Commodities
In arid New Mexico, rural towns eye treated oil wastewater as a solution to drought
By Valerie Volcovici
JAL, New Mexico (Reuters) – Flying over the desert landscape of southeastern New Mexico in a four-seat helicopter, Stephen Aldridge could count around a dozen man-made lagoons brimming with toxic wastewater glistening between drill rigs and pumpjacks.
While it is a growing hazardous waste problem from the region’s booming drilling industry, the mayor of the tiny town of Jal – nestled near the border with Texas in the heart of U.S. oil country – viewed the sweeping scene as an opportunity: a source of water in the second-biggest oil producing state suffering from worsening drought.
“Our future is going to depend on the future of that produced water,” he said.
Aldridge is among a growing group of New Mexico politicians who want the state to develop regulations allowing for the millions of gallons of so-called produced water gushing up daily alongside the Permian basin’s prolific oil and gas to be treated and used, instead of discarded, and who are encouraging companies to figure out how to make it happen cheaply, safely and at scale.
In 2022, the oil and gas industry in New Mexico produced enough toxic fracking wastewater to cover 266,000 acres (107,650 hectares) of land a foot (31 cm) deep. While the state’s drillers reuse over 85% of their produced water in new oil and gas operations, the rest is pumped underground.
With injection wells filling up, however, New Mexico has begun restricting deep-underground disposal, which has triggered earthquakes. The state is now expected to export over 3 million barrels of that water per day by the end of 2024 – a strange dynamic in a water-scarce state.
Around 10 wastewater treatment firms in New Mexico are taking up the challenge under a state-supported pilot program that has so far spurred projects to grow crops like hemp and cotton and irrigate rangeland forage grasses.
While completed pilots have shown the technology works, it is currently too expensive for widespread adoption.
The companies and their backers also face a tough political battle. The debate over how this water should be used is one of the most divisive political questions facing New Mexico, with opponents mainly worried about the unintended human health consequences and subsidizing the oil industry’s waste issue.
New Mexico’s Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham introduced legislation late last year that would have created a strategic water reserve out of treated produced water. The bill was defeated by state lawmakers but will be brought up again in the next legislative session in January.
Neighboring Texas is also dealing with growing problems around wastewater disposal, including an epidemic of exploding orphan wells as subsurface pressure rises, raising worries about a potential crackdown there too. The Permian basin, which straddles Texas and New Mexico, is the top U.S. oilfield.
“It’s getting close to this point of criticality,” said Rob Bruant with energy consultancy B3.
Other states such as Colorado and California already use treated produced water in small amounts for agriculture. But New Mexico’s situation is unique because the volumes are overwhelming and the water itself needs much more intensive treatment because it is unusually briny – three times saltier than the Pacific.
CRYSTAL CLEAR FISH TANKS
Aldridge stands out in dusty New Mexico, with shoulder-length white hair and a bushy beard, often wearing bright West African tunics.
His chopper tour in late-July was part of a site visit to one of the state’s wastewater treatment pilot project run by a company called Aris Water Solutions.
At the mobile trailer field office of the Aris project, Aldridge admired fish tanks on display filled with crystal clear water run through Aris’s treatment technology, and home to around two dozen minnows.
Before it is treated, though, the water is dangerous. Employees on site are required to wear flame retardant clothing and carry portable monitors to detect deadly gases.
The untreated water is trucked in by local drillers and held in two large storage tanks before getting piped through a membrane filter to remove solids, and then distilled.
The process yields clear water, and leaves behind a highly toxic rust-colored mud that is reinjected underground at a registered saltwater disposal site.
The water, Aris says, is free of pollutants or radionuclides, and fit for industrial and agricultural uses. Starting next year, Aris will begin growing non-food crops like cotton as part of a $10 million grant it won this year from the U.S. Department of Energy.
“We look at the concept of desalinating produced water and creating a new water resource for the Permian region in a similar way to how the water industry was able to demonstrate that municipal wastewater could be safely treated and used for many purposes that society could become comfortable with,” said Lisa Henthorne, chief scientist at Aris.
The main problem for Aris and others is cost. A barrel of Aris’ treated water costs over $2 a barrel, many times higher than what industrial or agricultural water users typically pay. Aris says its goal is to bring costs down to $1 – still representing a big bill for users.
Massachusetts-based Zwitter, which recently finalized a separate water treatment pilot project in New Mexico, said treated water may never be cheap, but could become viable if it becomes cheaper than disposal.
