Connect with us
  • tg

Commodities

IEA trims 2024 oil demand growth forecast, widening gap with OPEC view

letizo News

Published

on

By Natalie Grover

LONDON (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Wednesday, further expanding the chasm between it and oil producer group OPEC regarding the outlook for global oil demand this year.

The Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday stuck by its expectation that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024.

The sizable split between the two forecasts is partly due to different views on the pace of the global transition to cleaner fuels.

The IEA in its monthly oil report said its lower 2024 oil demand forecast was linked to poor industrial activity and a mild winter sapping gasoil consumption, particularly in Europe where a declining share of diesel cars was already undercutting consumption.

“Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction,” the IEA said.

The IEA’s 2025 oil growth forecast of 1.2 million bpd – slightly higher than its previous estimate – is now marginally higher than its projection for this year.

OPEC has estimated oil demand growth of 1.85 million bpd for next year.

Commodities

Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand. 

At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.

U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report

The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.

Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.

Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.

U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions 

Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia. 

The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

Continue Reading

Commodities

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December

letizo News

Published

on

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.

OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.

The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]

Continue Reading

Commodities

Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.

While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.

“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.

They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.

“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.

OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.

Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.

The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.

“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved