Commodities
Oil futures prices are getting cheaper, but the rate of decline is gradually slowing down
A separate cause for concern is the supply of Russian oil to world markets. Oil futures prices today continue to decline amid concerns about the recession and the news about the restoration of production in Libya.
On July 22, 2022, the price of Brent oil futures for October at the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures decreased by 1.11%, to $98.38/barrel. The price of October oil futures of the Brent brand on the London ICE Futures exchange decreased by 1.11% to $98.38/bbl.
Oil futures WTI for September at electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by 1.71%, to $94.70/bbl. The price went down by 1.71% to $94.70 per barrel. Brent crude oil went down in price by 2.15% and WTI crude oil – by 2.75%.
Crude Oil Futures: Oil Continues to Decline on July 25, 2022
But the rate of decline is gradually slowing. The price of October oil futures for Brent on ICE Futures fell by 0.92%, to $97.47/bbl. The price of October oil futures of Brent on ICE Futures decreased by 0.92% to $97.47 per barrel. On electronic trading, NYMEX crude oil futures WTI for September fell by 0.89% to $93.86/barrel. US dollars per barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures are near $8.2/bbl. USD/mln Btu (USD 294/1000 m3). On July 22, 2022, natural gas futures for September on the NYMEX rose 4.86% to $8.195/million Btu. USD/mln Btu.
On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. Gas quotations in Europe are holding above $1,700/mln Btu. USD/1000m3. August gas futures on ICE Futures’ TTF hub in the Netherlands were trading at 164.9 Euro/MWh (USD 1763.8/1000m3) by 11:30 Moscow time on July 25, which was 3.15% higher than the previous day’s settlement price.
Oil futures prices start new week with decline
Oil futures prices start the new week lower on another wave of recession fears and reduced supply worries. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet on July 26-27, 2022 and expect another 75 bps hike in the benchmark interest rate.
A serious tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy, according to many experts, could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.
The head of the U.S. Treasury D. Yellen, in an interview to TV channel NBC on July 24, admitted that the U.S. economy is slowing down, while denying the recession.
Д. Yellen said that the economy is slowing down against a background of strong recovery growth in the post-pandemic period – in 2021, the U.S. economy grew by 5.5%. According to the minister, the economy is not in a period of recession, but in a period of change; when growth slows down, it is necessary, and appropriate to the situation.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. economy in the 1st quarter of 2022 decreased by 1.6% in annual terms, and expert estimates indicate that the decline continued into the 2nd quarter of 2022. Thus, the decline lasted for the 2nd consecutive quarter, which is considered the definition of a technical recession.
The market paid attention to data from Libya
National Oil Corporation (NOC) on July 23, 2022 reported that after the lifting of the force majeure on the fields and export ports, daily production increased from 560 kbpd as of July 11 to 860 kbpd as of July 22. Within 2 weeks, NOC plans to increase its oil production to 1.2mbpd.
The growth of active rigs in the USA continues to slow down
According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US rose by 2 units to 758 in the week ended July 22, 2022. The number of active oil rigs remained unchanged at 599.
The number of gas rigs increased by 2 units to 155. The number of multifunctional rigs remained unchanged at 4.
Separate cause for market concern are Russian oil supplies to the world market
On July 21, 2022, the EU adjusted the sanctions regime against Russia, allowing Russian state companies to supply oil to third countries to limit the risks to global energy security.
However, the market sees risks to Russia’s oil supply due to the US and G7 plans to set ceiling prices for Russian oil by December 2022.
Russia may stop supplying oil to countries that will introduce a price ceiling for Russian oil, which will provoke a rise in global prices.
Commodities
Gold prices flat amid thin year-end trading, strong dollar creates pressure
Investing.com– Gold prices were slightly in the red on Friday amid thin year-end trading, although they were set to edge higher this week amid a cautious outlook following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
was marginally lower at $2,628.22 per ounce, while expiring in February edged 0.4% lower to $2,643.05 an ounce by 07:38 ET (12:38 GMT).
Trading in gold typically sees thin volumes and subdued prices toward the year-end as many institutional traders and market participants close their books ahead of the holiday season.
Additionally, at year-end, economic data releases and major policy decisions are typically fewer, reducing catalysts for significant price volatility.
The yellow metal was set to edge up 0.3% for the week after losing more than 1% in the previous one. A strong dollar after the Fed’s hawkish shift last week has continued to put downward pressure on bullion.
Gold under pressure from strong Dollar
The was slightly higher in Asian trade on Friday and hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices had fallen sharply after the Fed policy meeting indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025, against previous expectations of four.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
Other precious metals were also muted on Friday. were unchanged at $954.50 an ounce, while were steady at $30.380 an ounce.
Copper gains on concentrate shortage news, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, copper prices were higher after a Reuters report showed China’s leading copper smelters have set lower processing charge guidance for the first quarter of 2025 compared to this quarter, reflecting an ongoing shortage of copper concentrates.
At a meeting in Shanghai, representatives from the China Smelters Purchase Team agreed on new rates for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges, setting them at $25 per metric ton and 2.5 cents per pound, down 28.6% from the fourth-quarter guidance of $35 per ton and 3.5 cents per pound.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $8,950.50 a ton, while February edged down 0.3% to $4.0945 a pound.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Oil prices edge higher on China stimulus, lower U.S. inventories forecast
Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as a holiday-shortened week led to thin volumes, while traders exercised caution around the year-end while assessing the outlook for the upcoming year.
At 07:28 ET (12:28 GMT), were slightly up at $73.74 a barrel, and edged higher to $69.71 a barrel.
Trading volumes were thin ahead of the new year’s start as many institutional investors and traders typically take time off during the holiday season. Additionally, year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing reduce trading activity.
EIA data awaited after API shows fall in US crude inventories
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is scheduled to release its weekly report later on Friday.
These figures provide insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market, influencing pricing and economic decisions.
Earlier this week, media reports stated that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, citing the American Petroleum Institute (API) data.
“Probably we are moving back up again in anticipation of a crude draw in the U.S.,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Some support for oil might come soon from cold weather supporting demand.”
This drawdown indicates a tightening supply in the U.S. crude oil market, which has implications for global oil prices. Following the API’s report, oil prices had edged higher, supported by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China and the reported decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
China stimulus hopes persist
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the World Bank revised its economic growth forecast for China upward for 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak household and business confidence, combined with challenges in the property sector, would continue to hinder growth in the coming year.
The outlook for oil demand hinges on the hope that China, the world’s largest oil importer, can revive its economy, especially as there are concerns about a potential oversupply due to expected increases in production from non-OPEC countries.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Shell shuts down oil processing unit to investigate leak, Singapore’s port authority says
(Reuters) -Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at its Pulau Bukom facility to investigate a suspected leak, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) and National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Friday.
The oil company estimates that a few tonnes of refined oil products, along with cooling water discharge used in the refining process, have leaked.
Pulau Bukom, site of Singapore’s first refinery, now houses Shell (LON:)’s only energy and chemicals park in Asia, according to the company’s website.
Shell confirmed in an emailed statement to Reuters that oil sheens were spotted alongside a wharf on Dec. 26, 2024 at Shell Energy and Park Singapore.
The company stated it has taken steps to contain the leak and prevent it from spreading into the sea and has deployed boats alongside the MPA to clean up light oil sheens observed near the leak site.
The MPA said investigations are ongoing, and navigation traffic in the area remains unaffected.
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