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Oil gains as Gaza ceasefire talks in focus

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Oil gains as Gaza ceasefire talks in focus
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Oil rig pumpjacks, also known as thirsty birds, extract crude from the Wilmington Field oil deposits area near Long Beach, California July 30, 2013. REUTERS/David McNew/File Photo

By Paul Carsten

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices maintained upward momentum on Tuesday as investors awaited the result of top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken’s efforts in the Middle East to halt the Gaza war and quell tensions in a major oil-producing region.

futures gained 55 cents to $78.54 a barrel by 1224 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 48 cents to $73.26. Both contracts gained nearly 1% on Monday, rising for the first time in four sessions.

“The signs of de-escalation in the Middle-Eastern crisis are missing and continue to extend some support to ailing oil prices,” said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

As part of his trip to the region, Blinken met Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler on Monday, and on Tuesday landed in Cairo for his meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Palestinians hope the visit will clinch a truce before a threatened Israeli assault on Rafah, a border city where about half the Gaza Strip population is sheltering.

The ceasefire offer, delivered to Hamas last week by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, awaits a reply from militants who say they want more guarantees it will end the four-month-old war.

At the same time, the United States continued its campaign against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whose attacks on shipping vessels have disrupted global oil trading routes. The group has described their recent attacks as acts of solidarity with Palestinians.

The U.S. strikes “do not point to an easing of tensions”, said Commerzbank (ETR:) analysts Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch in a note.

Yet souring demand expectations limited oil’s gains.

Analysts said expectations of “higher for longer” interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere plus China’s shaky economy could cap consumption.

CMC Markets (LON:) analyst Leon Li also said it would be “difficult to return to previous highs” given that the run of strong economic indicators from the U.S. would likely lose steam.

“Layoffs are still increasing. This means that in the long term, the (oil) demand will decline,” Li said.

On the supply side, market participants are awaiting industry data due later on Tuesday on stockpiles. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to Feb. 2.

Commodities

Oil prices rise on China stimulus amid Mideast ceasefire push

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By Ron Bousso

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose to $75 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors weighed the impact of China’s stimulus measures to boost its economy, and concerns over tension in the Middle East persisted.

futures for December delivery rose 68 cents, or 0.92%, to $74.97 at 1033 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery were up 66 cents at $71.22 a barrel on the contract’s last day as the front month.

The more actively traded WTI futures for December delivery, which will soon become the front month, rose 70 cents, or 1%, to $70.74 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI rose nearly 2% on Monday, recouping some of last week’s more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and the market nervous that Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran could disrupt oil supply.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday, the first stop on a Middle East tour in which he will seek to revive talks to end the Gaza war and contain the spillover conflict in Lebanon.

“Crude oil prices have been fluctuating in response to mixed news from the Middle East, as the situation alternates between escalation and de-escalation,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities.

The market continued to weigh the implications for fuel demand of China’s stimulus measures and increased U.S. economic activity, he added

Beijing on Monday cut benchmark lending rates as part of stimulus measures to revive the economy as data last week showed it had grown at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter.

China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 as the world’s No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

© Reuters. A tug boat pushes an oil barge through New York Harbor past the Statue of Liberty in New York City, U.S., May 24, 2022.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/ File Photo

Still, Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:) is “fairly bullish” on China’s oil demand especially in light of the government’s stimulus package which aims to boost growth, the head of the state-owned Saudi oil giant said on Monday.

oil stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

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Commodities

Oil prices rebound from early losses; Middle East tensions persist

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose Tuesday, rebounding after earlier losses, as traders digested ongoing tensions in the Middle East as well as slowing demand in major oil consumer China.

At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT),  rose 0.7% to $74.77 a barrel, while gained 0.8% to $70.58 a barrel. 

China rate cut, Middle East tensions provide support 

The oil markets have taken positive cues from Monday’s interest rate cut by the Chinese central bank.

However, gains have been limited as this move comes as part of a swathe of recent stimulus efforts from the country which have been greeted with limited optimism, as Beijing failed to provide details on the timing and scale of the planned measures. 

Concerns over a bigger Middle East conflict have also provided support, with the explosion of a drone near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s house raising the prospect of an escalation in the conflict.

The focus is largely on Israel’s potential retaliation against Iran over an early-October attack, although reports last week said Israel will not target the country’s oil and nuclear infrastructure.

“Tensions in the Middle East continue to be reflected in the options market,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “The volatility skew shows that calls are becoming increasingly more expensive than puts as participants buy protection in the event of a price spike, given the uncertain geopolitical environment. This also ties in with the larger traded volumes we have seen in call options recently.”  

IEA warns China will continue to weigh on oil demand

That said, the crude market still dropped around 7% last week after Chinese growth data disappointed.

International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warned on Monday that weakness in top importer China will continue to weigh on global oil demand in the coming years.

Birol’s comments, made in an interview with Bloomberg, came after both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently cut its demand growth forecast on concerns over China. 

China is the world’s biggest oil importer, and has been grappling with a prolonged downturn in economic growth, which is expected to quash the country’s appetite for crude.

Increased electric vehicle adoption in the country is also expected to dampen fuel demand. 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this artcile.)

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Safe-haven demand secures gold near all-time highs

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By Anushree Mukherjee

(Reuters) – Gold climbed on Tuesday, trading not too far away from the record peak it hit in the last session, as concerns over rising geopolitical tensions, U.S. election uncertainties and prospects of central banks lowering interest rates boosted demand.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,732.06 per ounce by 1143 GMT and U.S. gained 0.3% to $2,746.50.

Bullion, considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, hit an all-time high of $2,740.37 on Monday. The non-yielding asset has gained 32% so far this year.

“Uncertainty is the key word at the moment and safe-haven like gold is actually the most important refuge asset possibly in traders’ portfolios at the moment,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see the $2,800 being touched at some point,” Evangelista said, adding that rate cuts, purchases from some central banks, geopolitical instability and uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election are boosting demand for the metal.

Gold’s rally comes despite a firmer U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and the strength of gold’s momentum has outweighed weaker physical demand and higher supply, analysts said. [USD/] [US/]

“The precious metal could keep printing never-before-seen prices as long as markets can keep shrugging off the ongoing rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. [USD/]

“Sustained net inflows into bullion-backed ETFs should also preserve the upside momentum in .” [GOL/ETF]

Global physically-backed gold ETFs saw their fifth consecutive monthly inflow in September, attracting $1.4 billion, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

From the technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 74, suggests that gold prices moved into “overbought” territory. An RSI above 70 indicates a commodity is overbought. [TECH/]

Spot silver rose 1.9% to $34.39 per ounce after hitting its highest since late-2012 in the last session.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Gold Bullion from the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX) is seen in this picture taken in New York, September 15, 2011.    REUTERS/Mike Segar   (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS)/File Photo

“We should see silver cross above $35 before the November 5th polling day, provided the tailwinds for precious metals remain intact,” Tan added.

Platinum rose about 1.2% to $1,015.33 per ounce. Palladium added 2% to $1,072.35.

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