Commodities
Gold futures analysis: goes up in price after statistics from the U.S.
There is an interesting situation on the gold futures chart today. Gold prices are rising Thursday evening, investors paid attention to data on a decline in U.S. GDP for the second quarter in a row, according to trading data.
We bring to your attention gold futures analysis. The price of August gold futures on the New York Comex Exchange rose $32.6, or 1.9%, to $1,751.7 a troy ounce. September silver futures went up 6.44% to $19,797 an ounce.
Traders paid attention to the unexpected data on the U.S. economy’s decline in the second quarter. According to the Department of Commerce, according to the first estimate, the index fell by 0.9% on an annualized basis (if GDP had been growing at the same rate for four straight quarters) after a 1.6% decline in the first quarter, though a 0.5% growth was expected. Such statistics increased fears of a possible recession, which supported the demand for traditionally more reliable gold.
Gold futures august 2022 have good forecasts. Markets continue to pay attention to the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) meeting. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve expectedly raised its key rate by 75 basis points, to 2.25-2.5% per annum. The regulator noted that a further increase in the target rate range would be appropriate.
At the same time, investors paid attention to the comments of the Head of The Regulator, Jerome Powell, on the results of the meeting. Powell noted that the Fed’s rate decisions would depend on incoming economic data, which strengthened markets’ expectations for a weaker hike in September.
“Because of Powell’s comments, we can expect the Fed to start to turn toward slower hikes,” MarketWatch quoted TDSecurities Head of Commodity Strategy Daniel Ghali as saying. The regulator raised rates by 25 basis points in March, 50 basis points in May and 75 basis points in June and July.
A trader who has a position in gold futures today has a chance to earn good money, if he correctly analyzes the market situation.
Commodities
Oil prices settle higher after larger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles
Investing.com– Oil prices settled higher Friday after data showed weekly inventories fell more than expected.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (19:30 GMT), rose 1.2% to $74.17 a barrel, and settled higher at $70.60 a barrel.
Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity.
US crude inventories fall more than expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, reported Friday crude stockpiles for week ended Dec. 20 fell 4.2M barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of just 700,000 barrels.
This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Gasoline inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 1.7 million barrels.
China stimulus hopes persist
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.
The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices fall as Treasury yields rise
Investing.com– Gold prices fell Friday, ending the week lower as Treasury yields rose following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt
was 0.7 at $2,614.40 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.9% lower to $2,630.36 an ounce.
Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.
Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.
The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.
Gold slips amid pressure from rising yields
The was slightly lower on Friday, pairing overnight gains, though continued to hover near a two-year high it touched last week. Still, Treasury yields were sharply higher, pressuring the yellow metal.
A weaker dollar often boosts on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more attractive to buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
Other precious metals were lower on Friday. were down 3.6% to $919.90 an ounce, while were down 1.5% $29.935 an ounce.
Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.
At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,995.00 a ton, while February edged down 0.1% to $4.1242 a pound.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Oil settles up over 1% on large draw from US crude stocks
By Shariq Khan
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices settled more than 1% higher on Friday and recorded a weekly gain in low trading volume ahead of year-end, buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from inventories last week.
futures rose 91 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $74.17 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $70.60 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, both Brent and WTI crude gained about 1.4%.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday. [EIA/S]
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9 million-barrel drawdown, whereas figures from the American Petroleum Institute released earlier in the week estimated a 3.2 million-barrel draw, according to market sources. [API/S]
Optimism over Chinese economic growth has also sparked hopes of higher demand next year from the top oil importing nation.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue special treasury bonds worth 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) next year, sources told Reuters this week, as Beijing acts to revive the sluggish economy.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which had become an afterthought in energy markets due to stagnant global oil demand, seems to be returning to the forefront after numerous events this week that could impact supplies next year, fuel distributor TACenergy’s trading desk wrote on Friday.
NATO said on Friday it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea, a day after Finland seized a ship carrying Russian oil on suspicion of causing internet and power cable outages. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale prices rose amid fading hopes for a new deal to transit Russian gas through Ukraine.
Tensions have flared in the Middle East too, after Israel raided a north Gaza hospital on Friday and struck targets linked to the Houthi movement in Yemen on Thursday, but these events are unlikely to affect oil prices much heading into next year, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.
Instead, the largest risk in the Middle East is from sanctions enforcement that will likely occur with the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S., he said.
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