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Commodities

Gold’s run to record high may crimp demand: Russell

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By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia (Reuters) -Gold has been the standout commodity performer so far this year, gaining 18.5% and posting a record high.

But the precious metal may become a victim of its own success, with consumer buying at risk from the surge in prices.

ended at $2,443.29 an ounce on Aug. 2, and it has largely held onto the gains made this year, which saw a sustained rally to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on July 17.

The World Gold Council released its quarterly report last week and the industry group reported total demand of 1,258.2 metric tons in the second quarter, the highest on record for a second quarter and some 4% above the same period in 2023.

But the breakdown of the demand figures shows some trends that may point to a slowdown in coming quarters.

The biggest gain in demand was from what the Council called the Over The Counter (OTC) market, which largely means buying from institutional investors, high net-worth individuals and family offices.

OTC demand was 329.2 tons in the second quarter, up 53% from the same quarter in 2023 and a massive jump of 385% from the first quarter.

The Council attributed the surge in OTC appetite to “portfolio diversification,” which leads to the question as to how sustainable this demand is, given that once these investors have reached the point where they feel they have sufficient gold in their asset mix, they will likely ease back on purchases.

The report also showed a strong decline in jewellery consumption, which dropped to 390.6 tons in the second quarter, down 19% from the same period in 2023.

Joining jewellery in the losing column was official coins, where demand dropped 38% to 52.7 tons in the second quarter.

Both of these signal that consumers may be starting to pull back on purchases because of the strong gain in prices.

CHINA, INDIA

Of particular concern is jewellery demand in China and India, the two largest buyers of physical gold, which together account for almost half the market.

China saw jewellery demand slump 35% in the second quarter to 86.3 tons, while India recorded a 17% fall to 106.5 tons, according to the Council report.

A further sign that China’s appetite for gold may be waning somewhat was the 18% drop in net imports via Hong Kong in June, with official data showing imports of 21.92 tons, down from 26.72 tons in May.

China doesn’t disclose gold import volumes, making the Hong Kong data a key proxy for demand in the world’s top consumer.

India’s consumer demand is likely to get a boost in the current quarter after the government cut the import duty to 6% from 15%, but this is also likely to prove to be a one-time sugar hit to demand, rather than a sustainable shift to higher demand.

Higher prices also likely weighed on flows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), with the Council figures showing a net drop of 7.2 tons in the second quarter, which followed a decline of 113 tons in the first.

Central bank buying also eased in the second quarter, coming in at 183.4 tons, down from the 299.9 tons in the first, although up 6% from the 173.6 tons in the second quarter of 2023.

Overall, there are enough factors to suggest that the rise to a record high for gold is starting to crimp some of the more price-sensitive demand.

But it’s not all bad news, with investor interest likely to be maintained by the ongoing expectation that monetary policy in several key countries is likely to be eased, with a particular focus on likely interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

High geopolitical tensions, with ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as political risk surrounding what is shaping to be a tight U.S. presidential election are also likely to keep interest in gold high.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

The combination of bearish and bullish factors for the yellow metal may end up having the effect of keeping the price in a relatively narrow range for the rest of the year.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Commodities

Factbox-How investors buy gold and what drives the market

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(Reuters) – Gold hit a record high above $2,600 per ounce on Friday, as the prospect of more U.S. interest rate cuts and global geo-political uncertainty boosted its appeal.

Bullion has risen more than 26% so far this year, and as market bulls lock in further gains, another milestone of $3,000 per ounce is in focus.

Here are the different avenues for investing in gold:

SPOT MARKET

Large buyers and institutional investors usually buy gold from big banks. Prices in the spot market are determined by real-time supply and demand dynamics.

London is the most influential hub for the market, largely because of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The LBMA sets standards for gold trading and provides a framework for the OTC (over-the-counter) market, facilitating trades among banks, dealers, and institutions.

China, India, the Middle East and the United States are other major gold trading centres.

FUTURES MARKET

Investors can also get exposure to gold via futures exchanges, where people buy or sell a particular commodity at a fixed price on a particular date in future.

COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc), a part of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), is the largest market in terms of trading volumes.

Shanghai Futures Exchange, China’s leading commodities exchange, also offers gold futures contracts. The Tokyo Commodity exchange, popularly known as TOCOM, is another big player in the Asian gold market.

EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) issue securities backed by physical metal and allow people to gain exposure to the underlying gold prices without taking delivery of the metal itself. [GOL/ETF]

ETFs have become a major category of investment demand for the precious metal.

Global physically backed gold ETFs attracted a fourth consecutive month of inflows in August after North American and Europe-listed funds increased holdings, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.

