Commodities

G7 shelves regular Russian oil cap reviews as prices soar – sources

Published

1 year ago

September 6, 2023

G7 shelves regular Russian oil cap reviews as prices soar - sources

By Julia Payne

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The G7 and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, even though most Russian crude is trading above the limit because of a rally in global crude prices.

Russian producers have found ways to sell oil using fewer Western ships and insurance services, making it difficult for the West to enforce the existing price cap because the companies facilitating the trade are outside of their remit.

The Group of Seven (G7) countries along with the European Union and Australia imposed the price cap mechanism on Russian oil last December, followed by a cap on fuel from February. Initially, EU countries agreed to review the price cap every two months and to adjust it if necessary while the G7 would review “as appropriate” including “implementation and adherence.”

The G7 has not reviewed the cap since March, however, and four people familiar with G7 policies said the group had no immediate plans to look into adjusting the scheme.

“There were some talks in June or July to do a review, or at least talk about it, but it never formally happened,” one diplomatic source said.

The sources said that while some EU countries were keen for a review they said that there was little appetite from the United States and G7 members to make changes.

The sidelines of the upcoming U.N. General Assembly later this month could serve as an informal platform for talks on the cap.

The mechanism allows third countries to buy Russian fuel using Western ship insurance if there is proof the purchase does not exceed price limits of $60 per barrel for crude, $45 per barrel of heavy fuel and $100 per barrel of light fuel such as gasoline and diesel.

The idea was spearheaded by Washington to cut Moscow’s revenues amid its war on Ukraine while avoiding market disruptions as a result of an EU ban on Russian oil.

Benchmark are trading at their highest this year at above $90 a barrel, raising the value of global crude, including Russian Urals.

Russia’s finance ministry said the average price on its flagship crude grade Urals has recovered to $74 a barrel on average in August – well above the $60 a barrel cap – and up from an average $56 in the first six months of the year.

Russia was forced to cut exports of oil and products immediately after the price cap imposition as it struggled to find enough ships to transport all of its output.

However, the country has managed to move most of its exports into the hands of domestic or non-Western foreign shippers, which do not require Western insurance coverage.

Reuters calculated that at least 40 middlemen, including companies with no prior record of involvement in the business, handled at least half of Russia’s overall crude and refined products exports between March and June.

While mostly “dark fleet” of tankers with murky ownership was being now used to transport Russian crude, Western ships were still involved in moving products since those were harder to police, an industry source said.

According to LSEG data, Russian crude has been trading above the cap since mid-July and is currently being traded at around $67 a barrel at Russian crude terminals. Russian refined products such as fuel oil and diesel have also surpassed their caps.

A U.S. Treasury official said this week the cap was still effective as it had helped cut Russian revenues. He said the group would stay nimble but added there was no plan for an immediate revision.

Commodities

Oil prices steady; traders digest mixed US inventories, weak China data

Published

3 hours ago

January 9, 2025

Investing.com– Oil prices steadied Thursday as traders digested data showing an unexpected increase in US product inventories, while weak economic data from top importer China weighed.

At 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT), expiring in March gained 0.1% to $76.25 a barrel, while rose 0.1% to $73.37 a barrel.

The crude benchmarks had slumped more than 1% on Wednesday, but trading ranges, and volumes, are likely to be limited throughout Thursday with the US market closed to honor former President Jimmy Carter, ahead of a state funeral later in the session.

China inflation muted in December

Chinese inflation, as measured by the , remained unchanged in December, while the shrank for a 27th consecutive month, data showed on Thursday.

The reading pointed to limited improvement in China’s prolonged disinflationary trend, even as the government doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures yet through late-2024.

China is the world’s biggest oil importer, and has been a key source of anxiety for crude markets. Traders fear that weak economic growth in the country will eat into oil demand.

The country is also facing potential economic headwinds from the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, as Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on Beijing.

US oil product inventories rise sharply

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories grew substantially more than expected in the week to January 3, government data showed on Wednesday.

inventories grew 6.3 million barrels against expectations of 0.5 mb, while grew 6.1 mb on expectations of 0.5 mb.

Overall crude also shrank less than expected, at 0.96 mb, against expectations of 1.8 mb.

The build in product inventories marked an eighth straight week of outsized product builds, and spurred concerns that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling.

