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Fed turns screw, Micron pops

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Fed turns screw, Micron pops
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Emboldened by still-punchy U.S. economic activity, the Federal Reserve is gradually gaining market traction with a campaign to flag two more interest rate rises this year – bolstering the dollar, particularly in Asia.

And after a mixed week for chip stocks, Micron (NASDAQ:) spun positive overnight – with its stock up 4% ahead of Thursday’s open after an earnings update infused with optimism about the artificial intelligence boom.

But as investors hit the half-year mark tomorrow, the tightening credit environment tempered fresh risk-taking.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s relative hawkishness, in a series of comments made in Europe over the past 24 hours, has shunted money market rates higher – with futures now starting to price a one-in-five chance of a second quarter-point rate rise by year-end. Hopes for any rate cut in 2023 are all but gone.

“I wouldn’t take…moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all,” he said, noting “the committee clearly believes that there’s more work to do, that there are more rate hikes that are likely to be appropriate”.

With the big U.S. banks passing their latest series of stress tests overnight – despite big paper bond hits over the past year and regional bank ructions in the Spring – Powell said on Thursday the Fed was ‘very reluctant’ to sound the all clear for banks just yet and further rate rises from here would be at a ‘moderate’ pace.

Two-year Treasury yields crept higher to 4.77% on Thursday after all the news, with the dollar firmer too and futures marginally positive – helped by Micron. The volatility gauge remains subdued at 13.6.

Powell’s relative hawkishness was mostly matched by counterparts at the European Central Bank and Bank of England yesterday. Sweden’s Riksbank was the latest to push ahead with a rate hike on Thursday, and German inflation readouts for June pointed to a worrying re-acceleration of price rises there.

But Western central banks’ doubling down on rate rise plans stands in stark contrast to super-easy stances in Japan and China – with commensurate pressure building on the yen and the yuan against a resurgent dollar as a result, despite local efforts to frustrate dollar moves to 2023 highs this week.

Dollar/yen hit another 7-month high on Thursday.

Elsewhere, fashion retailer H&M jumped 11% to a 16-month high after its second-quarter profit beat forecasts.

And food companies will closely eye news that one of the most common artificial sweeteners is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body.

Events to watch for later on Thursday:

* U.S. final Q1 GDP and related inflation estimates, weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales

* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Madrid, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks in Dublin

* European Union summit in Brussels

* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike (NYSE:), McCormick (NYSE:), Paychex (NASDAQ:)

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Elaine Hardcastle mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: US consumer confidence https://tmsnrt.rs/3PybBqt@reutersMikeD)

Commodities

Oil prices steady; traders digest mixed US inventories, weak China data

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Investing.com– Oil prices steadied Thursday as traders digested data showing an unexpected increase in US product inventories, while weak economic data from top importer China weighed.

At 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT), expiring in March gained 0.1% to $76.25 a barrel, while rose 0.1% to $73.37 a barrel. 

The crude benchmarks had slumped more than 1% on Wednesday, but trading ranges, and volumes, are likely to be limited throughout Thursday with the US market closed to honor former President Jimmy Carter, ahead of a state funeral later in the session. 

China inflation muted in December 

Chinese inflation, as measured by the , remained unchanged in December, while the shrank for a 27th consecutive month, data showed on Thursday.

The reading pointed to limited improvement in China’s prolonged disinflationary trend, even as the government doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures yet through late-2024.

China is the world’s biggest oil importer, and has been a key source of anxiety for crude markets. Traders fear that weak economic growth in the country will eat into oil demand.

The country is also facing potential economic headwinds from the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, as Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on Beijing. 

US oil product inventories rise sharply 

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories grew substantially more than expected in the week to January 3, government data showed on Wednesday.

inventories grew 6.3 million barrels against expectations of 0.5 mb, while grew 6.1 mb on expectations of 0.5 mb. 

Overall crude also shrank less than expected, at 0.96 mb, against expectations of 1.8 mb.

The build in product inventories marked an eighth straight week of outsized product builds, and spurred concerns that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling.

While cold weather in the country spurred some demand for heating, it also disrupted holiday travel in several areas. 

