Commodities
Dow Jones and S&P 500 are down 0.3-0.5%. Nasdaq is on the weak side
The U.S. stock indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ended Thursday trading lower but well above intraday lows, while the Nasdaq Composite came out with a small plus.
Traders were assessing the prospects of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising the benchmark interest rate at its July meeting, as well as U.S. bank reports for the past quarter.
U.S. Labor Department data published on Wednesday, which showed an increase in inflation in the country to a maximum of nearly 41 years, 9.1%, led investors to revise their forecasts about the pace of the Fed’s rate hike. At first, the rate futures quotes showed that traders were 85% confident in the likelihood of the U.S. Central Bank rate hike by 100 basis points (bps) in July.
However, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that the market may be “getting a little ahead of itself” by expecting a 100bp rate hike. He noted that he still favors a 75-bp rate hike in July, but acknowledged that economic data to be released shortly could change his mind in favor of a sharper hike.
“If this data turns out to be substantially stronger than expected, I might lean toward a larger rate hike in July because it would mean that demand in the economy is not weakening fast enough to contain inflation,” he said.
Following Waller’s statements, the futures market’s estimate of the chances of a rate hike of 100 bps in July dropped to 42%; Market Watch notes. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary value of its consumer confidence index for July. The index fell to a record low of 50 points in June.
The University of Michigan data also includes trends in Americans’ inflation expectations, which last month stood at 5.3 percent for the medium term (next year) and 3.1 percent for the long term (five years). “We’re waiting on this data to see if inflation expectations in the U.S. have strengthened,” notes LPL Financial analyst Quincy Crosby. – If they rise, the Fed will probably discuss a 100-bp rate hike. Or the central bank will have to hike the rate at a 75-bp pace longer than it anticipated.”
Data released Thursday showed an acceleration in U.S. producer price growth in June to 11.3 percent annualized from 10.9 percent a month earlier. The rate of increase in producer prices reached a record 11.6% in March of this year. Negative for the market Thursday were weak financial reports from banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley for the past quarter.
“High inflation, weakening consumer confidence, uncertainty about how high rates will be raised and unprecedented quantitative tightening and its impact on global liquidity are very likely to have a negative impact on the global economy,” said JPMorgan Chief Executive James Dimon. – We’re prepared for whatever happens.”
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 142.62 points (0.46%) to 30630.17 points in trading Thursday.
- Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 11.4 points (0.3%) to 3,790.38 points.
- The Nasdaq Composite rose 3.6 points (0.03%) to 11251.19 points.
The decline in net income at JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, by assets, exceeded analysts’ forecasts. In addition, the financial institution said it was suspending its share buybacks. Morgan Stanley also reported weaker-than-expected quarterly adjusted earnings and revenue. JPMorgan’s shares fell 3.5% in trading on Thursday, while Morgan Stanley’s fell 0.4%.
Conagra Brands, a prepared foods maker, fell 7.3 percent. The company nearly halved its net income in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, and its revenue was worse than market forecasts.
Shares of Cisco Systems Inc. fell 0.9 percent after experts at JPMorgan cut recommendations for the securities of the U.S. network equipment maker to “neutral” from “above market. The bank also lowered its outlook on Cisco shares to $51 from $62.
The value of Tesla Inc. securities rose by 0.5%. The day before, it became known that Andrei Karpaty, director of artificial intelligence and head of the development group for autopilot in cars, Tesla, left the company.
Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. will publish their results for the past quarter on Friday. The consensus forecast by analysts surveyed by FactSet suggests that S&P 500 index companies’ overall earnings rose an average of 4.3% in the past quarter, the slowest pace since late 2020.
Commodities
Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.
inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.
The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.
Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut.
Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.
Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals
The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
The rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.
Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors
Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.
Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories
Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.
At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.
Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.
Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China.
China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices.
China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.
To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.
US crude inventories shrink- API
US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions
Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.
rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.
Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.
US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high
The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook
Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.
Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.
Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.
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