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Commodities

Oil futures prices are getting cheaper, but the rate of decline is gradually slowing down

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A separate cause for concern is the supply of Russian oil to world markets. Oil futures prices today continue to decline amid concerns about the recession and the news about the restoration of production in Libya.

On July 22, 2022, the price of Brent oil futures for October at the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures decreased by 1.11%, to $98.38/barrel. The price of October oil futures of the Brent brand on the London ICE Futures exchange decreased by 1.11% to $98.38/bbl.

Oil futures WTI for September at electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by 1.71%, to $94.70/bbl. The price went down by 1.71% to $94.70 per barrel. Brent crude oil went down in price by 2.15% and WTI crude oil – by 2.75%.

Crude Oil Futures: Oil Continues to Decline on July 25, 2022

But the rate of decline is gradually slowing. The price of October oil futures for Brent on ICE Futures fell by 0.92%, to $97.47/bbl. The price of October oil futures of Brent on ICE Futures decreased by 0.92% to $97.47 per barrel. On electronic trading, NYMEX crude oil futures WTI for September fell by 0.89% to $93.86/barrel. US dollars per barrel.

U.S. natural gas futures are near $8.2/bbl. USD/mln Btu (USD 294/1000 m3). On July 22, 2022, natural gas futures for September on the NYMEX rose 4.86% to $8.195/million Btu. USD/mln Btu.

On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. On July 25, 2022, quotes rose 0.65% to $8.248/million Btu. Gas quotations in Europe are holding above $1,700/mln Btu. USD/1000m3. August gas futures on ICE Futures’ TTF hub in the Netherlands were trading at 164.9 Euro/MWh (USD 1763.8/1000m3) by 11:30 Moscow time on July 25, which was 3.15% higher than the previous day’s settlement price.

Oil futures prices start new week with decline 

Oil futures prices start the new week lower on another wave of recession fears and reduced supply worries. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet on July 26-27, 2022 and expect another 75 bps hike in the benchmark interest rate.

A serious tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy, according to many experts, could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

The head of the U.S. Treasury D. Yellen, in an interview to TV channel NBC on July 24, admitted that the U.S. economy is slowing down, while denying the recession.

Д. Yellen said that the economy is slowing down against a background of strong recovery growth in the post-pandemic period – in 2021, the U.S. economy grew by 5.5%. According to the minister, the economy is not in a period of recession, but in a period of change; when growth slows down, it is necessary, and appropriate to the situation.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. economy in the 1st quarter of 2022 decreased by 1.6% in annual terms, and expert estimates indicate that the decline continued into the 2nd quarter of 2022. Thus, the decline lasted for the 2nd consecutive quarter, which is considered the definition of a technical recession.

The market paid attention to data from Libya

National Oil Corporation (NOC) on July 23, 2022 reported that after the lifting of the force majeure on the fields and export ports, daily production increased from 560 kbpd as of July 11 to 860 kbpd as of July 22. Within 2 weeks, NOC plans to increase its oil production to 1.2mbpd.

The growth of active rigs in the USA continues to slow down

According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US rose by 2 units to 758 in the week ended July 22, 2022. The number of active oil rigs remained unchanged at 599.

The number of gas rigs increased by 2 units to 155. The number of multifunctional rigs remained unchanged at 4.

Separate cause for market concern are Russian oil supplies to the world market

On July 21, 2022, the EU adjusted the sanctions regime against Russia, allowing Russian state companies to supply oil to third countries to limit the risks to global energy security.

However, the market sees risks to Russia’s oil supply due to the US and G7 plans to set ceiling prices for Russian oil by December 2022.

Russia may stop supplying oil to countries that will introduce a price ceiling for Russian oil, which will provoke a rise in global prices.


Commodities

Gold prices edge lower but keep record highs in sight ahead of inflation test

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Investing.com– Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday but remained close to recent peaks as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin cutting interest rates.

The yellow metal benefited from safe haven buying following a severe risk-off move across markets last week, which was triggered by concerns over slowing economic growth. 

Spot prices came within spitting distance of a record high on Friday, but then pulled back as the advanced ahead of this week’s inflation reading.

fell 0.1% to $2,502.07 an ounce, while expiring in December fell 0.1% to $2,531.0 an ounce by 00:22 ET (04:22 GMT). 

