Commodities
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards extend control over Tehran’s oil exports, sources say

By Jonathan Saul and Parisa Hafezi
LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on the country’s oil industry and control up to half the exports that generate most of Tehran’s revenue and fund its proxies across the Middle East, according to Western officials, security sources and Iranian insiders.
All aspects of the oil business have come under the growing influence of the Guards, from the shadow fleet of tankers that secretively ship sanctioned crude, to logistics and the front companies selling the oil, mostly to China, according to more than a dozen people interviewed by Reuters.
The extent of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) control over oil exports has not previously been reported.
Despite tough Western sanctions designed to choke Iran’s energy industry, reimposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, Iran generates more than $50 billion a year in oil revenue, by far its largest source of foreign currency and its principal connection to the global economy.
Six specialists – Western officials and security experts as well as Iranian and trading sources – said the Guards control up to 50% of Iran’s oil exports, a sharp increase from about 20% three years ago. The sources declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Three of the estimates were based on intelligence documents about Iranian shipping while others derived their figures from monitoring shipping activity by tankers and companies linked to the IRGC. Reuters was unable to determine the exact extent of the IRGC’s control.
The IRGC’s growing domination of the oil industry adds to its influence in all areas of Iran’s economy and also makes it harder for Western sanctions to hit home – given the Guards are already designated as a terrorist organisation by Washington.
Trump’s return to the White House in January, however, could mean tougher enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. The country’s oil minister said Tehran is putting measures in place to deal with any restrictions, without giving details.
As part of their expansion in the industry, the Guards have muscled in on the territory of state institutions such as the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and its NICO oil trading subsidiary, according to four of the sources.
When sanctions hit Iran’s oil exports years ago, the people running NIOC and the wider industry were specialised in oil rather than how to evade sanctions, added Richard Nephew, a former deputy special envoy for Iran at the U.S. State Department.
“The IRGC guys were much, much better at smuggling, just terrible at oil field management, so they began to get a larger control of oil exports,” said Nephew, who is now a researcher at Columbia University.
The IRGC, NIOC, NICO and Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
RISK APPETITE
The IRGC is a powerful political, military and economic force with close ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Guards exert influence in the Middle East through their overseas operations arm, the Quds Force, by providing money, weapons, technology and training to allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthis and militias in Iraq.
While Israel has killed a number of senior IRGC commanders over the past year, the oil specialists in its ranks have been able to continue their operations, two Western and two Iranian sources said.
The Iranian government began allotting oil, instead of cash, to the IRGC and Quds Force around 2013, according to Nephew.
The government was under budgetary pressure then because it was struggling to export oil due to Western sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear programme.
The IRGC proved adept at finding ways to sell oil even under sanctions pressure, said Nephew, who was actively involved in tracking Iranian oil activities then.
Iranian oil revenues hit $53 billion in 2023 compared with $54 billion in 2022, $37 billion in 2021 and $16 billion in 2020, according to estimates from the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.
This year, Tehran’s oil output has topped 3.3 million barrels per day, the highest since 2018, according to OPEC figures, despite the Western sanctions.
China is Iran’s biggest buyer of oil, with most going to independent refineries, and the IRGC has created front companies to facilitate trade with buyers there, all the sources said.
Oil export revenues are split roughly evenly between the IRGC and NICO, said one source involved in Iranian oil sales to China. The IRGC sells oil at a $1-$2 barrel discount to prices offered by NICO because buyers take a bigger risk buying from the Guards, the person said.
“It depends on a buyer’s risk appetite, the higher ones will go for the IRGC, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group.”
Two Western sources estimated that the IRGC offered an even bigger discount, saying it was $5 per barrel on average but could be as much as $8.
The oil is allocated directly by the government to the IRGC and Quds Force. It’s then up to them to market and ship the oil – and work out a mechanism for disbursing the revenue, according to the sources and intelligence documents seen by Reuters.
NIOC gets a separate allocation.
CHINESE FRONT
One of the front companies used is China-based Haokun. Operated by former Chinese military officials, it remains an active conduit for IRGC oil sales into China, despite Washington hitting it with sanctions in 2022, two of the sources said.
The U.S. Treasury said China Haokun Energy had bought millions of barrels of oil from the IRGC-Quds Force and was sanctioned for having “materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, the IRGC-QF”.
In one oil transaction dated March 16, 2021 involving Haokun and parties including Turkish company Baslam Nakliyat – which is under U.S. sanctions for its trading links to the IRGC – a payment was processed via U.S. bank JP Morgan and Turkish lender Vakif Katilim, according to the intelligence documents.
The transaction took place before the companies were sanctioned. Reuters has no indication JP Morgan or Vakif Katilim were aware of the Iranian connection – highlighting the risks of companies getting inadvertently caught up in the shadow trade.
JP Morgan declined to comment. Vakif Katilim said in a statement: “Our bank performs its activities within the framework of national and international banking rules.”
Haokun declined to comment. Baslam did not respond to a request for comment.
‘GHOST FLEET’
Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. strike in Baghdad in 2020, had set up a clandestine headquarters and inaugurated that year for the unit’s oil smuggling activities, initially staffed by former oil minister Rostam Ghasemi, according to the intelligence documents.
Reuters could not determine where all the oil money funnelled through the IRGC goes. The IRGC headquarters and day-to-day operations has an annual budget of around $1 billion, according to assessments from two security sources tracking IRGC activities.
They estimated that the IRGC budget for Hezbollah was another $700 million a year.
“Exact figures remain undisclosed, as Hezbollah conceals the funds it receives. However, estimates are that its annual budget is approximately $700 million to $1 billion. Around 70%-80% of this funding comes directly from Iran,” Shlomit Wagman, former director general of Israel’s Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing Prohibition Authority, said separately.
Hezbollah did not respond to a request for comment.
The former Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike, said Iran provided the group’s budget, including for salaries and weapons.
Iran’s main tanker operator NITC, which previously played a key role in exports, also now provides services to the IRGC.
It executes ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian oil onto vessels operated by the IRGC to ship crude into China, according to sources and ship-tracking data. Such transfers are common practice to help disguise the origin of the oil tankers carry.
NITC did not respond to a request for comment.
In August, Israel’s National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing, part of the country’s defence ministry, imposed sanctions on 18 tankers it said were involved in transporting oil belonging to the Quds Force.
In October, the U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on 17 separate tankers it said formed part of Iran’s “ghost fleet”, outside of NITC vessels. It followed up with sanctions on a further 18 tankers on Dec. 3.
Commodities
Copper prices dip over 1% following Federal Reserve’s fewer rate cuts signal

