Commodities
Oil gains 3% after OPEC+ delays output hike, US election in focus
By Arunima Kumar
(Reuters) -Oil prices rose about 3% on Monday on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a crucial week that includes the U.S. presidential election.
U.S. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday’s Election Day, and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.
futures were up $2.13 per barrel, or 2.9%, to $75.23 a barrel at 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $2.15 a barrel, or 3.1%, to $71.64.
On Sunday, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December, with an increase already delayed from October because of falling prices and weak demand.
The grouping had been due to increase output by 180,000 bpd from December.
“Considering ongoing economic growth concerns, we believe the group wants more clarity on the economic impact of the interest rate cuts in the US and the fiscal and monetary policy easing in China,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“The group should also have clarity on the next U.S. president and the impact of compensation cuts from countries that produced above their ceiling in the past.”
Speaking at an industry event in Abu Dhabi, the CEO of Italian energy company Eni said that OPEC+ oil supply cuts and recent efforts to unwind them had increased volatility in energy markets and hampered investment in new production.
Oil price volatility will be high this week, analysts said, with market participants awaiting Iran’s response to recent Israeli attacks and the U.S. election outcome.
On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios said Israeli intelligence suggested that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.
“Senior advisors to Trump have expressed strong support for striking Iranian nuclear facilities and bringing back maximum pressure sanctions,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
A Harris administration, on the other hand, would probably not look to ratchet up sanctions pressure and would focus on bringing the war to an end as quickly as possible, Croft added.
Investor focus this week will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve as economists expect interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points on Thursday, and on China, where the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress meets from Monday to Friday and is expected to approve additional stimulus to boost the slowing economy.
Commodities
US deepens sanctions on Iran’s ‘shadow’ oil fleet
By Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Florence Tan
WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The Biden administration on Tuesday ramped up sanctions on Iran, targeting 35 entities and vessels it said carried illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets as part of what the U.S. Treasury Department called Tehran’s “shadow fleet.”
The sanctions build on those imposed on Oct. 11 and come in response to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel and to its announced nuclear escalations, the Treasury Department said in a statement.
“Iran continues to funnel revenues from its petroleum trade toward the development of its nuclear program, proliferation of its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology, and sponsorship of its regional terrorist proxies, risking further destabilizing the region,” Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley Smith said.
“The United States remains committed to disrupting the shadow fleet of vessels and operators that facilitate these illicit activities, using the full range of our tools and authorities.”
Such sanctions target key sectors of Iran’s economy with the aim of denying the government funds for its nuclear and missile programs. The move generally prohibits any U.S. individuals or entities from doing any business with the targets and freezes any U.S.-held assets.
Eight of the 21 sanctioned ships are loaded with oil, while another was on its way to a Russian port to lift a cargo, shipping data on LSEG Workspace showed.
Suezmax-sized tanker Min Hang loaded Russian Urals crude at Ust-Luga port on Nov. 17 and is heading to Port Said in Egypt while Vesna, an Aframax-sized tanker, is heading to the Pacific port of Kozmino to load Russian ESPO Blend crude on Dec. 8, the data showed.
The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Phonix was due to discharge its cargo at the port of Rizhao in China’s eastern province of Shandong while medium-range tanker Rio Napo was set to offload its naphtha cargo at Sohar port on Dec. 4.
Off Malaysia, fully-laden VLCC Elva is anchored along with VLCCs FT Island and Yuri which appear to be empty.
VLCC Bertha is moving away from western Africa after loading Nigerian Egina crude.
Two other tankers – Lady Lucy and Merope – are loaded with fuel oil while tanker Tonil is carrying naphtha.
Commodities
Gold prices steady as S.Korea turmoil spurs some haven demand; Powell awaited
Investing.com– Gold prices rose marginally in Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand, although anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders to the sidelines.
The yellow metal saw some relief this week as fears of a collapse in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire also spurred haven demand. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar, as the greenback soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S. rates.
rose 0.1% to $2,646.53 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.1% to $2,668.60 an ounce by 23:25 ET (04:25 GMT).
S.Korea in focus after failed martial law declaration
South Korea President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday, although he swiftly rescinded the move after it was heavily opposed by the Parliament and citizens.
The Parliament entirely voted against martial law, while South Korea’s opposition party also called for Yoon’s impeachment, putting the country into its worst political crisis since the 1980s.
Political uncertainty in the country undermined investor sentiment across Asia, given that South Korea is regarded as a pillar for the East Asian economy. This spurred some safe haven demand for gold.
Increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon also spurred some safe haven buying, after Israel threatened to hold Lebanon’s government accountable for a collapse in its ceasefire with Hezbollah. Both Israel and the militant group launched strikes against each other over the past week, violating a U.S.-brokered truce.
Metal markets pressured by dollar strength before Powell speech
Broader metal prices were muted on Wednesday as traders awaited an address by for more cues on interest rates.
Powell is set to speak later in the day, with his address coming just weeks before the Fed’s final meeting for the year.
While the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, the long term outlook for rates has grown more uncertain in the face of sticky inflation and inflationary policies under Trump.
This uncertainty sparked sharp gains in the , pressuring metal prices across the board.
Other precious metals, including and , moved little on Wednesday. Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,096.0 a ton, while February fell 0.2% to $4.1895 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices steady ahead of imminent OPEC+ decision; geopolitical turmoil in focus
By Arunima Kumar
(Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, with traders expecting OPEC+ to announce an extension to supply cuts this week while heightened geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment.
futures were up 5 cents, or 0.07%, at $73.67 a barrel by 1214 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $69.90.
On Tuesday, Brent posted its biggest gain in two weeks, rising by 2.5%.
A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea’s curtailed declaration of martial law and a rebel offensive in Syria that threatens to draw in forces from several oil-producing countries all lent support to oil prices, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday that it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and that its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.
In South Korea, meanwhile, lawmakers have submitted a bill to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law on Tuesday, which was reversed within hours, sparking a political crisis in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
However, the bullish momentum hasn’t pushed crude past the $75 resistance, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical and economic developments may be waning, said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone.
“With OPEC+ widely expected to extend its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut into the first quarter of 2025, prices are likely to stay range-bound unless a new catalyst emerges,” Wu said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are likely extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter next year when members meet on Thursday, industry sources told Reuters.
OPEC+ has been looking to phase out supply cuts through next year.
“Neither geopolitics and OPEC+ action nor sanguine financial data will alter the underlying fundamental outlook. Protracted attempts to push oil towards $80 a barrel will be reined in by supply checks and loose oil balances,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.
U.S., crude oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. [API/S]
Gasoline stocks also rose, by 4.6 million barrels, even though the week included Thanksgiving, when demand typically rises.
Official data on oil stocks from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude stocks to decline by 700,000 barrels and gasoline stocks to rise by 639,000 barrels.
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