Commodities
Exclusive-Brent oil traders use little known rule to reroute US cargoes
By Florence Tan, Alex Lawler and Robert Harvey
LONDON (Reuters) – Big energy merchants trading oil cargoes that form the basis of the Brent benchmark have used a little known rule to reroute U.S. shipments from Europe, in a practice that raises doubts over whether reforms to the crude price marker have succeeded.
Brent, the most significant benchmark across commodity markets, is used to price more than 60% of globally traded crude and underpins oil futures. Its value affects fuel prices paid by consumers and businesses.
The 2023 addition of to the benchmark had the potential to limit the scope for trading plays that can distort Brent prices, analysts said at the time. But the reroutings have renewed concern in the market about how well the benchmark reflects supply and demand.
Platts, a unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last year allowed U.S. WTI Midland crude delivered to Europe to be included in its Brent price assessment, called dated Brent. This was to boost liquidity as supplies from the mature North Sea Brent and other oilfields have dwindled.
But in recent months, some WTI cargoes that traded for delivery to Europe via the Platts system, known as the window, never arrived, at least five trading sources said, declining to be named because they were not authorised to speak publicly. The later rerouting has not been previously reported.
Trading companies that deal in the U.S. oil used a clause in the Platts methodology for all commodities, called bookout, to change destinations from Europe to Asia or to keep oil in the United States. The methodology in which bookouts are noted is publicly available on Platts’ website.
Although allowed under Platts’ rules, the sale and later rerouting of the cargoes can impact prices including that of dated Brent, traders and industry analysts said, because it creates a perception demand in Europe is stronger than it is.
Reuters has not, however, been able to establish any conclusive link between the cargo trading activity and prices over the period.
“The issue is traders watch the delivered trades and count barrels arriving to Europe. Those barrels set dated Brent,” said Adi Imsirovic, a trader, who has published books and papers on Brent and runs consultancy Surrey Clean Energy.
“If you then book out those trades, the barrels – which you think there were plenty of, and which have already set the dated price – suddenly disappear.”
Platts said it had not received any complaints about the practice and it was aware “a small minority of cargoes” changed their sales basis from a delivered cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis to free on board (FOB), which can go anywhere.
“Such contract amendments are typical in many markets,” Joel Hanley of S&P Global Commodity Insights said.
Platts said more market participants have joined its dated Brent process since WTI was added – in a vote of confidence in the reforms.
NO PLAN TO DISCLOSE
Trading firms Trafigura, Gunvor and Vitol are among those that have used bookouts to change the destinations of WTI cargoes traded into dated Brent, the trade sources said.
A Trafigura spokesperson said: “As set out in the Platts methodology and is common across industry participants, we seek to agree requests from our buyers for additional discharge options where market forces dictate re-direction of cargoes.”
Gunvor and Vitol declined to comment.
Platts assesses dated Brent’s price based on the cheapest of five North Sea crudes – Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll – and WTI Midland on the day.
Thomson Reuters (NYSE:) competes with Platts in the provision of news and price assessments about the oil market.
Imsirovic said Platts should be informed if physical Brent trades are booked out because if the original deal set the price, Platts may need to adjust the assessment.
Platts has no plan to make CIF to FOB conversions transparent by publishing them or to retroactively change its assessments if cargoes change destination, Hanley said.
He said mutual agreements post-trade are normal practice and the fair value of the oil delivered into Europe was reflected on the day by the CIF trade.
U.S. regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) declined to comment as did the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), which referred Reuters to the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).
AFM declined to comment, saying this was because Platts’ crude oil benchmark does not fall under the EU Benchmarks Regulation and AFM does not supervise it.
SHIPMENT TO CHINA
In one WTI deal that was booked out, Trafigura on Oct. 2 2023 sold three cargoes for delivery to Rotterdam and later negotiated a destination change to China, trade sources said.
On that day, Forties, Brent and WTI crude’s differentials to dated Brent rose on strong demand, with Forties hitting its highest in over a year according to LSG data. Platts said WTI and Brent were the cheapest grades and helped establish the dated Brent price.
futures dropped by almost 5% and dated Brent as assessed by Platts dropped by 1.8% to $94.555 on Oct. 2.
Other trading companies including Vitol and Gunvor have since bought 700,000-barrel cargoes of WTI on a delivered basis to Europe that later converted to FOB, the sources said.
Reuters could not quantify the exact number involved. Platts said it had seen six instances of cargoes switching from CIF to FOB in 2024 to be combined in a larger ship.
Jorge Montepeque, who developed dated Brent and later left Platts and became a critic of the WTI addition, also said changes of cargo destinations must be disclosed.
“One could say that the bidding by traders for WTI cargoes helped distort the perception of demand in Europe where there was no demand for such cargoes,” he said.
Hanley of Platts disagreed, saying it was not possible to create a perception that demand is higher than it is in pricing terms, because if you bid higher a seller will take up your bid.
Commodities
Oil prices steady; traders digest mixed US inventories, weak China data
Investing.com– Oil prices steadied Thursday as traders digested data showing an unexpected increase in US product inventories, while weak economic data from top importer China weighed.
At 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT), expiring in March gained 0.1% to $76.25 a barrel, while rose 0.1% to $73.37 a barrel.
