Under the influence of the expected decline of oil supplies from Russia and the growing concern of slowing economic growth in major economies, including China, still struggling with the coronavirus, many analysts, including such leading banks as Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and UBS, lowered the forecast of the dynamics of oil price forecasts 2022, writes Bloomberg.
In the worsening situation with the supply of oil in the West, while Russian oil continues to be sold at discount prices to Asian countries, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG have reduced their long term oil price forecasts for oil by $15 per barrel.
The benchmark Brent crude, for example, has fallen by about a third since its peak in early March. but it will fall further in the next few months, although it may rebound next year as the economy recovers and Russian oil supplies decline.
Morgan cut its Brent price forecast for the third quarter by $12 a barrel to $98 and for the fourth quarter by $5 to $95. Quarterly forecasts for 2023 remain at $100 or higher.
Russian oil exports are likely to decline by 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day in early 2023.
As for UBS Group AG, the bank cut its long term oil price forecasts for Brent by $15 per barrel to $110. Brent will recover to $125/bbl by the end of September 2023.
Finally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) expects Brent to rise to its projected 2023 level of $125/bbl if a price ceiling on Russian oil exports is established, while Russian supplies will fall by 1 million bpd.
Earlier, we reported that global chip sales were down 2.3% in July compared to June.
Bloomberg: UAE to boost oil production beyond plan by 2025
UAE to boost oil production. One of Russia’s main competitors for oil exports plans to reach five million barrels per day by 2025. The Middle Eastern country was initially expected to reach this level only by 2030, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.
“Energy concern Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc), which produces almost all of the UAE’s oil, wants to be able to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2025. The company planned to reach such a level only by 2030,” – says the material.
But a crude oil production boost will be difficult without additional financing for expenses for the project. Adnoc explained the acceleration of production increase by the policy of the leading countries of the world on accelerated energy transition to renewable energy sources (RES).
“As we embrace the energy transition and focus our business on the future, we will continue to explore potential opportunities that can further add value, free up capital and improve profitability,” the Arab oil company said.
To realize the goal, Adnoc has asked international companies that are partners in its oil fields to increase long-term crude production by 10% or more, sources said. In the case of positive results of the negotiations, the UAE will be able to significantly increase the volume of oil production by 2025, concludes Bloomberg.
On September 19, the Times of India, citing sources in the Indian Ministry of Commerce, reported that the Asian country has saved since February 2022, $439.7 million on imports from Russia of oil at a discount. A total of about 62.5 million barrels of Russian crude were purchased by Indian state and private companies over the last six months. Moreover, volumes of imports have increased many times over as compared to 2021.
Earlier, we reported that Nigeria stopped benefiting from the sale of Nigerian oil due to the lack of dollars.
FT: Nigeria stopped benefiting from Nigeria crude oil sales due to lack of dollars
Nigeria’s crude oil sales used to grow steadily. But now the country, which is considered one of the world’s largest oil exporters, is facing a crisis. The country is short of dollars, and the factor of “massive theft” has only exacerbated the problems of the African state, reports the Financial Times.
“Since the beginning of the year, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by 5%, to $38 billion. Restrictions on the purchase of dollars and the resulting deficit has led to the emergence of a black currency market. $1 is worth 420 naira at the official exchange rate and 700 naira on the black market,” the paper said.
Because of increasing corruption in the country, Nigeria, the world’s tenth largest oil exporter, can no longer increase production of crude oil. Nigerian crude oil buyers are not happy with this fact. The African state exports a little more than half of the established OPEC quota – 1.1 million barrels per day, instead of the required 1.8 million.
Despite all the difficulties going on in Nigeria’s economy, Timipre Silva, the African country’s Minister of State for Petroleum, announced plans to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe by the coming winter. According to him, to realize this goal, it is necessary to improve safety in Nigeria’s fields and infrastructure.
Earlier we reported that coffee stocks in Brazil in six months will approach a record low level.
Coffee exporters in Brazil: coffee stocks in Brazil in six months will approach a record low level
Coffee exporters in Brazil said that coffee stocks in the largest coffee-producing country in the world – Brazil – in six months will fall to a record low level. This was written by Bloomberg agency about the statement of the president of the National Council of Brazilian Coffee Silas Brasileiro.
According to his forecast, stocks of coffee in Brazil’s coffee supply companies by March will drop to 7 million bags, whereas analysts consider a comfortable level of 9-12 million bags of 60 kg each.
Cecafe Exporters Group board member Nelson Carvallaish said the country’s coffee stocks are so small that even if next year’s crop is good, Brazil will barely have enough coffee to meet demand.” “We just need rain,” he concluded.
In August, The Wall Street Journal wrote that the price of coffee could rise seriously by the end of 2022 because of Brazil’s poor harvest.
Earlier we reported that aluminum production in China in August reached a record 3.51 million tons.
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