BARS AND COINS

Retail consumers can buy gold from metals traders selling bars and coins in an outlet or online. Both gold bars and coins are effective means of investing in physical gold.

DRIVERS:

INVESTORS AND MARKET SENTIMENT

Rising interest from investment funds in recent years has been a major factor behind bullion’s price moves.

Sentiment driven by market trends, news, and global events can also lead to speculative buying or selling of gold.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

Gold is a popular hedge against currency market volatility. It has traditionally moved in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar as weakness in the U.S. unit makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and vice versa.

MONETARY POLICIES AND POLITICAL TENSIONS

The precious metal is widely considered a “safe haven”, bought during uncertain times in a flight to quality.

Major geopolitical events, such as extended conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have added to uncertainties for global investors and burnished gold’s appeal.

Policy decisions from global central banks also influence gold’s trajectory. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, since it pays no interest.

Gold’s latest rally was triggered after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with an outsized half-percentage-point cut on Wednesday.

CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES

Central banks hold gold as part of their reserves. Buying or selling of the metal by the banks can influence prices.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Central bank demand has been robust in recent years because of ongoing macroeconomic and political uncertainty, analysts have said.

More central banks plan to add to their gold reserves within a year despite high prices for the precious metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its annual survey in June.

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Commodities

Oil prices drift lower, but set for weekly gains after hefty Fed cut

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Investing.com– Oil prices retreated Friday, but were still headed for a weekly gain as a bumper U.S. interest rate cut helped quell some fears of slowing demand. 

At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT),  fell 0.6% to $74.47 a barrel, while dropped 0.5% to $70.79 a barrel. 

Oil heads for weekly gains on rate cut cheer 

Crude prices have staged a strong recovery from near three-year lows hit earlier in September, with a bulk of their rebound coming this week as the dollar retreated on a by the Federal Reserve.

was trading up about 3.95% this week, while WTI futures were up 4.4%. 

Increased tensions in the Middle East also aided crude, after Israel allegedly exploded pagers and walkie talkies belonging to Hezbollah members, sparking vows of retaliation. Fighting in and around Gaza also continued. 

A softer aided crude prices after the Fed cut interest rates by the top end of market expectations and announced an easing cycle, which traders bet will help spur economic growth in the coming quarters.

Lower rates usually bode well for economic activity, which in turn is expected to buoy crude demand. 

China demand concerns persist 

But China remained a key point of contention for crude markets, as economic readings from the world’s biggest oil importer showed little signs of improvement. 

The People’s Bank of China kept unchanged on Friday, despite mounting calls on Beijing to unlock more stimulus for the economy.

Data released earlier in September showed Chinese refinery output slowed for a fifth straight month in August, while the country’s oil imports also remained mostly weak. 

Concerns over China dragged oil prices to a near three-year low earlier this month, and have limited any major recovery in crude.

“China has obviously been the key concern when it comes to demand, but there have also been reports of refiners in Europe cutting run rates due to poor margins,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Oil prices set to end week higher after US rate cut

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices eased on Friday, but were on track to register gains for a second straight week following a large cut in U.S. interest rates and declining global stockpiles.

Brent futures were down 50 cents, or 0.67%, at $74.38 a barrel at 1004 GMT while U.S. WTI crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.65%, at $71.47.

Still, both benchmarks were up 3.7% and 4% respectively on the week.

Prices have been recovering after Brent fell below $69 for the first time in nearly three years on Sept. 10.

“U.S. interest cuts have supported risk sentiment, weakened the dollar and supported crude this week,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“However, it takes time until rate cuts support economic activity and oil demand growth,” he added, regarding crude’s more muted performance so far on Friday.

Prices rose more than 1% on Thursday following the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.

Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand, but some also see it as a sign of a weak U.S. labour market.

The Fed also projected a further half-point rate cut by year-end, a full point next year and a half-point trim in 2026.

“Easing monetary policy helped reinforce expectations that the U.S. economy will avoid a downturn,” ANZ Research analysts said.

Also supporting prices were a decline in inventories, which fell to a one-year low last week. [EIA/S]

A counter-seasonal oil market deficit of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) will support prices in the $70 to $75 a barrel range during the next quarter, Citi analysts said on Thursday, but added prices could plunge in 2025.

Crude prices were also being supported by rising tensions in the Middle East. Walkie-talkies used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exploded on Wednesday following similar explosions of pagers the previous day.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, near Iraan, Texas, U.S., March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Security sources have said the Israeli spy agency Mossad was responsible, but Israeli officials have not commented on the attacks.

China’s slowing economy also weighed on market sentiment, with refinery output in China slowing for a fifth month in August and industrial output growth hitting a five-month low.

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