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Dow Jones and S&P 500 are down 0.3-0.5%. Nasdaq is on the weak side

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The U.S. stock indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ended Thursday trading lower but well above intraday lows, while the Nasdaq Composite came out with a small plus.

Traders were assessing the prospects of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising the benchmark interest rate at its July meeting, as well as U.S. bank reports for the past quarter.

U.S. Labor Department data published on Wednesday, which showed an increase in inflation in the country to a maximum of nearly 41 years, 9.1%, led investors to revise their forecasts about the pace of the Fed’s rate hike. At first, the rate futures quotes showed that traders were 85% confident in the likelihood of the U.S. Central Bank rate hike by 100 basis points (bps) in July.

However, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that the market may be “getting a little ahead of itself” by expecting a 100bp rate hike. He noted that he still favors a 75-bp rate hike in July, but acknowledged that economic data to be released shortly could change his mind in favor of a sharper hike. 

“If this data turns out to be substantially stronger than expected, I might lean toward a larger rate hike in July because it would mean that demand in the economy is not weakening fast enough to contain inflation,” he said.

Following Waller’s statements, the futures market’s estimate of the chances of a rate hike of 100 bps in July dropped to 42%; Market Watch notes. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary value of its consumer confidence index for July. The index fell to a record low of 50 points in June. 

The University of Michigan data also includes trends in Americans’ inflation expectations, which last month stood at 5.3 percent for the medium term (next year) and 3.1 percent for the long term (five years). “We’re waiting on this data to see if inflation expectations in the U.S. have strengthened,” notes LPL Financial analyst Quincy Crosby. – If they rise, the Fed will probably discuss a 100-bp rate hike. Or the central bank will have to hike the rate at a 75-bp pace longer than it anticipated.”

Data released Thursday showed an acceleration in U.S. producer price growth in June to 11.3 percent annualized from 10.9 percent a month earlier. The rate of increase in producer prices reached a record 11.6% in March of this year. Negative for the market Thursday were weak financial reports from banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley for the past quarter.

“High inflation, weakening consumer confidence, uncertainty about how high rates will be raised and unprecedented quantitative tightening and its impact on global liquidity are very likely to have a negative impact on the global economy,” said JPMorgan Chief Executive James Dimon. – We’re prepared for whatever happens.”

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 142.62 points (0.46%) to 30630.17 points in trading Thursday.
  • Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 11.4 points (0.3%) to 3,790.38 points.
  • The Nasdaq Composite rose 3.6 points (0.03%) to 11251.19 points.

The decline in net income at JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, by assets, exceeded analysts’ forecasts. In addition, the financial institution said it was suspending its share buybacks. Morgan Stanley also reported weaker-than-expected quarterly adjusted earnings and revenue. JPMorgan’s shares fell 3.5% in trading on Thursday, while Morgan Stanley’s fell 0.4%.

Conagra Brands, a prepared foods maker, fell 7.3 percent. The company nearly halved its net income in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, and its revenue was worse than market forecasts.

Shares of Cisco Systems Inc. fell 0.9 percent after experts at JPMorgan cut recommendations for the securities of the U.S. network equipment maker to “neutral” from “above market. The bank also lowered its outlook on Cisco shares to $51 from $62.

The value of Tesla Inc. securities rose by 0.5%. The day before, it became known that Andrei Karpaty, director of artificial intelligence and head of the development group for autopilot in cars, Tesla, left the company.

Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. will publish their results for the past quarter on Friday. The consensus forecast by analysts surveyed by FactSet suggests that S&P 500 index companies’ overall earnings rose an average of 4.3% in the past quarter, the slowest pace since late 2020. 

Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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