Under the influence of the expected decline of oil supplies from Russia and the growing concern of slowing economic growth in major economies, including China, still struggling with the coronavirus, many analysts, including such leading banks as Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and UBS, lowered the forecast of the dynamics of oil price forecasts 2022, writes Bloomberg.

In the worsening situation with the supply of oil in the West, while Russian oil continues to be sold at discount prices to Asian countries, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG have reduced their long term oil price forecasts for oil by $15 per barrel.

The benchmark Brent crude, for example, has fallen by about a third since its peak in early March. but it will fall further in the next few months, although it may rebound next year as the economy recovers and Russian oil supplies decline.

Morgan cut its Brent price forecast for the third quarter by $12 a barrel to $98 and for the fourth quarter by $5 to $95. Quarterly forecasts for 2023 remain at $100 or higher.

Russian oil exports are likely to decline by 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day in early 2023.

As for UBS Group AG, the bank cut its long term oil price forecasts for Brent by $15 per barrel to $110. Brent will recover to $125/bbl by the end of September 2023.

Finally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) expects Brent to rise to its projected 2023 level of $125/bbl if a price ceiling on Russian oil exports is established, while Russian supplies will fall by 1 million bpd.

Earlier, we reported that global chip sales were down 2.3% in July compared to June.