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Exclusive-Chile’s Codelco boosts copper output in final dash to meet 2024 target, sources say

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By Fabian Cambero and Daina Beth Solomon

SANTIAGO (Reuters) – Chilean state-run Codelco is making a late dash to rev up its production in a bid to hit 2024 targets, two sources and an internal document show, potentially turning things around after a weak first half of the year.

The world’s top copper producer, which is battling to revive output from a 25-year low, hopes to close the year with some 1.331 million metric tons of the metal, the two company sources said, which would be up 0.5% from last year and at the lower end of its target range.

In an internal memo seen by Reuters, the firm said its October output, already flagged by executives as strong, was 2.9% above target, the most concrete sign yet of its recent performance. Official data will be released in the coming days.

The annual and October figures are previously unreported.

The firm’s official annual target is 1.325-1.352 million tons of copper, with the top-end of the range lowered from 1.39 million tons in July.

Its 2024 plan targeted 116,500 tons in October, an internal document seen previously by Reuters showed. A 2.9% beat would suggest real production close to 120,000 tons.

Codelco declined to comment.

Copper is key for electric vehicles and the global green energy revolution, with rising demand pushing up prices.

LEADERSHIP ‘CONFIDENT’ TO HIT TARGET RANGE

The miner, which is also spearheading a state push into lithium, is battling to revive its copper production, hit by construction mistakes at key mines, accidents and a drop in ore grades, even as global demand for the metal rises.

It faced a challenging start to the year, including delays on the Rajo Inca project at the small Salvador unit and the death of a truck driver at Radomiro Tomic, prompting analysts to flag risks to it hitting annual targets.

The firm, however, has made a major production push in recent months, with executives growing more bullish.

Chairman Maximo Pacheco said on Nov. 7 that October was the best month so far this year and would be ahead of target, without giving details.

One of the company sources said the leadership was “confident” to land within the annual production target range. The person said key mines like El Teniente were ahead of target, while Salvador was behind. The giant Chuquicamata was on track.

A second source confirmed the production numbers and expectations. The final figure will depend on how quickly Codelco can ramp up output in the final stretch of the year.

To be sure, Codelco would have to keep up a furious pace to hit its goals. It would need over 400,000 tons of copper in the fourth quarter, 20% more than the third quarter.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is seen at their headquarters in downtown Santiago, Chile March 29, 2018. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo

In the big picture, even if it succeeds, production is still way off peaks a decade ago, analysts said.

“Whether or not it meets the goal, we can’t lose sight that Codelco is going through a significant crisis,” said Juan Ignacio Guzman, head of Chilean mining consultancy GEM.

Commodities

Copper prices dip over 1% following Federal Reserve’s fewer rate cuts signal

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Investing.com — Copper prices are down more than 1% after the Federal Reserve hinted at fewer rate cuts for the upcoming year.

The shift to a more hawkish stance by the Fed has resulted in an increase in bond yields, a surge in the strength of the dollar to 25-month highs, and a spike in volatility. This shift has also led to a sharp decline in key commodity currencies.

Market participants have expressed concern that there isn’t much on the annual calendar to halt this downward trend. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract has registered a 1.5% decrease, trading at $8,912 a ton.

In addition to the Federal Reserve’s stance, looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainties surrounding China’s domestic demand outlook continue to pressure the market.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Commodities

Gold prices rebound from Fed-driven rout, hawkish comments cloud outlook

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Investing.com– Gold prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, although the central bank’s hawkish stance on future rate cuts clouded the outlook for bullion.

Gold prices had dropped more than 2% overnight after the Fed’s policy meeting indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, as sticky inflation remained a major concern.

 jumped as much as 1.3% to $2,618.11, while  expiring in February dropped 1.2% to $2,620.79 an ounce by 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT). 

Spot gold rebounds, but outlook dim amid slower rate cuts

The Fed reduced by 25 basis points but signaled it will adopt a slower pace for future cuts.

Lower interest rates bode well for gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

However, gold futures fell sharply as the rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. Markets have ruled out chances of a cut in January and now expect just two more cuts in 2025, against their earlier expectations of four.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further reductions depend on progress in curbing persistent inflation, reflecting policymakers’ adjustments to potential economic shifts under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance was aimed at curbing inflation, but it also signals confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. This risk-on sentiment can reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, further dampening bullion’s prospects. 

With fewer cuts expected in 2025, the is expected to strengthen further. The greenback surged to an over two-year high on Wednesday.

Additionally, the maintained its interest rates on Thursday, as policymakers remained cautious over Japan’s economic outlook and the path of inflation.

Among other precious metals,  rose 0.7% to $928.90 an ounce, while slumped 2.7% to $29.922 an ounce.

Copper falls on as dollar hits 2-yr high

Among industrial metals, copper prices extended declines on Thursday after the Fed’s hawkish stance bolstered the dollar. The red metal took limited support from reports of more fiscal spending in top importer China over the coming year.

The  rose 0.1% in Asian trade on Thursday and was at an over two-year high after the Fed meeting.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $8,921.50 a ton, while one-month  were largely unchanged at $4.089 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil slips on demand concerns after Fed signals slower rate cuts

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By Colleen Howe, Trixie Yap and Anna Hirtenstein

(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.

futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.

The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.

Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.

“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.

Chinese refining giant Sinopec (OTC:), meanwhile, expects China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, it said on Thursday.

“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.

Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.

JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo

Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. [EIA/S]

While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.

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