Commodities
LNG shortages will lead to very high volatility on gas markets in 2023
Extremely high volatility in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets in 2023 will encourage U.S. LNG terminals to continue operating at full capacity, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ annual energy study. Still, analysts are predicting natural gas futures prices will rise.
At the same time, prices at the main U.S. gas hub – Henry Hub – are likely to fall because liquefaction capacity will remain at the same level. Despite very high natural gas futures prices, the shortage of new liquefaction capacity will prevent production from rising as much as buyers in Europe and Asia would certainly like.
As a result, gas markets (especially in Europe) will try to balance lower demand with existing reserves instead of increasing LNG production. For Europe, we do not rule out a growing deficit in the gas and electricity markets in FY23. The main reason for such dangerous dynamics is, the authors of the study of S & P Global emphasize, that next year will be the first year for Europe without significant amounts of Russian piped gas.
S&P Global expects a sharp growth in the European LNG infrastructure next year, which will significantly improve the situation with the reception of delivered gas. So we should be prepared for a decrease in natural gas futures prices on the back of this news. By the end of the year 10 LNG terminals will be operational or under construction.
In global gas markets, the most important fundamental determinant of global demand in 2023 will be, according to Dan Klein of S&P Global, Beijing’s coronavirus policy. Numerous lockdowns this year have reduced energy demand in the PRC, which has stabilized the gas, oil and coal markets in Europe, which after Feb. 24 has struggled all year to abandon and find substitutes for Russian energy.
Analysts and economists at S&P Global believe that after virtually no growth in energy demand in China this year in 2023, it will grow to 3.3 million barrels per day regarding oil. Growth in energy demand in the Celestial Empire is expected to account for almost half (47%) of all global growth next year.
Most gas producers agree with analysts’ and economists’ forecasts of extremely high volatility in gas markets in 2023.
Earlier, we reported that record production declines in key U.S. gas basins exacerbated the energy crisis.
Investing.com–Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as optimism around China’s economic growth lifted market sentiment.
The were last up 0.8% to $76.6 a barrel, and expiring in February was up 1.1% to $73.3 a barrel.
Oil had gained sharply in the previous session after data showed growth in Chinese factory activity.
Both contracts were on course for second consecutive weekly gains, with WTI 1.3% and 0.9% higher.
Chinese stimulus hopes support oil prices
China’s grew in December, a Caixin/S&P Global survey showed on Thursday, but at a slower pace than expected.
An official survey released on Tuesday also showed that China’s manufacturing activity barely grew in December. However, services and construction fared better, with the data suggesting that policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors.
Beijing has signaled looser monetary policy for 2025 and has doled out a raft of major stimulus measures since late September, in order to boost its sluggish economy.
China’s central bank has indicated that it plans to lower interest rates from the current 1.5% “at an appropriate time” in 2025, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Traders assess EIA data amid oversupply concerns
{{8849|US crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks saw significant increases as demand softened during the week ending December 27, the reported on Thursday.
The EIA stated that dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week, falling short of analysts’ expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel decrease.
Latest EIA surveys have shown that U.S. oil production remains near record levels, and the incoming Donald Trump administration is likely to agree to policies that would focus on ramping up domestic fossil fuel production.
This comes amid worries about potential oversupply driven by anticipated production increases from non-OPEC nations, further underscoring an oversupply scenario.
The International Energy Agency recently said that the oil market will remain adequately supplied, despite a rise in demand forecast for 2025.
(Peter Nurse contributed to this article.)
Commodities
Biden to ban new oil drilling over vast areas of US Atlantic, Pacific waters, Bloomberg News reports
(Reuters) – President Joe Biden is set to ban new offshore oil and gas development across 625 million acres (250 million hectares) of U.S. coastal territory, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
The ban, to be announced on Monday, rules out the sale of drilling rights in stretches of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, said the report, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
Biden is leaving the possibility open for new oil and leasing in the central and western areas of the Gulf of Mexico, which account for around 14% of the nation’s production of these fuels, the report said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside of business hours.
The ban would solidify Biden’s legacy on addressing climate change and his goal to decarbonize the U.S. economy by 2050.
The New York Times (NYSE:) reported that a section of the law Biden’s decision relies on, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, gives a president wide leeway to bar drilling and does not include language that would allow President-elect Donald Trump or other future presidents to revoke the ban.
Biden, Trump and Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, all used the law to ban sales of offshore drilling rights in some coastal areas.
Trump tried in 2017 to reverse Arctic and Atlantic Ocean withdrawals Obama had made at the end of his presidency, but a federal judge ruled in 2019 that the law does not give presidents the legal authority to overturn prior bans.
(Reuters) – Russian rescue workers have cleared more than 86,000 metric tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait following an oil spill in the Black Sea last month, the emergencies ministry said on Saturday.
The oil leaked from two ageing tankers that were hit by a storm on Dec. 15. One sank and the other ran aground.
More than 10,000 people have been working to shovel up viscous, foul-smelling fuel oil from sandy beaches in and around Anapa, a popular summer resort. Environmental groups have reported deaths of dolphins, porpoises and sea birds.
The emergencies ministry said on the Telegram messaging app that oil-tainted soil had been collected in the broader Kuban region in Russia and in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Kyiv in 2014.
The ministry published video footage showing dozens of workers in protective suits loading bags of dirt onto diggers and others skimming dirt off the sand with shovels.
Russia’s transport ministry said this week experts had established that about 2,400 metric tons of oil products had spilled into the sea, a smaller spill than initially feared.
When the disaster struck, state media reported that the stricken tankers, both more than 50-years old, were carrying some 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products in total.
The spill involved heavy M100-grade fuel oil that solidifies at a temperature of 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) and, unlike other oil products, does not float to the surface but sinks to the bottom or remains suspended in the water column.
Forex2 years agoForex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China
- Forex2 years ago
The dollar is down again against major world currencies