“It is unlikely that agriculture or other water users will be able to pay more than cents per barrel. Therefore, the value of desalination will be driven by saving disposal costs and could be from $2 to $3/BW (per barrel of water) in the future,” it said in the final report on its project.
Disposal currently costs cents per barrel, but that could rise as injection sites fill up and waste needs to be trucked or piped ever further.
Aris has strategic agreements with Permian oil majors including Chevron (NYSE:), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:) to develop and pilot technologies for treating produced water for potential reuse.
Exxon subsidiary XTO has also partnered with Infinity Water Solutions, another water treatment firm running a pilot project in the Permian.
“I can tell you, the H2O molecule has no value until you run out of it,” Infinity CEO Michael Dyson added.
TERRIFIED OF GETTING IT WRONG
Avner Vengosh, a professor of environmental quality at Duke University, said unknown safety risks are also a key concern.
Under federal law, U.S. producers are not required to disclose all the chemicals they introduce to oil wells while drilling, raising worries that water treatments and testing are missing some dangerous components.
“There are a lot of technologies that can treat the water but the question is how can we evaluate all possible contaminants in produced water? I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I am saying it needs to be done correctly,” he said.
Infinity’s Dyson agreed the industry needs to tread carefully.
“We know we’re only going to get one real chance of getting this right, and if anything, I think most of us are terrified of getting it wrong,” he said.
The state’s environment department is updating its 2019 Produced Water Act with the aim of firming up water reuse rules and expanding research and development for use outside the oil and gas sector.
During a week of hearings on the effort in early August, divisions were huge, with environmental groups and some scientists questioning how safe the end-product could be.
Daniel Tso, a former Navajo Nation Council member, told Reuters the Navajo had been stung before in New Mexico when decades of uranium mining on their land in the last century led to widespread radioactive pollution.
“Now the industry is trying to make this a public problem and the public has to really scrutinize the effects,” he said of produced water.
James Kenney, New Mexico’s environment secretary, told Reuters that the advances in technology over the last five years give him confidence that treated produced water can be safe, but acknowledged New Mexico’s poor record.
“We have to acknowledge our history of things like uranium mining, the promise of wealth and the failure to protect health. So communities are right to be skeptical,” he said.
For Aldridge, though, the more he learns about wastewater treatment technology, the more willing he is to fight for the state to open up more uses for the water.
“Am I 100% convinced? No, but they’re taking a step to convince me and I need to take those steps with them,” he said.
His own rural town of Jal, he said, could become home to “industries of the future” like data centers or green hydrogen projects, businesses that need ample supplies of water.
Or it could dry up, like the drilling industry will when the Permian empties of oil and gas.
“I just can’t abide by the idea that small rural communities like Jal can just vanish.”
Commodities
Natural gas prices outlook for 2025
Investing.com — The outlook for prices in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, influenced by a mix of global demand trends, supply-side constraints, and weather-driven uncertainties.
As per analysts at BofA Securities, U.S. Henry Hub prices are expected to average $3.33/MMBtu for the year, marking a rebound from the low levels seen throughout much of 2024.
Natural gas prices in 2024 were characterized by subdued trading, largely oscillating between $2 and $3/MMBtu, making it the weakest year since the pandemic-induced slump in 2020.
This price environment persisted despite record domestic demand, which averaged over 78 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), buoyed by increases in power generation needs and continued industrial activity.
However, warm weather conditions during the 2023–24 winter suppressed residential and commercial heating demand, contributing to the overall price weakness.
Looking ahead, several factors are poised to tighten the natural gas market and elevate prices in 2025.
A key driver is the anticipated rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as new facilities, including the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 projects, come online.
These additions are expected to significantly boost U.S. feedgas demand, adding strain to domestic supply and lifting prices.
The ongoing growth in exports to Mexico via pipeline, which hit record levels in 2024, further underscores the international pull on U.S. gas.
On the domestic front, production constraints could play a pivotal role in shaping the price trajectory.
While U.S. dry gas production remains historically robust, averaging around 101 Bcf/d in 2024, capital discipline among exploration and production companies suggests a limited ability to rapidly scale output in response to higher prices.
Producers have strategically withheld volumes, awaiting a more favorable pricing environment. If supply fails to match the anticipated uptick in demand, analysts warn of potential upward repricing in the market.
Weather patterns remain a wildcard. Forecasts suggest that the 2024–25 winter could be 2°F colder than the previous year, potentially driving an additional 500 Bcf of seasonal demand.
However, should warmer-than-expected temperatures materialize, the opposite effect could dampen price gains. Historically, colder winters have correlated with significant price spikes, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to heating demand.