Investing.com — Copper prices are down more than 1% after the Federal Reserve hinted at fewer rate cuts for the upcoming year.
The shift to a more hawkish stance by the Fed has resulted in an increase in bond yields, a surge in the strength of the dollar to 25-month highs, and a spike in volatility. This shift has also led to a sharp decline in key commodity currencies.
Market participants have expressed concern that there isn’t much on the annual calendar to halt this downward trend. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) contract has registered a 1.5% decrease, trading at $8,912 a ton.
In addition to the Federal Reserve’s stance, looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainties surrounding China’s domestic demand outlook continue to pressure the market.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Commodities
Gold prices rebound from Fed-driven rout, hawkish comments cloud outlook

Investing.com– Gold prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, although the central bank’s hawkish stance on future rate cuts clouded the outlook for bullion.
Gold prices had dropped more than 2% overnight after the Fed’s policy meeting indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, as sticky inflation remained a major concern.
jumped as much as 1.3% to $2,618.11, while expiring in February dropped 1.2% to $2,620.79 an ounce by 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT).
Spot gold rebounds, but outlook dim amid slower rate cuts
The Fed reduced by 25 basis points but signaled it will adopt a slower pace for future cuts.
Lower interest rates bode well for gold prices as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
However, gold futures fell sharply as the rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. Markets have ruled out chances of a cut in January and now expect just two more cuts in 2025, against their earlier expectations of four.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said further reductions depend on progress in curbing persistent inflation, reflecting policymakers’ adjustments to potential economic shifts under the incoming Donald Trump administration.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance was aimed at curbing inflation, but it also signals confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. This risk-on sentiment can reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, further dampening bullion’s prospects.
With fewer cuts expected in 2025, the is expected to strengthen further. The greenback surged to an over two-year high on Wednesday.
Additionally, the maintained its interest rates on Thursday, as policymakers remained cautious over Japan’s economic outlook and the path of inflation.
Among other precious metals, rose 0.7% to $928.90 an ounce, while slumped 2.7% to $29.922 an ounce.
Copper falls on as dollar hits 2-yr high
Among industrial metals, copper prices extended declines on Thursday after the Fed’s hawkish stance bolstered the dollar. The red metal took limited support from reports of more fiscal spending in top importer China over the coming year.
The rose 0.1% in Asian trade on Thursday and was at an over two-year high after the Fed meeting.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $8,921.50 a ton, while one-month were largely unchanged at $4.089 a pound.
Commodities
Oil slips on demand concerns after Fed signals slower rate cuts

By Colleen Howe, Trixie Yap and Anna Hirtenstein
(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the dollar.
futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.
The declines gave back Wednesday’s gains on a drop in stocks and the Fed’s expected rate cut of 25 basis points.
Prices weakened after U.S. central bankers issued projections pointing to two quarter-point cuts in 2025 on concern over rising inflation. That was half a point less than they had flagged in September.
“The bottom line for oil is the longer the Fed stays on pause, the stronger the U.S. dollar. This tends to generate headwinds for commodities like oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive while higher interest rates weigh on economic growth, potentially reducing demand for oil.
Chinese refining giant Sinopec (OTC:), meanwhile, expects China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, it said on Thursday.
“The demand-supply balance going into 2025 continues to look unfavourable and predictions of more than 1.0 million bpd demand growth in 2025 look stretched in our opinion. Even if OPEC+ continues to withhold production, the market may still be in surplus,” said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank energy sector team leader.
Though demand in the first half of December rose year on year, volumes remained lower than expected by some analysts.
JP Morgan analysts said that global oil demand growth for December so far was 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) less than it had expected, adding that global demand this year has risen by 200,000 bpd less than it had forecast in November 2023.
Official data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 934,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 13. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drawdown of 1.6 million barrels. [EIA/S]
While the decline was less than expected, the market found support from last week’s rise in U.S. crude exports by 1.8 million bpd to 4.89 million bpd.
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