Commodities
Gold prices muted before inflation data, copper sinks on Zambia discovery
Investing.com– Gold prices moved little in holiday-thinned Asian trade on Monday, with the yellow metal keeping to a trading range established over the past week as traders sought more cues from upcoming U.S. inflation data.
Among industrial metals, copper prices hit a near three-month low after KoBold Metals- a startup backed by Microsoft (NASDAQ:) founder Bill Gates, found a large copper deposit in Zambia that could form a major copper mine.
Waning expectations of early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw gold fall back into a $2,000 to $2,050 trading range in February, as markets began steadily pricing out chances of a rate cut in March and May.
A dearth of direct cues over the past week also gave gold few cues, with traders now looking to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data as the next big signal.
fell 0.1% to $2,023.48 an ounce, while expiring in April fell 0.1% to $2,037.20 an ounce by 00:07 ET (05:07 GMT). Trading volumes in the two were muted on account of market holidays in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan.
CPI data, Fed signals in focus
Gold is expected to see little action ahead of U.S. on Tuesday. While the reading is expected to show that inflation eased further in January, price pressures are still expected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, giving the central bank more impetus to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Along with the inflation data, a sting of Fed officials, including , and are on tap this week.
Fed officials are expected to reiterate recent comments that the central bank is in no hurry to begin trimming interest rates. This notion had sparked steep losses in gold earlier in February, given that higher rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.
The also remained in sight of a recent three-month high, keeping gold prices under pressure.
Still, gold managed to hold above the $2,000 an ounce support, although analysts cautioned that the level may be tested in the coming days.
Copper sinks on discovery of large deposit in Zambia
Copper prices fell on Monday, extending losses from the prior session on fears of a potential increase in global supplies.
expiring in March fell 0.4% to $3.6727 a pound- their weakest level since mid-November.
KoBold Metals, a start-up backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, said it had discovered a huge copper deposit in Zambia, which could potentially form one of the largest mines in the world.
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema said that the deposit- found in the Mingomba Project- could produce between 500 to 600,000 metric tons of copper when operational. In comparison, Chile’s Escondida Mine- which is considered the world’s largest copper mine by production, produced about 1 million tons of copper in 2022.
The discovery points to a potential increase in copper supplies over the coming years- heralding more pressure on prices of the red metal, which usually benefit from tighter market conditions.
Copper was already nursing steep losses so far in 2024 amid persistent concerns over slowing demand in top importer China.
By Robert Harvey
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil futures jumped by almost 1% on Monday as a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast helped oil prices to recover some of the previous week’s heavy losses.
rose 58 cents, or 0.82%, to $71.64 a barrel by 1125 GMT while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.28.
Prices of Brent crude had fallen in each of the past six trading sessions, retreating by more than 11%, or nearly $9 a barrel, to register the lowest closing price since December 2021 on Friday.
Analysts said Monday’s rebound was partly in response to a potential hurricane near the U.S. Gulf Coast while Libyan supply disruption has also been supporting prices.
Libya’s NOC late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity.
“A small recovery in prices is under way this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do,” said PVM analyst John Evans.
The OPEC+ oil producer group last week agreed to delay a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day for October by two months in reaction to tumbling crude prices
Trading houses Gunvor and Trafigura expect oil prices to range between $60 and $70 a barrel because of sluggish Chinese demand and persistent oversupply, executives told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Monday.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter to $75 a barrel from $80, adding that prices are likely to remain around that level unless demand weakens further.
The weakness in Chinese demand is driven by an economic slowdown and growing shift towards lower-carbon fuels, said speakers at the APPEC energy industry event.
Refining margins in Asia have slipped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020.
A U.S. jobs report on Friday showed that August non-farm payrolls increased by less than market watchers had expected.
A decline in the jobless rate could slow the pace at which the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, analysts said. Lower interest rates typically increase oil demand by spurring economic growth.
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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