While cold weather in the country spurred some demand for heating, it also disrupted holiday travel in several areas.

EIA data also showed that US imports from Canada rose last week to the highest on record, ahead of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump’s plans to levy a 25% tariff on Canadian imports.

Canada has been the top source of U.S. oil imports for many years, and supplied more than half of the total U.S. crude imports in 2023.

Strength in the also weighed on crude prices, as the greenback shot back up to more than two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

A strong dollar pressures oil demand by making crude more expensive for international buyers.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Commodities

Trump’s possible tariffs could put downward pressure on oil prices – RBC

Published

3 hours ago

January 9, 2025

Investing.com – President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement sweeping import tariffs during his second term in the White House is potentially the “most bearish” policy development for the energy sector this year, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

Trump, who is set to come to power in less than two weeks, has vowed to impose tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports into the US and 60% on items coming from China. He has also pledged to slap a 25% surcharge on products from Canada and Mexico.

Economists have flagged that the proposal would not only rattle global trade activity, but also threaten to reignite inflationary pressures and spark possible retaliation.

The uncertainty in markets was heightened on Wednesday after CNN reported that Trump is mulling declaring a national economic emergency in order to provide the legal underpinning for the tariffs. Earlier this week, Trump also denied a separate report that his team was mulling scaling back the levies to cover only critical goods.

In a note to clients on Thursday, analysts at RBC led by Helima Croft said that while the ultimate scope of the tariffs remains unclear, the headline duties on China could soften demand in the country and place downward pressure on oil prices. China is the world’s largest crude importer.

Business leaders with significant ties to China may advise Trump to stay away from instituting strict tariffs on the country, Croft predicted.

“We have also heard a view in Washington that President Trump could be amenable to a deal with China if Beijing offered to make large headline purchases of US goods, such as aircraft or even US [liquefied natural gas] imports,” Croft wrote.

“Beijing could also potentially seek to trade a reduction in Iranian crude imports for a tariff reprieve.”

However, Croft flagged that the overall market effect of the tariffs is still “challenging to forecast” because the Trump administration — unlike a prior round of trade tensions in 2018 — will have to weight the impact of the policies with broader macroeconomic worries “still front of mind for many in Washington”.

(Reuters contributed reporting.)

Commodities

Gold prices edge higher; demand boosted by Trump-inspired uncertainty

Published

3 hours ago

January 9, 2025

Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher Thursday, continuing the recent gains, as heightened uncertainty over a hawkish Federal Reserve and President-elect Donald Trump’s plan for trade tariffs fueled some safe haven demand.

At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), {68|Spot gold}} rose 0.4% to $2,683.84 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.3% to $2,668.60 an ounce.

Trading activity is likely to be limited Thursday, with US traders on holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter, with a state funeral due later in the session.

Safe haven demand on economic uncertainty

Bullion prices benefited from some safe haven demand this week, as uncertainty over Trump’s trade and immigration policies dented risk appetite.

A CNN report said Trump could declare a national economic emergency to legally justify his plans to impose universal trade tariffs.

Concerns over Trump’s policies also came into focus after the of the Fed’s December meeting showed policymakers expressing some concerns over sticky inflation.

Specifically, Fed officials were growing concerned that Trump’s expansionary and protectionist policies could underpin inflation in the long term.

The minutes also largely reiterated the Fed’s plans to cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025, after the central bank effectively halved its projected rate cuts to two from four in 2025.

Treasury yields shot up after the Fed’s minutes, as did the dollar.

Higher for longer rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets such as metals, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the sector.

Other precious metals were edged higher Thursday. fell 0.1% to $983.85 an ounce, while rose 0.8% to $30.930 an ounce.

Copper rises as weak China inflation fuels stimulus hopes

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $9,093.0 a ton, while March rose 1.2% to $4.3115 a pound.

Chinese were flat in December, while shrank for a 27th consecutive month, indicating little improvement in disinflation.

Inflation remained weak even as Beijing doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures through late-2024.

But Thursday’s inflation data fueled increased bets that Beijing will do more to shore up Chinese growth, especially on the fiscal front.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Among industrial metals, copper prices firmed as weak inflation data from top importer China spurred bets on more stimulus measures from Beijing.

But metal markets remained under pressure from strength in the dollar, which came back in sight of over two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Fed.