The structural shift in the U.S. power generation mix also supports a bullish case for natural gas. Ongoing retirements of coal-fired power plants, coupled with the rise of renewable energy, have entrenched natural gas as a critical bridge fuel.
Even as wind and solar capacity expand, natural gas is expected to fill gaps in generation during periods of low renewable output, further solidifying its role in the energy transition.
Commodities
Trump picks Brooke Rollins to be agriculture secretary
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Brooke Rollins (NYSE:), president of the America First Policy Institute, to be agriculture secretary.
“As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American Farmers, who are truly the backbone of our Country,” Trump said in a statement.
If confirmed by the Senate, Rollins would lead a 100,000-person agency with offices in every county in the country, whose remit includes farm and nutrition programs, forestry, home and farm lending, food safety, rural development, agricultural research, trade and more. It had a budget of $437.2 billion in 2024.
The nominee’s agenda would carry implications for American diets and wallets, both urban and rural. Department of Agriculture officials and staff negotiate trade deals, guide dietary recommendations, inspect meat, fight wildfires and support rural broadband, among other activities.
“Brooke’s commitment to support the American Farmer, defense of American Food Self-Sufficiency, and the restoration of Agriculture-dependent American Small Towns is second to none,” Trump said in the statement.
The America First Policy Institute is a right-leaning think tank whose personnel have worked closely with Trump’s campaign to help shape policy for his incoming administration. She chaired the Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term.
As agriculture secretary, Rollins would advise the administration on how and whether to implement clean fuel tax credits for biofuels at a time when the sector is hoping to grow through the production of sustainable aviation fuel.
The nominee would also guide next year’s renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, in the shadow of disputes over Mexico’s attempt to bar imports of genetically modified corn and Canada’s dairy import quotas.
Trump has said he again plans to institute sweeping tariffs that are likely to affect the farm sector.
He was considering offering the role to former U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler, a staunch ally whom he chose to co-chair his inaugural committee, CNN reported on Friday.
Commodities
Citi simulates an increase of global oil prices to $120/bbl. Here’s what happens
Investing.cm — Citi Research has simulated the effects of a hypothetical oil price surge to $120 per barrel, a scenario reflecting potential geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
As per Citi, such a price hike would result in a major but temporary economic disruption, with global output losses peaking at around 0.4% relative to the baseline forecast.
While the impact diminishes over time as oil prices gradually normalize, the economic ripples are uneven across regions, flagging varying levels of resilience and policy responses.
The simulated price increase triggers a contraction in global economic output, primarily driven by higher energy costs reducing disposable incomes and corporate profit margins.
The global output loss, though substantial at the onset, is projected to stabilize between 0.3% and 0.4% before fading as oil prices return to baseline forecasts.
The United States shows a more muted immediate output loss compared to the Euro Area or China.
This disparity is partly attributed to the U.S.’s status as a leading oil producer, which cushions the domestic economy through wealth effects, such as stock market boosts from energy sector gains.
However, the U.S. advantage is short-lived; tighter monetary policies to counteract inflation lead to delayed negative impacts on output.
Headline inflation globally is expected to spike by approximately two percentage points, with the U.S. experiencing a slightly more pronounced increase.
The relatively lower taxation of energy products in the U.S. amplifies the pass-through of oil price shocks to consumers compared to Europe, where higher energy taxes buffer the direct impact.
Central bank responses diverge across regions. In the U.S., where inflation impacts are more acute, the Federal Reserve’s reaction function—based on the Taylor rule—leads to an initial tightening of monetary policy. This contrasts with more subdued policy changes in the Euro Area and China, where central banks are less aggressive in responding to the transient inflation spike.
Citi’s analysts frame this scenario within the context of ongoing geopolitical volatility, particularly in the Middle East. The model assumes a supply disruption of 2-3 million barrels per day over several months, underscoring the precariousness of energy markets to geopolitical shocks.
The report flags several broader implications. For policymakers, the challenge lies in balancing short-term inflation control with the need to cushion economic output.
For businesses and consumers, a price hike of this magnitude underscores the importance of energy cost management and diversification strategies.
Finally, the analysts cautions that the simulation’s results may understate risks if structural changes, such as the U.S.’s evolving role as an energy exporter, are not fully captured in the model.
While the simulation reflects a temporary shock, its findings reinforce the need for resilience in energy policies and monetary frameworks. Whether or not such a scenario materializes, Citi’s analysis provides a window into the complex interplay of economics, energy, and geopolitics in shaping global economic outcomes.
- Forex2 years ago
Forex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China
- Forex2 years ago
The dollar is down again against major world currencies