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Commodities

Oil falls as China stimulus fails to boost sentiment, US dollar strength

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday (NASDAQ:), after China’s stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking fuel demand growth in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer and as the U.S. dollar edged higher.

futures fell $1.10, or 1.5% to $72.77 a barrel by 1101 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.17 a barrel, down $1.21, or 1.7%.

Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.

The dollar firmed 0.40%, as traders prepared for a key reading of U.S. consumer inflation this week, as well as a parade of Federal Reserve speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

A stronger dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.

In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy.

“Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory…, Chinese economic momentum remains negative,” said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, market analyst at brokerage XM.

The latest support measures will not revive China’s oil demand growth or imports, said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM.

“After last week’s U.S. presidential election attention is slowly drifting back to the underlying fundamentals,” Varga said.

Oil prices also eased after concerns about potential supply disruptions from storm Rafael in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico subsided.

More than a quarter of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 16% of output remained offline on Sunday, according to the offshore energy regulator.

Looking ahead, there were also concerns that U.S. oil and gas output could rise under the new Trump administration although analysts say 2025’s production forecast is unlikely to change.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

“We think producers may think twice about turbo-charging U.S. supply in an era when OPEC+ has already staked out plans to gradually raise production targets over the course of 2025,” Tim Evans of Evans Energy said in a note.

Trump’s election promise of hiking import tariffs to boost the U.S. economy has clouded the global economic outlook although expectations that he could tighten sanctions on OPEC producers Iran and Venezuela and cut oil supply to global markets partly caused oil prices to gain more than 1% last week.

Commodities

Gold prices flat amid thin year-end trading, strong dollar creates pressure

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Investing.com– Gold prices were slightly in the red on Friday amid thin year-end trading, although they were set to edge higher this week amid a cautious outlook following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

was marginally lower at $2,628.22 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.4% lower to $2,643.05 an ounce by 07:38 ET (12:38 GMT).

Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.

Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.

The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.

Gold under pressure from strong Dollar

The was slightly higher in Asian trade on Friday and hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

Other precious metals were also muted on Friday. were unchanged at $954.50 an ounce, while were steady at $30.380 an ounce.

Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.

At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Benchmark  on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,950.50 a ton, while February  edged down 0.3% to $4.0945 a pound.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report. 

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Commodities

Oil prices edge higher on China stimulus, lower U.S. inventories forecast

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as a holiday-shortened week led to thin volumes, while traders exercised caution around the year-end while assessing the outlook for the upcoming year.

At 07:28 ET (12:28 GMT),  were slightly up at $73.74 a barrel, and edged higher to $69.71 a barrel.

Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity. 

EIA data awaited after API shows fall in US crude inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is scheduled to release its weekly report later on Friday.

These figures provide insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market, influencing pricing and economic decisions.

Earlier this week, media reports stated that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) data.

“Probably we are moving back up again in anticipation of a crude draw in the U.S.,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Some support for oil might come soon from cold weather supporting demand.”

This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

China stimulus hopes persist

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.

The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report. 

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Commodities

Shell shuts down oil processing unit to investigate leak, Singapore’s port authority says

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(Reuters) -Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at its Pulau Bukom facility to investigate a suspected leak, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) and National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Friday.

The oil company estimates that a few tonnes of refined oil products, along with cooling water discharge used in the refining process, have leaked.

Pulau Bukom, site of Singapore’s first refinery, now houses Shell (LON:)’s only energy and chemicals park in Asia, according to the company’s website.

Shell confirmed in an emailed statement to Reuters that oil sheens were spotted alongside a wharf on Dec. 26, 2024 at Shell Energy and Park Singapore.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of Shell's Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore, July 18, 2024. REUTERS/Caroline Chia/File Photo

The company stated it has taken steps to contain the leak and prevent it from spreading into the sea and has deployed boats alongside the MPA to clean up light oil sheens observed near the leak site.

The MPA said investigations are ongoing, and navigation traffic in the area remains unaffected.

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