the decline, the physical parameters of the oil market remain strong.

A lot of Asian refiners seem to be planning to cut production in September after maxing out refining in the last few months. As previously known, Saudi Arabia raises July crude oil prices to Asia. 

The bullish inertia of Middle Eastern crude will peak for October shipments as early as August. In making that prediction, traders relied precisely on a marked decline in refinery output. In the month since the end of June, the price difference between gasoline and crude in Asia has dropped more than 70%, and 39% for diesel.

Many expected Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices, but in fact we have the opposite situation. The premium for Murban crude from Abu Dhabi with delivery in October is down at least $1 per barrel on the spot market compared to oil with September shipments. Physical cargoes of Murban crude, preferred in Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, with September shipments sold at a premium of more than $10 a barrel to Dubai, the Middle East’s main crude brand, in July.



Commodities

Gold prices flat amid thin year-end trading, strong dollar creates pressure

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Investing.com– Gold prices were slightly in the red on Friday amid thin year-end trading, although they were set to edge higher this week amid a cautious outlook following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

was marginally lower at $2,628.22 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.4% lower to $2,643.05 an ounce by 07:38 ET (12:38 GMT).

Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.

Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.

The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.

Gold under pressure from strong Dollar

The was slightly higher in Asian trade on Friday and hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

Other precious metals were also muted on Friday. were unchanged at $954.50 an ounce, while were steady at $30.380 an ounce.

Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.

At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,950.50 a ton, while February  edged down 0.3% to $4.0945 a pound.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report. 

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Commodities

Oil prices edge higher on China stimulus, lower U.S. inventories forecast

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as a holiday-shortened week led to thin volumes, while traders exercised caution around the year-end while assessing the outlook for the upcoming year.

At 07:28 ET (12:28 GMT),  were slightly up at $73.74 a barrel, and edged higher to $69.71 a barrel.

Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity. 

EIA data awaited after API shows fall in US crude inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is scheduled to release its weekly report later on Friday.

These figures provide insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market, influencing pricing and economic decisions.

Earlier this week, media reports stated that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) data.

“Probably we are moving back up again in anticipation of a crude draw in the U.S.,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Some support for oil might come soon from cold weather supporting demand.”

This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

China stimulus hopes persist

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.

The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report. 

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Commodities

Shell shuts down oil processing unit to investigate leak, Singapore’s port authority says

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(Reuters) -Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at its Pulau Bukom facility to investigate a suspected leak, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) and National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Friday.

The oil company estimates that a few tonnes of refined oil products, along with cooling water discharge used in the refining process, have leaked.

Pulau Bukom, site of Singapore’s first refinery, now houses Shell (LON:)’s only energy and chemicals park in Asia, according to the company’s website.

Shell confirmed in an emailed statement to Reuters that oil sheens were spotted alongside a wharf on Dec. 26, 2024 at Shell Energy and Park Singapore.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of Shell's Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore, July 18, 2024. REUTERS/Caroline Chia/File Photo

The company stated it has taken steps to contain the leak and prevent it from spreading into the sea and has deployed boats alongside the MPA to clean up light oil sheens observed near the leak site.

The MPA said investigations are ongoing, and navigation traffic in the area remains unaffected.

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