Commodities
IEA raises 2025 oil demand forecast on China stimulus

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand projections upward for 2025, attributing the increase to the economic stimulus measures in China. The Paris-based organization now expects global oil demand to expand by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 990,000 barrels per day.
Conversely, the demand forecast for this year has been reduced to 840,000 barrels per day from the earlier projection of 921,000 barrels per day. This downward revision is primarily due to lower-than-expected oil deliveries in China, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.
The updated demand growth figures for both this year and 2025 are significantly lower than the growth experienced last year, which saw an increase of more than 2 million barrels per day. The IEA’s report reflects a weaker macroeconomic environment and changes in oil consumption patterns.
Despite the upward revision for 2025, the IEA’s projections are still markedly below those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which forecasts demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day this year and 1.45 million barrels per day in the following year.
The IEA expressed concerns about the global oil demand in 2025, noting the sudden stagnation of Chinese oil demand growth this year, along with modest increases in other emerging and developing economies. In October, Chinese oil demand remained unchanged from the previous year and showed a decline from the month before.
However, the IEA anticipates that China, the world’s leading crude importer, will see demand growth of 140,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 220,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is an increase from the earlier estimate of 190,000 barrels per day.
Global oil demand is estimated to average 102.8 million barrels per day this year and reach 103.9 million barrels per day in the next year. Despite this, the IEA’s current market analysis indicates a supply surplus of 950,000 barrels per day for the next year. This surplus could grow to 1.4 million barrels per day if OPEC and its allies start to phase out voluntary production cuts at the end of March as scheduled.
In terms of supply, the IEA reported that global oil output increased by 130,000 barrels per day in November, driven by a recovery in production from Libya and Kazakhstan. The average total supply is projected at 102.9 million barrels per day for this year and 104.8 million barrels per day for the next.
Last week, OPEC and its partners extended their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of March, with plans to gradually reduce these cuts over an 18-month period.
The IEA’s report, released on Thursday, comes amid concerns over weakening demand trends in China and the possibility of an oversupplied market next year. Nevertheless, recent events such as turmoil in the Middle East following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and China’s commitment to enhance economic stimulus have offered some support to oil prices this week.
is currently trading at approximately $73 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, hovers around $70 per barrel.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Commodities
Copper prices dip over 1% following Federal Reserve’s fewer rate cuts signal

Investing.com — Copper prices are down more than 1% after the Federal Reserve hinted at fewer rate cuts for the upcoming year.
The shift to a more hawkish stance by the Fed has resulted in an increase in bond yields, a surge in the strength of the dollar to 25-month highs, and a spike in volatility. This shift has also led to a sharp decline in key commodity currencies.
Market participants have expressed concern that there isn’t much on the annual calendar to halt this downward trend. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract has registered a 1.5% decrease, trading at $8,912 a ton.
In addition to the Federal Reserve’s stance, looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainties surrounding China’s domestic demand outlook continue to pressure the market.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Commodities
Gold prices rebound from Fed-driven rout, hawkish comments cloud outlook

Investing.com– Gold prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, although the central bank’s hawkish stance on future rate cuts clouded the outlook for bullion.
Gold prices had dropped more than 2% overnight after the Fed’s policy meeting indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, as sticky inflation remained a major concern.
jumped as much as 1.3% to $2,618.11, while expiring in February dropped 1.2% to $2,620.79 an ounce by 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT).
Spot gold rebounds, but outlook dim amid slower rate cuts
The Fed reduced by 25 basis points but signaled it will adopt a slower pace for future cuts.
Lower interest rates bode well for gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
However, gold futures fell sharply as the rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. Markets have ruled out chances of a cut in January and now expect just two more cuts in 2025, against their earlier expectations of four.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further reductions depend on progress in curbing persistent inflation, reflecting policymakers’ adjustments to potential economic shifts under the incoming Donald Trump administration.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance was aimed at curbing inflation, but it also signals confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. This risk-on sentiment can reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, further dampening bullion’s prospects.
With fewer cuts expected in 2025, the is expected to strengthen further. The greenback surged to an over two-year high on Wednesday.
Additionally, the maintained its interest rates on Thursday, as policymakers remained cautious over Japan’s economic outlook and the path of inflation.
Among other precious metals, rose 0.7% to $928.90 an ounce, while slumped 2.7% to $29.922 an ounce.
Copper falls on as dollar hits 2-yr high
Among industrial metals, copper prices extended declines on Thursday after the Fed’s hawkish stance bolstered the dollar. The red metal took limited support from reports of more fiscal spending in top importer China over the coming year.
The rose 0.1% in Asian trade on Thursday and was at an over two-year high after the Fed meeting.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $8,921.50 a ton, while one-month were largely unchanged at $4.089 a pound.
Commodities
Oil slips on demand concerns after Fed signals slower rate cuts

By Colleen Howe, Trixie Yap and Anna Hirtenstein
(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.
futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.
The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.
Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.
“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.
Chinese refining giant Sinopec (OTC:), meanwhile, expects China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, it said on Thursday.
“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.
Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.
JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. [EIA/S]
While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.
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