A separate cause for concern is the supply of Russian oil to world markets. Oil futures prices today continue to decline amid concerns about the recession and the news about the restoration of production in Libya.

On July 22, 2022, the price of Brent oil futures for October at the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures decreased by 1.11%, to $98.38/barrel. The price of October oil futures of the Brent brand on the London ICE Futures exchange decreased by 1.11% to $98.38/bbl.

Oil futures WTI for September at electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by 1.71%, to $94.70/bbl. The price went down by 1.71% to $94.70 per barrel. Brent crude oil went down in price by 2.15% and WTI crude oil – by 2.75%.

Crude Oil Futures: Oil Continues to Decline on July 25, 2022

But the rate of decline is gradually slowing. The price of October oil futures for Brent on ICE Futures fell by 0.92%, to $97.47/bbl. The price of October oil futures of Brent on ICE Futures decreased by 0.92% to $97.47 per barrel. On electronic trading, NYMEX crude oil futures WTI for September fell by 0.89% to $93.86/barrel. US dollars per barrel.

U.S. natural gas futures are near $8.2/bbl. USD/mln Btu (USD 294/1000 m3). On July 22, 2022, natural gas futures for September on the NYMEX rose 4.86% to $8.195/million Btu. USD/mln Btu.

On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. Gas quotations in Europe are holding above $1,700/mln Btu. USD/1000m3. August gas futures on ICE Futures’ TTF hub in the Netherlands were trading at 164.9 Euro/MWh (USD 1763.8/1000m3) by 11:30 Moscow time on July 25, which was 3.15% higher than the previous day’s settlement price.

Oil futures prices start new week with decline 

Oil futures prices start the new week lower on another wave of recession fears and reduced supply worries. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet on July 26-27, 2022 and expect another 75 bps hike in the benchmark interest rate.

A serious tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy, according to many experts, could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

The head of the U.S. Treasury D. Yellen, in an interview to TV channel NBC on July 24, admitted that the U.S. economy is slowing down, while denying the recession.

Д. Yellen said that the economy is slowing down against a background of strong recovery growth in the post-pandemic period – in 2021, the U.S. economy grew by 5.5%. According to the minister, the economy is not in a period of recession, but in a period of change; when growth slows down, it is necessary, and appropriate to the situation.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. economy in the 1st quarter of 2022 decreased by 1.6% in annual terms, and expert estimates indicate that the decline continued into the 2nd quarter of 2022. Thus, the decline lasted for the 2nd consecutive quarter, which is considered the definition of a technical recession.

The market paid attention to data from Libya

National Oil Corporation (NOC) on July 23, 2022 reported that after the lifting of the force majeure on the fields and export ports, daily production increased from 560 kbpd as of July 11 to 860 kbpd as of July 22. Within 2 weeks, NOC plans to increase its oil production to 1.2mbpd.

The growth of active rigs in the USA continues to slow down

According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US rose by 2 units to 758 in the week ended July 22, 2022. The number of active oil rigs remained unchanged at 599.

The number of gas rigs increased by 2 units to 155. The number of multifunctional rigs remained unchanged at 4.

Separate cause for market concern are Russian oil supplies to the world market

On July 21, 2022, the EU adjusted the sanctions regime against Russia, allowing Russian state companies to supply oil to third countries to limit the risks to global energy security.

However, the market sees risks to Russia’s oil supply due to the US and G7 plans to set ceiling prices for Russian oil by December 2022.

Russia may stop supplying oil to countries that will introduce a price ceiling for Russian oil, which will provoke a rise in global prices.