EIA data also showed that US imports from Canada rose last week to the highest on record, ahead of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump’s plans to levy a 25% tariff on Canadian imports.

Canada has been the top source of U.S. oil imports for many years, and supplied more than half of the total U.S. crude imports in 2023.

Strength in the also weighed on crude prices, as the greenback shot back up to more than two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. 

A strong dollar pressures oil demand by making crude more expensive for international buyers.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

 

 

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Trump’s possible tariffs could put downward pressure on oil prices – RBC

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Investing.com – President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement sweeping import tariffs during his second term in the White House is potentially the “most bearish” policy development for the energy sector this year, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

Trump, who is set to come to power in less than two weeks, has vowed to impose tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports into the US and 60% on items coming from China. He has also pledged to slap a 25% surcharge on products from Canada and Mexico.

Economists have flagged that the proposal would not only rattle global trade activity, but also threaten to reignite inflationary pressures and spark possible retaliation.

The uncertainty in markets was heightened on Wednesday after CNN reported that Trump is mulling declaring a national economic emergency in order to provide the legal underpinning for the tariffs. Earlier this week, Trump also denied a separate report that his team was mulling scaling back the levies to cover only critical goods.

In a note to clients on Thursday, analysts at RBC led by Helima Croft said that while the ultimate scope of the tariffs remains unclear, the headline duties on China could soften demand in the country and place downward pressure on oil prices. China is the world’s largest crude importer.

Business leaders with significant ties to China may advise Trump to stay away from instituting strict tariffs on the country, Croft predicted.

“We have also heard a view in Washington that President Trump could be amenable to a deal with China if Beijing offered to make large headline purchases of US goods, such as aircraft or even US [liquefied natural gas] imports,” Croft wrote.

“Beijing could also potentially seek to trade a reduction in Iranian crude imports for a tariff reprieve.”

However, Croft flagged that the overall market effect of the tariffs is still “challenging to forecast” because the Trump administration — unlike a prior round of trade tensions in 2018 — will have to weight the impact of the policies with broader macroeconomic worries “still front of mind for many in Washington”.

(Reuters contributed reporting.)

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Gold prices edge higher; demand boosted by Trump-inspired uncertainty

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher Thursday, continuing the recent gains, as heightened uncertainty over a hawkish Federal Reserve and President-elect Donald Trump’s plan for trade tariffs fueled some safe haven demand.

At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), {68|Spot gold}} rose 0.4% to $2,683.84 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.3% to $2,668.60 an ounce. 

Trading activity is likely to be limited Thursday, with US traders on holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter, with a state funeral due later in the session.

Safe haven demand on economic uncertainty

Bullion prices benefited from some safe haven demand this week, as uncertainty over Trump’s trade and immigration policies dented risk appetite.

A CNN report said Trump could declare a national economic emergency to legally justify his plans to impose universal trade tariffs.

Concerns over Trump’s policies also came into focus after the of the Fed’s December meeting showed policymakers expressing some concerns over sticky inflation.

Specifically, Fed officials were growing concerned that Trump’s expansionary and protectionist policies could underpin inflation in the long term.

The minutes also largely reiterated the Fed’s plans to cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025, after the central bank effectively halved its projected rate cuts to two from four in 2025.

Treasury yields shot up after the Fed’s minutes, as did the dollar.

Higher for longer rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets such as metals, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the sector. 

Other precious metals were edged higher Thursday. fell 0.1% to $983.85 an ounce, while rose 0.8% to $30.930 an ounce. 

Copper rises as weak China inflation fuels stimulus hopes

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $9,093.0 a ton, while March rose 1.2% to $4.3115 a pound.

Chinese were flat in December, while shrank for a 27th consecutive month, indicating little improvement in disinflation.

Inflation remained weak even as Beijing doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures through late-2024.

But Thursday’s inflation data fueled increased bets that Beijing will do more to shore up Chinese growth, especially on the fiscal front.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

 

 

 

Among industrial metals, copper prices firmed as weak inflation data from top importer China spurred bets on more stimulus measures from Beijing. 

But metal markets remained under pressure from strength in the dollar, which came back in sight of over two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Fed. 

 

 

 

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