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Morning bid: Fed fears overwhelm AI theme, gold recoils

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A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

And then there was one.

In an extraordinary turnabout in just five months, financial markets now fully price just one quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year – compared to the six built into futures prices at the start of 2024.

The good news is that’s largely down to the sheer strength of the ongoing U.S. expansion – the bad news is that very strength makes it harder for the Fed to see inflation hitting its target and keeps it hesitating on a first rate cut.

Thursday’s reversal of fortunes on Wall St reflected all that clearly, with surprisingly strong business and labor market updates seeding the worst day of the month for despite Nvidia (NASDAQ:)’s near 10% surge on another blowout earnings report infused by the artificial intelligence boom.

Even though the broader tech sector ended the day higher, the 10 other major stock sectors were left in the red. And the equal-weighted S&P500 lost 1.4%.

Fed fears 1 – AI 0.

With just 35 basis points of Fed easing now priced for the year, two-year Treasury yields climbed back to within 4bps of the 5% threshold. The dollar jumped back to its best level since mid May and that in turn triggered a reversal in lofty gold prices – clocking their worst day in month and worst week of the year.

The bounced back more than a point from pre-pandemic lows.

A so-called “bear-flattening” of the yield curve saw the inversion of the 2-10 year yield gap deepen to its most negative this year – with yields at both tenures rising but short rates up by more.

The yield curve has been inverted for almost two years solid now and its reliability as a harbinger of recession has been shot to bits – underscoring the peculiarity of this particular cycle and how the Fed may be struggling to cool it down.

Ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on Monday, all the major price indicators have given back a bit of Thursday’s moves – with up 0.2% ahead of the bell and both Treasury yields and the dollar off a touch.

But the Fed rate jitters rippled across the world overnight, with bourses in Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong and Shanghai losing more than 1% on Friday.

China’s ongoing military exercises around Taiwan have not helped investor confidence.

Europe’s two-day loss continued – with regional interest rate and political concerns of its own.

Even though the European Central Bank is still nailed on to deliver its first rate cut next month, unexpected strength in May business readings and a surprising acceleration of negotiated wage settlements in the first quarter have dragged market pricing for full-year ECB easing back below 60bp.

The rethink of the Bank of England’s trajectory this week has been even more dramatic as sticky UK inflation readings combined with news of a snap election for July 4.

Although Friday’s data showed UK retail sales plunging far more than forecast last month, money markets have wiped out chances of a BoE cut next month and now only see a 1-in-3 chance of a move in August.

Sterling, whose broader trade-weighted index is back up at 8-year highs to pre-Brexit referendum levels, recaptured some of Thursday’s losses against the dollar.

Elsewhere, traders monitored the G7 finance meeting in Italy and a Friday speech from Fed governor Chris Waller in Iceland.

In company news, a 7.55% tumble in Boeing (NYSE:) on Thursday after the U.S. planemaker forecast negative free cash flow in 2024 accounted for over 90 points to the downside for the blue-chip .

Ticketmaster-owner Live Nation slumped almost 8% after the U.S. Justice Department along with a group of 30 states and the District of Columbia Thursday sued to break up the concert promoter.

In Europe on Friday, shares of Renault (EPA:) rose 4% after the French carmaker announced a share buyback plan. And Britain’s National Grid (LON:) regained nearly all of Thursday’s 10% plunge on plans to raise about 7 billion pounds ($8.9 billion) in a rights issue.

Abrdn shares slipped after the UK fund manager’s CEO Stephen Bird stepped down.

Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:

* U.S. April durable goods orders, University of Michigan’s final May household survey reading

* G7 finance ministers and central bank Governors meet in Stresa, Italy

© Reuters. AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters and robot hand are placed on computer motherboard in this illustration taken, June 23, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

* Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Workday (NASDAQ:)

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Nick Macfie mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

Commodities

Oil set for third weekly decline, pressured by Gaza ceasefire hopes

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By Laila Kearney and Georgina McCartney

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

futures for September dipped 56 cents to $81.81 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 40 cents to $77.88.

