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Factbox-US government shutdown: agriculture data hit

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Factbox-US government shutdown: agriculture data hit
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the U.S. Capitol, where Congress will return Tuesday to deal with a series of spending bills before funding runs out and triggers a partial U.S. government shutdown, in Washington, U.S. September 25, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan E

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The release of commodity market-sensitive reports released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and other government agencies will be suspended if Congress fails to provide the government with funding for the fiscal year starting Sunday.

During shutdowns, nonessential government employees are typically furloughed, or placed on temporary unpaid leave. Workers deemed essential, including those dealing with public safety, food safety, and national security, keep working.

Private exchange operators such as the CME Group (NASDAQ:) are generally not affected. But routine government reports have in the past been delayed until the government reopens.

“Market reporters will pause USDA’s market news reports that help farmers, ranchers, commodity traders, and buyers determine the market value of goods, creating uncertainty in the marketplace with detrimental ripple effects for farmers who need to sell their products,” a USDA spokesperson said.

Below is a schedule of key reports planned for release in October and how they may be affected, depending on how long a shutdown lasts.

Monday, Oct. 2:

Weekly U.S. grain export inspections data, released by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service each Monday at 11 a.m. ET (1500 GMT), will not be published, according to the USDA spokesperson. Inspections reports were released during the 2019 shutdown as some personnel continued to work.

Monthly reports on U.S. grain crushings and fats and oils, including U.S. soy crushings, released by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on the first business day of each month at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), would also be suspended.

A weekly U.S. crop progress report, released by USDA’s NASS each Monday at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), would be suspended, according to the USDA spokesperson. Farmers and traders rely on the report for harvest progress and crop condition data.

Wednesday, Oct. 4:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Friday that a government shutdown would not have any immediate impact on the release schedule for its weekly oil inventory data, which includes figures on production and stocks of corn-based ethanol. The EIA releases its report each Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET/1430 GMT.

Thursday, Oct. 5:

Weekly U.S. export sales data, released by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT), would be suspended. Multiple weeks of export sales data delayed by two previous government shutdowns were later released in single, combined reports once the government reopened.

USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor told reporters on Thursday the export sales report “is not produced while the government is shut down.” Taylor said the report “is a critical tool for market intelligence for our exporters and for our industry in the United States.”

Friday, Oct. 6:

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders reports, which detail the size of positions in options and futures, will not be published if there is a shutdown, a CFTC spokesperson said. When the reports were disrupted during the last shutdown, CFTC backfilled the data over a period of weeks after the government reopened. Released each Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT).

Thursday, Oct. 12:

The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report, set for release by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at noon ET (1600 GMT), would be suspended, according to a spokesperson for USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist. Farmers and traders are counting on the monthly report for an update on the size of the U.S. soy and corn harvests and how much the crops have been affected by late-summer dry weather.

Monthly crop production data, released each month by USDA’s NASS at noon ET(1600 GMT), would be suspended.

Friday, Oct. 20:

Monthly cattle on feed report, released by USDA’s NASS at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), would be suspended, according to a USDA spokesperson. The report gives livestock traders and ranchers an estimate of the number of cattle in feedlots at a time when the U.S. herd is shrinking.

Wednesday, Oct. 25:

Monthly cold storage report, released by USDA’s NASS at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), would be suspended, according to a USDA spokesperson. The report details supplies of everything from frozen meats to orange juice in storage.

Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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