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EU authorities predicted Brent price to fall to $72 a barrel in 2024

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Brent price drop

The European Commission (EC) has predicted that the average price of North Sea Brent crude will fall to $72.1 a barrel in 2024. That’s a 28.4 percent drop from 2022, the European Commission said in a forecast released in mid-May. 

The EC published its previous forecast in November 2022. The new forecasts for the average price per barrel in 2022, 2023 and 2024 have worsened: the Brent price forecast for 2022 is down 1.1% to $100.7 a barrel; for 2023 it’s down another 10.2% to $76.3 a barrel; and for 2024 to $72.1 a barrel, down 7.6% YoY. 

Spot and futures prices for Brent, the EC recalls in its report, rose in early April 2023 after OPEC+ countries announced voluntary cuts in oil production by the end of this year. But oil prices “continue to point to further moderation in the future, with quotes for both 2023 and 2024 slightly below those reached in the winter,” the paper said. The global oil market is subject to significant uncertainty related to Russian exports, the review noted.

The embargo on sea shipments of oil and oil products to the European Union and the ceiling on Russian oil prices have affected the price of Russian raw materials, the EC report said. The authors of the forecast noted that Russia managed to redirect oil exports to China, India and Turkey, but Russian Urals is trading at a discount of $20 per barrel to the benchmark Brent. The European Commission considers the prospects of global demand, including demand in China as mobility recovers, to be one of the key drivers of price trends over the next two years.

The European Commission has lowered its oil price forecast largely due to fears of a recession and a slowdown in China’s economic recovery. Supply shortages are expected by the second half of 2023. If the banking crisis leads to a sharp recession, oil prices could fall below $60 a barrel, but if the global economy manages to transition to growth, oil prices could rise to $90 a barrel or higher.

Earlier, we reported that Oil prices returned to decline after U.S. statistics release.

Commodities

Gold treads water amid Fed uncertainty, copper extends rebound

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Gold prices moved little on Wednesday as markets hunkered down ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, while copper prices extended a rebound from six-month lows.

The yellow metal saw some support this week as weak U.S. economic data pulled down the dollar and spurred some bets that the Fed will lack the headroom to keep raising interest rates.

But this support was limited as the dollar recovered amid uncertainty over the Fed’s next move. While some facets of the U.S. economy appeared to be cooling, inflation and the labor market were still running hot, putting more pressure on the central bank to tighten policy.

Even if the Fed pauses its current rate hike cycle, it is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer – a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Fed Fund futures prices show that markets are pricing in a nearly 82% chance the Fed will hold rates steady next week.

Spot gold was flat at $1,963.51 an ounce, while gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,979.65 an ounce by 20:03 ET (00:03 GMT). Both instruments moved little in the prior session, after recovering from more than two-month lows hit last month.

The yellow metal has seen limited safe haven demand over the past month, even as a string of weak data releases battered appetite for risk-driven assets. But a U.S. and European recession this year may eventually spruce up gold demand.

Economic indicators from other major economies are on tap this week, starting with first quarter GDP data from Australia and Japan. Chinese trade and inflation data is also due this week.

Other precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. Platinum futures rose 0.3%, extending a recovery from near two-month lows, while silver futures rose 0.1%.

Among industrial metals, copper prices continued to push higher after reaching an apparent bottom of six-month lows in May. The red metal was also encouraged by some positive economic data from China.

Copper futures rose 0.2% to $3.7757 a pound, after adding more than 1% in the prior session.

Focus is now squarely on Chinese trade data due later in the day, for more cues on commodity demand in the world’s largest copper importer. Chinese commodity imports had slumped in April as a post-COVID economic recovery ran out of steam, which in turn fueled doubts over strong commodity demand this year.

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Commodities

US House conservatives revolt against leadership, block gas stove bill

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A small group of Republicans in the House of Representatives on Tuesday stopped their leaders’ drive to protect gas-fueled stoves from regulation, raising questions about the party’s ability to advance other legislation this year.

The revolt had nothing to do with the kitchen appliances, stemming instead from lingering bitterness over a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

In a surprise move, roughly a dozen conservatives sided with Democrats in a 220-206 vote that prevented the House from taking up a gas-stove bill backed by Republican leadership.

The effort underscored the ability of a handful of conservatives to challenge the leadership of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who presides over a narrow Republican

The next steps are unclear. McCarthy met with some of the rebels behind closed doors after the failed vote, but the chamber wrapped up business for the day without announcing whether they would try again.

Some state and local governments have begun prohibiting gas-fueled furnaces, water heaters and stoves in new buildings as a way of reducing fossil-fuel emissions contributing to climate change.

The Republican bill, if passed by the House, could have faced resistance in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

One of the conservative House Republicans who voted “no,” Representative Ralph Norman, accused McCarthy of a “bait and switch” in his negotiations to raise the debt ceiling with Democratic President Joe Biden. Norman and other far-right Republicans had pushed for far deeper spending cuts than the $1.3 trillion that were enacted into law.

Others said they were angry over McCarthy’s handling of an unrelated bill designed to roll back new federal restrictions on certain pistols.

“We’re not going to live in the era of the imperial speaker anymore,” said Republican Representative Matt Gaetz.

The House had been scheduled on Tuesday to vote on a bill that would prohibit the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission from declaring gas stoves to be hazardous or otherwise restrict their sale.

Another bill, scheduled for Wednesday, would restrict energy conservation standards and block the Department of Energy from issuing rules that would raise the price of gas stoves or force them off the market.

Throughout this summer McCarthy will be responsible for passing spending bills through the House ahead of the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year.

Failure to do so could lead to the risk of a partial government shutdown, as has happened several times over the past decade.

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Commodities

Saudi crown prince, US Secretary of State discuss bilateral ties

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Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met and discussed bilateral relations, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported early on Wednesday.

They also discussed “aspects of cooperation in various fields and developments in regional and international situations”, the SPA added.

Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on a mission to steady Washington’s relationship with Riyadh after years of deepening disagreements on issues ranging from Iran and regional security to oil prices.

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