For the week, Brent is trading down almost 1% while WTI is down more than 2%.

Recent data, such as July 20 figures showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024, have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Oil price declines were capped, however, by threats to production from Canadian wildfires, a large stocks draw and continued hopes of a September cut to U.S. interest rates after strong economic data, said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall; set for weekly losses on demand concerns

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Friday, on course for a third consecutive losing week as concerns over sluggish demand conditions in Asia weighed.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), fell 0.9% to $81.62 a barrel, and dropped 0.8% to $77.66 a barrel.

Crude set for third straight week of losses

Both benchmarks are on course for another losing week, the third in succession, with down just under 1% and WTI nearly 3% lower.

Persistent concerns over slowing growth and demand in top importer China have been the dominant factor, part triggered by GDP data from last week, which showed the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.

Additionally, more data this week showed the country’s apparent oil demand fell 8.1% to 13.66 million barrels per day in June.

Beijing unexpectedly cut a swathe of lending rates this week, further trying to loosen monetary policy amid growing concerns over sluggish growth. 

Apart from China, uncertainty over Japan also grew following middling , while weak activity data in Europe also pointed to economic woes.  

Gaza ceasefire in focus

Also weighing on the crude market have been increasing hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza.

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and Canada called for an immediate ceasefire in a joint statement on Friday, while U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to help efforts at reaching a deal, striking a tougher tone than President Joe Biden.

A ceasefire has been talked about for months, but if it was to occur then some of the risk premium could be removed from the market.

Strong US GDP, rate cut hopes offer some support 

On the flip side,  data, released on Thursday, showed that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, despite pressure from high rates and relatively sticky inflation.

The reading drove up hopes that the world’s biggest fuel consumer was headed for a “soft landing,” where economic growth remained steady while inflation eased. 

These hopes were also lifted by the data showing overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June.

According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the  (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. .

Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year “core” gauge, widely known as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, only marginally above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This sparked increased optimism over a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Data showing steady drawdowns in U.S. also offered some positive cues to oil markets, as fuel demand in the country remained robust amid the travel-heavy summer season. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Canadian wildfire reaches Jasper, firefighters battle to protect oil pipeline

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(Reuters) -A wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper, Alberta on Wednesday, one of hundreds ravaging the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as firefighters battled to save key facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, authorities said.

Wildfires burning uncontrolled across the region include 433 in British Columbia and 176 in Alberta, more than a dozen of them in the area of Fort McMurray, an oil sands hub.

The pipeline, which can carry 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver, runs through a national park in the Canadian Rockies near the picturesque tourist town, from which about 25,000 people were forced to evacuate on Tuesday.

“Firefighters … are working to save as many structures as possible and protect critical infrastructure, including the wastewater treatment plant, communications facilities, the Trans Mountain Pipeline,” Parks Canada said in a post on Facebook (NASDAQ:).

The pipeline operator did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, but said earlier it was safely operating the pipeline and had deployed sprinkler protection as a preventive measure.

In the day’s last update, Jasper National Park said it could not report on the extent of damage to specific locations or neighbourhoods, and that it would provide further updates on Thursday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government approved Alberta’s request for federal assistance.

“We’re deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately – and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.”

The town, and the park, which draws more than two million tourists a year, were evacuated on Monday night, at a time when officials estimated there were 15,000 visitors in the park.

© Reuters. Smoke rises from the Lower Campbell Creek wildfire (K51472) wildfire northwest of Beaverdell, British Columbia, Canada July 24, 2024.   BC Wildfire Service/Handout via REUTERS.

Deteriorating air quality forced firefighters and others lacking breathing equipment to evacuate to the town of Hinton, about 100 km (62 miles) away, park authorities said on Facebook on Wednesday evening.

Officials of Parks Canada earlier said they expected rain to arrive overnight.

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