The crude benchmarks had slumped more than 1% on Wednesday, but trading ranges, and volumes, are likely to be limited throughout Thursday with the US market closed to honor former President Jimmy Carter, ahead of a state funeral later in the session.
China inflation muted in December
Chinese inflation, as measured by the , remained unchanged in December, while the shrank for a 27th consecutive month, data showed on Thursday.
The reading pointed to limited improvement in China’s prolonged disinflationary trend, even as the government doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures yet through late-2024.
China is the world’s biggest oil importer, and has been a key source of anxiety for crude markets. Traders fear that weak economic growth in the country will eat into oil demand.
The country is also facing potential economic headwinds from the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, as Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on Beijing.
US oil product inventories rise sharply
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories grew substantially more than expected in the week to January 3, government data showed on Wednesday.
inventories grew 6.3 million barrels against expectations of 0.5 mb, while grew 6.1 mb on expectations of 0.5 mb.
Overall crude also shrank less than expected, at 0.96 mb, against expectations of 1.8 mb.
The build in product inventories marked an eighth straight week of outsized product builds, and spurred concerns that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling.
While cold weather in the country spurred some demand for heating, it also disrupted holiday travel in several areas.
EIA data also showed that US imports from Canada rose last week to the highest on record, ahead of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump’s plans to levy a 25% tariff on Canadian imports.
Canada has been the top source of U.S. oil imports for many years, and supplied more than half of the total U.S. crude imports in 2023.
Strength in the also weighed on crude prices, as the greenback shot back up to more than two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.
A strong dollar pressures oil demand by making crude more expensive for international buyers.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
Commodities
Trump’s possible tariffs could put downward pressure on oil prices – RBC
Investing.com – President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement sweeping import tariffs during his second term in the White House is potentially the “most bearish” policy development for the energy sector this year, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
Trump, who is set to come to power in less than two weeks, has vowed to impose tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports into the US and 60% on items coming from China. He has also pledged to slap a 25% surcharge on products from Canada and Mexico.
Economists have flagged that the proposal would not only rattle global trade activity, but also threaten to reignite inflationary pressures and spark possible retaliation.
The uncertainty in markets was heightened on Wednesday after CNN reported that Trump is mulling declaring a national economic emergency in order to provide the legal underpinning for the tariffs. Earlier this week, Trump also denied a separate report that his team was mulling scaling back the levies to cover only critical goods.
In a note to clients on Thursday, analysts at RBC led by Helima Croft said that while the ultimate scope of the tariffs remains unclear, the headline duties on China could soften demand in the country and place downward pressure on oil prices. China is the world’s largest crude importer.
Business leaders with significant ties to China may advise Trump to stay away from instituting strict tariffs on the country, Croft predicted.
“We have also heard a view in Washington that President Trump could be amenable to a deal with China if Beijing offered to make large headline purchases of US goods, such as aircraft or even US [liquefied natural gas] imports,” Croft wrote.
“Beijing could also potentially seek to trade a reduction in Iranian crude imports for a tariff reprieve.”
However, Croft flagged that the overall market effect of the tariffs is still “challenging to forecast” because the Trump administration — unlike a prior round of trade tensions in 2018 — will have to weight the impact of the policies with broader macroeconomic worries “still front of mind for many in Washington”.
(Reuters contributed reporting.)
Commodities
Gold prices edge higher; demand boosted by Trump-inspired uncertainty
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher Thursday, continuing the recent gains, as heightened uncertainty over a hawkish Federal Reserve and President-elect Donald Trump’s plan for trade tariffs fueled some safe haven demand.
At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), {68|Spot gold}} rose 0.4% to $2,683.84 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.3% to $2,668.60 an ounce.
Trading activity is likely to be limited Thursday, with US traders on holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter, with a state funeral due later in the session.
Safe haven demand on economic uncertainty
Bullion prices benefited from some safe haven demand this week, as uncertainty over Trump’s trade and immigration policies dented risk appetite.
A CNN report said Trump could declare a national economic emergency to legally justify his plans to impose universal trade tariffs.
Concerns over Trump’s policies also came into focus after the of the Fed’s December meeting showed policymakers expressing some concerns over sticky inflation.
Specifically, Fed officials were growing concerned that Trump’s expansionary and protectionist policies could underpin inflation in the long term.
The minutes also largely reiterated the Fed’s plans to cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025, after the central bank effectively halved its projected rate cuts to two from four in 2025.
Treasury yields shot up after the Fed’s minutes, as did the dollar.
Higher for longer rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets such as metals, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the sector.
Other precious metals were edged higher Thursday. fell 0.1% to $983.85 an ounce, while rose 0.8% to $30.930 an ounce.
Copper rises as weak China inflation fuels stimulus hopes
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $9,093.0 a ton, while March rose 1.2% to $4.3115 a pound.
Chinese were flat in December, while shrank for a 27th consecutive month, indicating little improvement in disinflation.
Inflation remained weak even as Beijing doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures through late-2024.
But Thursday’s inflation data fueled increased bets that Beijing will do more to shore up Chinese growth, especially on the fiscal front.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
Among industrial metals, copper prices firmed as weak inflation data from top importer China spurred bets on more stimulus measures from Beijing.
But metal markets remained under pressure from strength in the dollar, which came back in sight of over two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Fed.
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