Gold steady with Inflation, Fed meeting in sight 

Focus this week is squarely on inflation data, due on Wednesday, for more cues on the U.S. economy. 

Any signs of cooling inflation are likely to spur increased bets on lower interest rates in the coming months- a scenario that bodes well for gold. 

Wednesday’s inflation reading comes just a week before a , where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Expectations of the September cut were also a key driver of gold’s recent gains, given that the cut is likely to kick off an easing cycle by the Fed.

Lower rates bode well for gold, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.

Other precious metals fell on Tuesday, having largely lagged gold in recent weeks. fell 0.1% to $945.0 an ounce, while fell 0.2% to $28.590 an ounce. 

Copper edges lower, Chinese trade data brings little cheer 

Among industrial metals, prices retreated on Tuesday, taking little support from data that showed some economic resilience in top importer China. 

China’s unexpectedly grew in August on strength in the country’s . But laggard offset cheer over this trend, given that they signaled sluggish demand in the country.

China’s overall copper imports shrank 12.3% year-on-year in August, although they were still in positive territory for the first eight months of the year. 

The soft import data came following a string of weak readings on China’s economy over the past week, which raised concerns over slowing growth in the world’s biggest copper importer.

The data, coupled with a broader risk-off move in global markets, saw copper nursing steep losses over the past week.

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Commodities

Oil prices steady with storm disruptions, demand fears in focus

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Investing.com– Oil prices steadied in Asian trade on Tuesday as traders sought to gauge the impact of Tropical Storm Francine on U.S. oil production, while concerns over sluggish demand remained in play. 

Prices were nursing steep losses from the prior week amid renewed concerns that global oil demand will slow, especially following middling economic readings from top importer China. The prospect of oversupply and increased production also weighed. 

But oil prices rebounded on Monday as sentiment improved. 

expiring in November were flat at $71.86 a barrel, while steadied at $67.90 a barrel by 22:37ET (02:37 GMT). 

Tropical storm Francine set to batter Gulf of Mexico 

A slew of oil companies were seen stopping production and refining activities in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Francine made its way towards the U.S. mid-South.

The storm is expected to potentially strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall, and is expected to lash the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts with heavy rain and gale winds this week. 

The storm could potentially cause extended disruptions in the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico, reducing crude supplies in North America and presenting a tighter near-term outlook for oil markets. 

This notion offered oil markets some support, helping them recover a measure of bruising losses logged last week.

Oil battered by demand concerns, China woes 

Oil prices were nursing steep losses in recent sessions as markets fretted over slowing demand, especially in top crude importer China.

A string of weak economic readings from the country for August drummed up concerns over slowing growth, as did signs that increasing electric vehicle adoption was also denting fuel demand. 

Beyond China, caution over U.S. interest rates also weighed on oil markets, especially ahead of key inflation data due later this week.

The inflation reading comes just a week before a Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. 

 

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Commodities

Oil dips as weaker demand counters storm Francine

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By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices gave up the previous day’s gains on Tuesday as a weaker demand outlook offset U.S. supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine and global oil oversupply risks that continue to weigh on the market.

futures were down 95 cents, or 1.3%, at $70.89 a barrel by 1214 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 96 cents, or 1.4%, to $67.75.

Both benchmarks had risen about 1% on Monday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Tuesday that global oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from previously projected growth of 2.11 million bpd.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.

The weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply kept the market suppressed.

Chinese data on Monday showed consumer inflation accelerated in August to its fastest in half a year, though domestic demand remained fragile, and producer price deflation worsened.

And while data released on Tuesday showed China’s exports grew at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years in August, imports disappointed against a backdrop of depressed domestic demand.

“The message from China is simple but loud and reverberates throughout the globe,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga, adding that the country is struggling to encourage spending and boost sluggish demand.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard ordered the closure of all operations at Brownsville and other small Texas ports on Monday evening as Tropical Storm Francine barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico. Corpus Christi port remained open with restrictions.

The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly and become a hurricane on Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:) said it shut in output at its Hoover offshore production platform while Shell (LON:) paused drilling operations at two platforms. Chevron (NYSE:) also began shutting in oil and gas output at two of its offshore platforms.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to publish its short-term energy outlook, with forecasts for the global market and oil output.

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